Categories
Economics

[977] Of the Malaysian economy in 2007

How would the Malaysian economy perform in 2007?

It would most likely depend on several major issues.

First, in no particular order, is the spur of government spending due to the Ninth Malaysia Plan.

Second, the Visit Malaysia Year.

Third, a slowdown of demand for electronics.

I can’t think of a fourth factor but I’d be grateful for reasonable suggestions.

Here, I’d like to make a connection between government spending and the reduction in demand for electronics good.

The Malaysian government spending, which includes the second Penang bridge, a number of highways as well as a new city nearby Port Tanjung Pelepas, should provide students of economics some interesting natural experiment. Why?

It will test the Mundell-Fleming model.

According to the model, an increase in government spending has a negative effect on the net export component of the GDP. Let me explain.

A government spending increase will temporarily increase the GDP. This makes sense because government expenditure is one of the four components of GDP and as such, it directly affects the GDP. That increase however will cause the local interest rate to go above the world interest rate. Higher local interest rate vis-a-vis global interest rate will cause capital to flow into the local economy. That inflow will make the local currency, the Malaysian Ringgit in this case, to appreciate. Such appreciation will encourage import and discourage export. In other word, net export should see a reduction once the economy reaches some sort of equilibrium.

Earlier this week, the New Straits Times talk about the possibility of a bull run. In its reports, several analysts predict that the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange would hit 1,300 in 2007:

The KL Composite Index is expected to hit 1,300 points next year — a high last reached in 1994. Analysts say the stock market can sustain its rally on the back of a positive economic outlook, implementation of the 9MP projects and a stable interest rate…

What do I think of that?

I haven’t made up my mind yet but I’m more interested to see how the Malaysian net export component would behave in 2007 and 2008. According to Mundell-Fleming and keeping in mind that there’s a demand slowdown for electronics — Malaysia is a big export of electronics — we are set to see a reduction in Malaysian trade balance. Ceteris paribus, of course.

p/s – somebody pointed out to me that instead of just testing Mundell-Fleming, it would also test a variety of other things. True. But here, I’m interested in this particular subject.

Categories
Politics & government

[976] Of when unvarnished means distorted

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak takes Orwell to heart:

PUTRAJAYA: Future Umno general assemblies may not be telecast live, given the flak the party has received over this year’s proceedings.

Party deputy president Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said many people felt that the telecast was an inappropriate thing to do because it gave a distorted view of Umno proceedings.

Dear sir, how could such speeches be distorted when it were directly heard by all Malaysians that cared to listen and personally uttered by the speakers, the representatives of UMNO?

Unvarnished truth is never a distorted view.

If the representatives in UMNO speak like what they spoke, in one way or another, it reflects the party, whether a person likes it or not. Those representatives, after all, represent the party’s grassroots. So, when a majority of those representatives spew hatred, then it shows something is wrong. The sooner we all realize this, the easier we as Malaysians could treat our disease that plagues us all.

Well, theoretically, at least.

Categories
Economics Environment

[975] Of 300 MV coal power plant versus 2400 MV hydroelectric dam

Yesterday, The Star reported that there’s an opposition to a plan to construct a coal power plant in Sabah:

LAHAD DATU: A coal-fired power plant in an area earmarked for eco-tourism in Silam is yet to get off the ground but already it is stoking up anger among several groups in this part of east coast Sabah.

The most vocal opponents to the 300MW plant, said to cost between RM1.2bil and RM1.3bil, are a group of environmentalists, social activists and local businessmen in this booming agriculture town.

They fear the plant will do more harm than good for them and the environment stretching from Darvel Bay to the pristine Danum Valley forest, some 80km away.

According to officials, the power plant would utilize clean coal technology:

KUALA LUMPUR: The technology used for coal-based power plants is different compared to that used previously, Deputy Energy, Water and Communications Minister Datuk Shaziman Abu Mansor said.

There has been a lot of talk of clean coal technology for the past few years in Malaysia but I’m still skeptical on how clean the power plants, including the one in Sabah, would be. Furthermore, I’m unsure how the power plant plans to store the carbon byproduct, i.e. waste.

Regardless the technology used, I wonder though, why do we need a 300 megawatts power plant when we are going to have a 2,400 megawatts Bakun hydroelectric dam soon? Why do we need another 300 MV coal power plant when most output of the 2,400 MV dam would not be used?

