Categories
Economics

[313] Of the Hunt brothers

I’m tired of politics. Let’s shift some gears.

In my financial class today, again, the professor told an interesting story. This time, it was about the Hunt brothers, oil tycoons from Texas.

Back in the 70s, according to Freedom Investment, the Hunt was possibly the richest family in America. The professor in his usual confident tone said that two of the Hunt brothers decided to corner the silver market. Further search on the net revealed that they were trying to protect their asset from the rising inflation. At the time, inflation in the US was high; sometimes it was almost as high as 10%.

The Hunt tried to corner the market by buying a lot of future options, call options to be precise. For those who lack general financial knowledge, the future market is roughly a market where assets could be bought and sold at an agreed price at some future date.

Together with some help from their Arab friends, they created a silver pool and continuously gathered silver through future contracts. As time progressed, the silver pool got bigger and its supply in the public market steadily decreased. Then naturally, rumor about somebody was cornering the silver market came up but nobody did anything.

From about USD 2 per ounce, the poor’s gold price soared to more than USD 50 per ounce. Record price was USD 54. As the price was setting record, day by day, people thought that these, as the professor put it, Texas folks, would in the end sell off the silver and make a huge profit. However, that was not the case. People didn’t know that the reason the Hunt brothers’ created the pool to protect their wealth, not making profit. And thus, the silver market was continued to be pressed by, as what some would call, the rouge traders.

Industries related to silver started to feel the pain and that was enough to convince the Federal Reserve to jump in and act. The Fed with the New York Metals Market halt silver future trading and declared that no silver could be bought nor traded anymore for the time being. Just as a note, this might be an example on how free market might fail.

Immediately after the announcement, silver price crumbled from its peak price to about half in one day. Later, the price fell to about USD10. The bubble burst.

Unfortunately for the Hunt brothers, because they had accumulated almost all of the deliverable silver, they fell from grace and in the end, in the early 1980s, filed from bankruptcy. Jokingly, one of the brothers – roughly, quoting the professor – said “who cares about three billions anyway?”

Of course, that was said in a sarcastic manner.

Categories
Politics & government

[312] Of PAS and KeAdilan’s manifesto

I’ve read Keadilan and PAS’ joint manifesto yesterday and I must say that I am against some of the points presented.

The first point I presume is about civil rights. It says Keadilan and PAS would guarantee public institutions independence. Knowing PAS, I don’t think they mean it. PAS, if it had the power, would in a way turn Malaysia into an Islamic Republic. And so, it would have to influent public institutions in one way or another in order to make sure those institutions wouldn’t go against PAS. Some of these institutions, naturally the judiciary would go against most of PAS’ ideals because of human rights. Worse, I could see how PAS would use Islam in trying to influent or even silent those institutions.

The joint manifesto also promises to amend the information freedom act. I would assume they are actually seeking for a more lenient act. I am all for a more lenient act. Again, PAS with lenient information act? C’mon. Only a naive would believe that a fundamentalist would adhere to the free flow of information.

The second point concerns religion. I don’t give a damn about this but the first sub point asserts menghayati Islam sebagai cara hidup bagi umat Islam of which roughly means embracing Islam as a way of life. In my opinion, Islam has always been a way of life but it is up to the individual to practice it. If the manifesto asserts this, there is a chance that the government would very much get involved morally with its citizens. I am much against this. I believe the government has no rights to impose its moral on any of its citizens forcefully. My moral is my own. It’s not the government’s business.

The next point is about social well being. Keadilan and PAS promise to lower vehicles prices by 10%. Sounds good but a better one would to dissolve import tariff substantially. But 10% is better than nothing at all. Then it goes to elimination of toll. Being a consumer, hey, how could I say no?

Next, it touches about water and telephone charge. It pledges to reduce it by 20%. Being a green, I believe water should be free. But then again, 20% is better then nothing. The manifesto also would like to see all Malaysians owning a home. This should be hard and I think it’s merely propaganda. Lastly, it is about the minimum wage. Being somebody with an economic background, I must say I am against this. Minimum wage would increase unemployment rate in theory.

Then it is about security. Pure propaganda and I have nothing else to say about it.

