the __earthinc – Page 340 – By Hafiz Noor Shams

[1322] Of lesson from Japan

Post author By Hafiz Noor Shams
Post date Sunday, August 5 2007
3 Comments on [1322] Of lesson from Japan

The recent Turkish election, which saw the conservative AKP gaining control of the Turkish legislature with a strong majority, taught the world the importance of a healthy economy. The recent Japanese upper house election unmistakably rings the same bell:

The vote was a rejection of Mr Abe’s priorities, which emphasise ideological issues of nationhood, such as instilling patriotic education, rewriting the pacifist constitution and expanding the role of the Japanese armed forces. Many Japanese are not opposed to such measures, but they rate them far below pocketbook concerns: a shortage of decent jobs for the young; stagnant wages; rising health-care costs; uncertain pensions; and swathes of the depopulated countryside missing out on the economic recovery that has taken hold in Tokyo and other big cities. Mr Abe’s blunder, contend Richard Katz and Peter Ennis from the Oriental Economist, a newsletter, was to think that the recovery would take care of these concerns by itself. [Keeping his head just above water. The Economist. August 2 2007]

What lesson do you think the upcoming Malaysian election will teach us?

Parties like DAP and PKR better memorize this lesson to heart before it is too late.

Tags Japan, Turkey

Liberty

[1321] Of your mandate is derived from the people, sir

Post author By Hafiz Noor Shams
Post date Sunday, August 5 2007
1 Comment on [1321] Of your mandate is derived from the people, sir

It is amusing how Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi yesterday said that he had granted freedom to Malaysians. In the Malay daily Utusan Mingguan today:

“Saya bagi banyak kebebasan dan semua orang boleh bersuara, macam-macam boleh cakap tetapi pandai-pandailah uruskan kebebasan, kalau tidak dihargai semuanya (kebebasan) akan hilang” [Amaran PM — Keamanan boleh tergugat jika kebebasan bersuara disalah guna. Utusan Mingguan. August 4 2007]

That could be roughly translated into:

“I’ve granted freedom and all may speak freely but do practice freedom responsibly or else, it will disappear”

The Prime Minister forgets that he derives his mandate from the people; we, the people do not derive our rights from the PM.

Tags liberalism

Liberty

[1320] Mengenai fikir

Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan tukang karut itu;
Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan dalang wayang itu;
Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan ahli koporat itu;
Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan doktor jiwa itu;
Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan pakar kitab itu;
Fikir, selamatkah kita di tangan tuhan-tuhan itu;

— Mohamad Nasir Mohamad, Anak-anak Kita

Tags M. Nasir, song

Economics

[1319] Of has the time for a downturn come?

Post author By Hafiz Noor Shams
Post date Saturday, August 4 2007
No Comments on [1319] Of has the time for a downturn come?

In the US, the warning finally meant something:

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 2.7 percent yesterday, with much of the decline coming after Bear’s conference call started around 2 p.m. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 281.42 points, or 2.1 percent. And the dollar fell noticeably against the euro and the British pound.

While consumers continue to express confidence in the outlook for the economy, the government’s monthly employment report, released yesterday morning, added to worries about the spreading impact of the housing slump. The economy added only 92,000 jobs last month, down from 126,000 in June and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6 percent.

[…]

“I have never seen it happen so quickly,” said Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in Scottsdale, Ariz. “Banks always do these little cutbacks here and there. What they are doing now is a liquidity crunch. It’s a credit freeze.”

[…]

Despite all the worries about credit markets, however, the economy continues to plow ahead and even yesterday’s jobs report was not weak enough to suggest that the Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark short-term interest rate when it meets next week.

But the risks to the economy do seem serious enough that investors now expect the Fed to cut its rate to 5 percent, from 5.25 percent by November, based on the price of a trading instrument that is tied to Fed policy. And the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.68 percent from 4.77 percent Thursday evening.

[…]

Wall Street analysts say they are increasingly concerned that consumer spending will weaken as more people in housing and related sectors lose their jobs. They also worry that many homeowners will cut back as they find it harder to refinance or borrow against the value of their homes. [Markets Fall as Lender Woes Keep Mounting. NYT. August 4 2007]

Please do not look at the S&P 500. Instead, look at the issue in the housing sector.

That cold might spread to Malaysia. That huge government spending under the Ninth Malaysia Plan however could mitigate the effect of a slowing US economy, at a price of course.

Anyway, I am still holding on to that bet.