Not too long ago, the Sarawak state government wanted to build a metal smelter plant as an economic justification of the construction of the mightily huge Bakun dam. Without the smelter, the state government believes that the construction of the dam wouldn’t be justified, especially when the plan to connect the Malay Peninsula with Borneo via an underwater cable was scrapped due to the Asian financial crisis of the last decade. If the operator of dam really couldn’t find a buyer for its electricity, surely the Bakun dam could accommodate whatever the Sabah coal plant would accommodate. By the way, the Bakun dam is expected to become operational by mid-2009.

Perhaps, certain engineering issues regarding electricity transmission between Bakun, Sarawak and Sabah necessitates the construction of the new coal power plant in Malaysian Borneo?

If there’s none, then somebody better explain.

Categories
Books, essays and others Politics & government

[974] Of welcome President Bush

Hello Mr. President. You might have notice all those protests in Indonesia held with respect to your visit. Well:

I believe that history will make very clear that President Bush shamelessly exploited the emotions around 9/11 for political purposes. He used those 9/11 emotions to take far-right Republican domestic agenda on taxes, the environment, and social issues from 9/10—an agenda for which he had no popular mandate—and drive it into a 9/12 world. In doing so, Mr. Bush not only drove a wedge between Americans and between Americans and the world, he drove a wedge between America and its own history and identity. His administration transformed the United States into “the United States of Fighting Terrorism.” This is the real reason, in my view, that so many people in the world dislike President Bush so intensely. They feel that he has taken away something very dear to them—an America that exports hope, not fear.

We need our president to restore September 11 to its rightful place on the calendar—as the day after September 10 and before September 12. We must never let it become a day that defines us. Because ultimately September 11 is about them—the bad guys—not about us.

We’re about the Fourth of July. We’re about 11/9.

— Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat.

Welcome Mr. President to the Malay Archipelago.

Categories
Economics Liberty

[973] Mengenai pengkhianat bangsa

Kadang-kala, terguris rasanya hati ini mendengar rakan-rakan memanggil diri ini sebagai pengkhianat bangsa. Walaupun terasa, aku tidak berminat untuk menukar pendirianku hanya kerana perasaanku tercabar. Aku percaya, perasaanku tidak setanding fikiranku. Selagi dasar-dasar penindasan masih berdiri tegak dengan angkuhnya, selagi tidak diyakinkan kepada ku dasar-dasar penindasan itulah yang terbaik untuk tanahair ini, untuk alam ini, selagi itu akan aku mempertahankan pemikiranku. Walaupun jatuh tertumbuk serta keris terbenam di perut, darah Melayu mengalir di tangan Melayu.

Bagi ku, bukan susah untuk membezakan sesuatu yang jelas buruk daripada yang baik. Hanya kematangan fikiran dan kejujuran sahaja diperlukan untuk mengenali perbezaan di antara dua itu. Jika seseorang itu melakukan sesuatu kesalahan dengan sengaja mahupun tidak, terutamanya jika seseorang itu adalah seorang pemimpin, tegurlah. Janganlah kita menyorokkan kesalahannya, merasakan seolah-olah, kerana beliau pemimpin bangsa, beliau perlu dipertahankan. Beliau juga hanya manusia biasa. Bila pula beliau dilantik menjadi rasul, bebas dari kesilapan?

Janganlah engkau berkata kepada aku yang kita Melayu, kita perlu mempertahankan pemimpin-peminpin Melayu, walau apapun yang berlaku. Janganlah engkau berkata, kita Melayu, kita perlu taat kepada pemimpin demi bangsa. Tidakkah engkau sedar yang ketaatan yang buta membawa padah?

Lihatlah Tuah. Lihatlah bagaimana dia sanggup melupakan segala yang tidak adil, demi raja. Sanggupkan engkau membutakan matamu kepada semua yang tidak adil demi ketaatan kepada pemimpin bangsa?

Pada ku, Jebat jauh lebih hebat. Pada ku, raja adil disembah, raja zalim disanggah.

Apabila aku melantik memimpin, aku bukannya menjual maruahku kepadanya. Aku melantik memimpin untuk melakukan perkara yang aku mahu dilaksanakan. Bodohlah aku jika aku menjadi seekor lembu yang ditarik hidungnya oleh tuannya untuk dikorbankan, taat sehingga terlambat untuk menukar fikiran.