Fifth point is a matter pertaining to governance. It wants to limit the Prime Minister post to two terms. I could go with that because I think it would somehow reduce the Prime Minister power that Mahathir once had. By saying this, I am not admitting that Mahathir was a bad guy but somebody like Mahathir could certainly have turned Malaysia into a Singapore-styled totalitarian government.

The fifth point also wants to make Petronas and BPR (the anti-corruption agency) answerable to the Parliament. I have no problem with BPR but Petronas is a private firm. It is no longer a government-owned firm. Therefore, Petronas should be treated like all other private firms.

Other then that, it shows that Keadilan and PAS want the delisting of FELDA from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. I agree with the delisting. FELDA was established to help rural development; it was never supposed to be a profit-based organization.

Finally, it wants to return backdated (if there was ever a backdated payment, that is) oil royalty to the state of Terengganu. No problem there. I also believe the Federal government owes money to the Terengganu.

Point six touches on education. It wants to make elementary and high school education compulsory. And I thought it is compulsory right now. So no comment yet on this.
According to the manifesto further, it wants to provide free textbooks to all students. No complaint.

Concerning higher learning institution, it wants to establish six new universities by 2008. A noble goal but I think there will be a shortage of instructors though the demand for new colleges is there.

Then it touches a point where it ticks me off. It wants to help to further develop racially based education system. I am totally against this and I don’t understand why Keadilan must pursue this. The only explanation is that they are trying to fish some votes from the other ethic groups. I have stated my stance and I will state it again – having three education systems for three races only encourages racism. I am against this. This blurs the difference between Keadilan and Barisan Nasional.

Furthermore, it wants help Sekolah Agama Rakyat (religious school). This is probably another reason why Keadlilan supports the three different education systems. It has to go with PAS demand for Sekolah Agama Rakyat. I am against this for the same reason why I am against the current education system. All Malaysians should go through only one system. If one doesn’t want to, then one should attend private school that receives no government aid.

Other details, they want to eliminate the 3% interest rate on federal education loan. Doesn’t really make economic sense but the government is supposed to help needy people anyway, so, it’s okay I guess.

Point seven is mainly about the health system. Most notably, it wants to deprivatize the health system. I am divided on this. Government-run health institutions have proven to be dreadfully inefficient but private institutions to some degree jack up the price. I seek a balance between those two and I think a subsidy would do a better job rather than having a totally privatized institution or totally nationalized system.

Eighth, it’s about commerce and it wants to cut down taxes. Yeay! But somehow, it also gives the impression that it would give out subsidy and thus, not helpful in the process of globalization. But I don’t know. It doesn’t say anything about subsidy explicitly.

Finally, the thing that I hold close to my heart, the environment. It is cooling to see Keadilan and PAS has a statement for the environment but more should have been included like pledging loyalty to the Kyoto Protocol.

Anyway, it pledges to stop all development detrimental to the ecology. I concur.
It wants to defend water cache areas and the forest reserves. Agreed. No foresting in such areas and the current government is not serious in combating illegal logging.

In summary, I agree with everything except where religion and education are concerned. I think the points related to both issues are backward sidesteps. On religion, no doubt PAS has a big influence on Keadilan and this is one reason why I am wary of supporting Keadilan. Also, I am against the manifesto promise to impose minimum wage.

On civil rights, though I do not doubt Keadilan’s sincerity, Keadilan’s alliance with PAS makes me think twice. I have no doubt if PAS came to power via Keadilan or by itself, civil rights will be limited greatly.

You could say that I don’t believe point 1 (civil rights) mainly because of PAS presence, though I agree with it. PAS civil rights guarantee is hypocritical.

I am fiercely against point 2 (religion).

Partially against point 3 (social welfare) due to minimum wage.

Impartial to point 4 (security).

Agreed to point 5 (governance).

Against point 6 mainly due to the manifesto support of the present racist system (education).

Divided on point 7 (health system).

Unclear on points 8 (commerce).

Agree to point 9 (environment) though I think there should be more to it.

Categories
Politics & government

[311] Of KeAdilan

I am currently impressed by Parti Keadilan Nasional, one of the parties rallying against Barisan Nasional.

Let me assess its basic manifesto briefly and compares it to what I believe in. It’s expanded manifesto can be found here.

1. To establish a society that is just and a nation that is democratic, progressive and united.

This is propaganda, too general and doesn’t mean a thing though it does provide a basic platform for a fight. There is nothing to argue here.

2. To promote respect for the system of Constitutional Monarchy, strengthen Parliamentary Democracy and support the rights and power of the people, whilst endeavouring always to improve the nation’s political framework in line with the wishes and interests of the people.

This point enforces the Constitution. I agree with it simply because Constitutional Monarch is a Malaysian tradition and should be preserved. Having a monarch may go against the idea of equality but I think some tradition should be preserved so that we will not forget our root. And I think this point maintains the equilibrium between equality and tradition which is good, especially in a conservative society.

3. To establish and promote the rule of just law, an independent mass media and judiciary, and institutions for security that uphold principles of professionalism.

Key point. I agree whole hearted.

4. To guarantee freedom of conscience, speech, movement, public assembly and association for all.

Basic rights of which Barisan Nasional fails to adhere. I agree with this point.

5. To espouse Islam as the religion of the Federation whilst ensuring that the rights of non-Muslims to freedom of religion and conscience are guaranteed, and to promote the role of religious and universal values to uphold truth, justice, ethical conduct, humanitarianism and human dignity.

I agree with this partly. I believe in secularism and no one religion should be the religion of the Federation. But considering the Malaysian society is a conservative society and it is mentioned in the Constitution, it is acceptable to some extend. In general, this is propaganda.

6. To establish Bahasa Malaysia as the national and official language, whilst guaranteeing the right of all citizens to use, learn and be educated in other languages; and to promote the development of Malaysian culture and arts based on the outstanding elements of the full cultural heritage that exists in this country.

I agree as long as the education system is not separated as it is right now. Native languages, whether it is Malay, Chinese (Mandarin, Hokkien etc) or Tamil, should be promoted in one system, not in three different systems. Here, I agree with Abdullah Badawi, one system for all though he did say that with reference to some other important issue.

7. To promote a Federal system that is just, responsible, democratic in balancing the interest of the states with the power of the Federal government.

If I understand this correctly, it is decentralization, inline with the green ideology. I agree by default. Currently, the Federal Government is too powerful.

8. To enhance human dignity, compassionate values and a caring culture, uphold fundamental human rights, with a firm commitment to principles of integrity and accountability in the fields of economics, politics and administration.

Propaganda and doesn’t really mean a thing though admirable. So, I’ll skip this.

9. To realise an economy that is just and dynamic, that emphasizes growth as well as equitable distribution, which is free from injustice, impropriety and waste, whilst overcoming poverty and preventing the concentration of wealth.

Sounds like socialism at work. I in particular disagree with preventing the concentration of wealth. I hope here, it means through economic policy, not by force.

10. To ensure, based on principles of justice, that the special position of the Malays and Bumiputera of Sabah and Sarawak is used solely to raise the socio-economic status of those who are poor and marginalised, and that just provision is made for the poor and marginalised among the non-Malay and the non-Bumiputra, towards achieving justice for national unity.

Key point. Socioeconomically based affirmative action. Agreed.

11. To provide social amenities such as education, healthcare, housing, and public transport of quality at reasonable cost pursuant to the social responsibility of government, particularly for the lower and middle income group.

Propaganda. The incumbent party has been doing that for years. Nothing to jump about.

12. To promote and protect the right to work, fair wages, safety at the workplace and a good quality of life for each and everyone.

I might have problem with this. To promote and protect the right to work doesn’t sound like free trade.

13. To strengthen the role and position of women in society, promote and protect their rights and interest and ensure that they enjoy and equal status and do not become victims of discrimination and exploitation.

Propaganda and redundant. Do they have to specifically mention women rights? I’m not being chauvinistic but point 1 has already got this covered.

14. To promote the rights of young people and the full development of their potential and ensuring their meaningful participation in all aspects of life.

Propaganda.

15. To improve the living standards of the Orang Asal whilst respecting their customs, implement suitable development programmes for them in consultation with them, and protect their rights over their Customary Land.