Mungkin engkau akan berkata, “tetapi tidakkah engkau sedar ada di antara ahli-ahli bangsa-bangsa yang lain yang mahu melemahkan Melayu, yang benci Melayu. Yang engkau memecah-belahkan Melayu dengan tidak menyokong pemimpin bangsa? Yang bersatu kita teguh, bercerai kita roboh.”

Aku mengakui yang itu benar, ada yang membenci Melayu. Tetapi jawapan kepada kebencian bukannya kebencian. Sifat benci-membenci hanya akan memburukkan lagi keadaan yang sedia keruh. Dan aku bersejutu, kita perlu bersatu untuk menjadi kuat. Tetapi biarlah kita bersatu di pihak yang benar. Tiada gunanya bersatu tetapi salah. Jika pemimpin itu gagal, ketepikanlah. Apabila pemimpin itu gagal, itulah masanya kita memerlukan orang yang baru. Jika benar engkau sayang kepada bangsa ini lebih daripada ku, kenapakah engkau patuh kepada ketuamu yang telah gagal membangunkan bangsamu? Yang menggagalkan bangsamu? Bangsamu dan bangsaku akan gagal jika pemimpin yang gagal itu dibenarkan untuk terus melakukan kegagalan tanpa segan silu. Aku lebih rela berpecah dari terus jatuh tersungkur kerana kita enggan berubah.

Bercakap tentang bersatu, ketaatan kepada bangsa tidak bermaksud ketaatan kepada pemimpin. Pemimpin yang mahu engkau percaya kepada sebaliknya hanya berminat tentang dirinya, bukan bangsa. Mengapa pula engkau percaya pemimpin-pemimpin itu membantu Melayu apabila Melayu di kampung masih miskin tapi dirinya sendiri semakin hari semakin kaya?

Percayakah engkau kepada pemimpin-pemimpinmu itu yang hari demi hari, berteriak tentang hak-hak Melayu, tapi hanya rakan-rakan mereka yang telah kaya dibantu? Adakah engkau percaya yang dengan membantu Melayu-melayu yang kaya ini, Melayu-melayu yang miskin akan terbantu secara serentak?

Jika ya jawapanmu, maka tergamanlah aku. Tidakkah engkau sedar yang apa yang miskin terima hanya serbuk-serbuk roti, bukan roti itu sendiri? Aku fikir, jika benarlah kita hendak membantu yang miskin, tidak kiralah warna kulit, kita berikan yang miskin roti itu, bukannya serbuk-serbuk halus. Serbuk itu hanyalah sisa. Fahamkah engkau apakah itu sisa?

Mungkin aku terlampau kuat mendokong kebebasan pasaran dan tidak yakin akan tindakan-tindakan sosialis kurang percaya kepada dasar-dasar kebebasan. Tetapi, sekurang-kurangnya, apabila para sosialis ini berkata tentang pembasmian kemiskinan, mereka memberikan bantuan secara terus kepada yang miskin, bukan melalui yang kaya. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis itu menghadiahkan makanan yang segar kepada yang miskin, bukannya sisa. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis ini jujur dan tahu kebodohan di sebalik alasan-alasan serbuk-serbuk halus itu. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis ini tahu apa itu penipuan apabila mereka melihatnya. Ini membolehkan aku menghormati para sosialis itu lebih dari mu. Kejujuran itu sendiri membolehkan aku menghormati para sosialis itu lebih dari mu.

“Ya. Kita mesti taat kepada pemimpin-pemimpin bangsa kita. Endahkanlah serangan-serangan itu. Melayu-melayu ini bagaikan kacang lupakan kulit. Mereka hanya berbohong tentang dakwaan penipuan itu. Tidak mungkin pemimpin-pemimpin kita menipu kita. Mustahil! Engkau pengkhianat! Pengkhianat bangsa! Kita perlu menyokong pemimpin-pemimpin kita walau apa pun!”

Jika ketaatan yang engkau minta adalah buta, maka banggalah aku digelar pengkhianat. Aku lebih rela engkau mempersoalkan ketaatanku daripada suara hati aku mempersoalkan kejujuranku. Kebenaran merentasi semua, termasuk Tuah.