Sounds redundant because point 10 says that. However, being a green, I agree. Aborigines should be respected.

16. To protect the natural environment from damage, avoid pollution whilst enhancing the quality of the environment and ensure that development is sustainable.

A green party! w00t! No other party has this point. Therefore, it is only fair for me to flirt with Keadilan.

17. To realise a new international system that is just and democratic, implement an independent and ethical foreign policy, build a suitable environment for realising a informed society that can face the challenge of globalisation whilst rejecting the elements of the process of globalization that threaten the interest of the people, the nation and mankind, and to protect the economy, politics and security of the nation from being subjugated towards the interests of the superpowers of the world.

I am generally for globalization but I am also concerned with Malaysian sovereignty. Therefore, I’m divided on this issue. Anyway, it’s propaganda and unimportant.

Let’s assess Barisan Nasional manifesto tomorrow or the day after.

Categories
Sports

[310] Of ManUre and update on the Eredivisie

Last Tuesday, Manchester United was kicked out off the European Cup competition.

Today, Manchester City helped make the cake sweeter. City defeated Manchester United comfortably 4 – 1 and thus, further guaranteeing Arsenal chance to win the English Premier League crown. On the second spot, Chelsea is trying very hard to shove Alex Ferguson off their butt. I wish Chelsea the best of luck.

Lovely.

Onwards to a more important development, Feyenoord went pass PSV 1 – 0 while Ajax soared above Roda JC by 4 – 2. With 9 points lead and merely nine easy matches remaining, the Eredivisie crown is as good as Ajax’s.

And it looks like AFC Ajax Amsterdam will be seeing the light of Champions’ League again next season.

p/s – to Lada, if you are reading this, congratulations! I am delighted to see City won. Well, actually, I am delighted to see a dead devil.

Categories
Politics & government

[309] Of pilihanraya

The Malaysian general election is around the corner. It will be the first election where I could practice my right to vote. However, being what I call a professional procrastinator and having my mind focus on others things, I didn’t register with the Election Commission and therefore, I will miss my first chance to practice my right.

But if I did register, I would vote for, sadly, BN out of no choice.

Nevertheless, whether I did register or not, I don’t really think it matters though. Frankly, the incumbent party has every chance to stay in power.

But if I had the chance, I would love go against the incumbent party which is the Barisan Nasional because:

I don’t like how they are handling local politics.

I don’t like how Malaysia continues to be racially divided.

I don’t like how the education system in Malaysia is separated just to satisfy the Chinese and the Indian. Can you name any other country where each major ethnic group have their own university? I can’t. Google probably couldn’t too.

I don’t like the Bumiputra rights. Affirmative action should be based socioeconomically, not racially.

I don’t like how racial harmony depends on the education system and the Bumiputra rights. The current system in Malaysia encourages racism.

I don’t like the current government failure to separate the party from the state. If a civil servant openly supports the opposition party, the government has no right to punish the civil servant. The civil servant serves the country, not the party.

I don’t like the current government double standard in enforcing human rights. Everybody has the right to freedom of expression, not just the supporters of Barisan Nasional.

I don’t like how the government controls the media. I have no problem if the media is biased because being biased itself is a right.

I don’t like how the state is having too much power. Go libertarian!

I don’t like how the government handles environmental issues, especially about the Broga incinerator in Selangor.

But then, if I had registered with the Election Commission, I would still vote for Barisan Nasional because:

Of PAS vision of an Islamic Malaysia. I do believe God’s words are holy but I also believe that humans are too corrupted to enforce God’s words. Sooner or later, if PAS vision comes true, Malaysia will be another Iran. Freedom will be limited in the name of Islam and also in the name of PAS. In the end, there will be a despot holding the executive power. Freedom is somewhat limited in Malaysia right now. Voting for PAS would only make things worse.

Of Keadilan and DAP association with PAS. If, Keadilan in particular disassociate themselves from PAS, I would vote for them.

I have ten points my “why I would vote for the opposition” list but I have merely two in my “why I would vote for the incumbent” list. Yet, that two reasons far outweigh the ten.
It is a sad situation. I could exercise my right to vote but choosing between the lesser of the two evils is no choice at all. So much for Malaysian democracy.