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Books, essays and others Liberty Politics & government

[827] Of emotional populism

Earlier last week, I came upon a book and if I’m not mistaken, it was Eric Temple Bell’s Men of Mathematics. In it written a story concerning an exchange between Euler and Diderot. Euler was of course that great Swiss mathematician that is still torturing students of science all over the world hundreds of years after his death. Diderot on the other hand was a French philosopher. The conversation between the two itself was about the existence of god.

As the story goes, Diderot — an atheist — was invited to Russia by Catherine the Great. Unfortunately for the Christian monarch, while in St. Petersburg of Russia, Diderot debated with many people and encouraged others to embrace atheism. Catherine the Great was annoyed with Diderot’s effort and so she summoned Euler — a Calvinist — to deal with the atheist. Euler obliged and in the royal Russian court, he came up to Diderot and said “Sir, (a+b^n)/n = x; hence God exists, answer please!

It’s alleged that Diderot was algebraic illiterate and thus, Diderot was unable to come up with a counterpoint. Petrified and embarrassed, the Frenchman left Russia immediately and Catherine was amused. If Diderot were able to read algebraic notation, he would have spotted the problem with Euler’s argument and pushed Euler into a corner instead. On whether the story is fact or fiction, that’s another issue.

The author of the book — if I’ve gotten the author and the work right — intends to illustrate the importance of mathematics. His work argues that mathematical knowledge is too important to be left in the hand of the few. Mathematical knowledge needs to be disseminated among the public for if mathematics were only known to a certain class, that class would manipulate the ignorant others.

To prove his point, he points out that the priests of the past were the experts of the skies and stars, of seasons — experts of mathematics. Before the season changed, they predicted it and then the season changed. Before eclipses occurred, they predicted it. And there in the sky, eclipses. The class was the learned one. They understood what was going on through their mathematics and they exhibited their knowledge to those that comprehended nothing. More importantly, the priests’ words affected the lives of the commoners, the public — the words of the priests had weight. As the priests developed a reputation as reliable soothsayers, the commoners came to trust the priests. The ignorant commoners became dependent of the priestly class. When the trust became unbreakable, these priests started to say things of no truth to the commoners but brought the priests’ benefits. Lies became truth and the public was unable to discern the truth from lies because they lacked the knowledge to differentiate the two.

This is a disturbing hypothesis which has been proven by history countless of times. Alas, the author was expounding on the importance of mathematics while he could have stressed on the bigger picture — knowledge on general. Whenever the masses are ignorant, the educated few will be able to manipulate the masses. This manipulation might lead to populism.

Populism by itself is not necessarily bad or good; it’s neutral. What makes populism normative is the cause of populism. The good kind of populism is the one mobilized through sound reasoning. Whenever populism is mobilized through emotion, then there’s a high probability that it’s a bad kind of populism — someone is manipulating the masses. The masses could only be manipulated if there’s a lack of education and information and a monopoly of knowledge by some fraction. In vacuum of education or information, misinformation or disinformation has powerful adverse effect on uninformed masses. Misinformed masses will then profess loyalty to the manipulative few and ignore any voice of reason. For that, emotional populism is dangerous and like what I’ve written earlier, it can hard to counter with logical thinking.

In Malay, there’s an idiom: melentur buluh biarlah dari rebungnya; tackle the issue at its root cause. One of the most effective ways to counter emotional populism is to make the masses insusceptible to manipulation and propaganda (remember Chua Soi Lek and sugar? Without education, some would fall for it). In order to so, the masses must be imbued with the ability to think for themselves. Education is the key to counter emotional populism.

If emotional populism could be eliminated and give way rational populism, then one of weaknesses of democracy could be eliminated .

Unfortunately, the expansion of human knowledge is both an achievement and a tragedy. The sum of human knowledge is so vast that it is impossible to master all areas of knowledge. Some will always know more than the others.

Categories
Photography

[826] Of eastern horizon of Kuala Lumpur

This was taken some time last week from the 35th floor of the Tower 2, Petronas Twin Towers. The view looks slightly southeast. More to eastward rather than southward .

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

Like the northeastern view, there aren’t too many structures here. The best parts of the city could be seen between the south and northwestward directions.

I’m unhappy with the photo quality. It was edited with some software and not Adobe Photoshop – the software that I’m using currently is inferior to Adobe Photoshop. I still unable able to access my Photoshop since my desktop has yet to be repaired.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s – Ann Coulter is in trouble yet again:

NEW YORK Well, Ann Coulter may be “liberal” in one respect, anyway. The New York Post reported Sunday that author/columnist Coulter “cribbed liberally in her latest book” and also in several of her syndicated columns, according to a plagiarism expert.

John Barrie, creator of the iThenticate plagiarism-probing system, claimed he found at least three examples of what he called “textbook plagiarism” in the new Coulter book “Godless” after he ran its text through the program.

He also discovered verbatim copying in Coulter’s weekly column, which is syndicated to more than 100 newspapers by Universal.

The headline in classic Post fashion: COPYCATTY COULTER PILFERS PROSE: PRO

After her ragheads remark not too long ago, I’m sure many conservatives are running away from Coulter. If they haven’t yet, they better be.

Categories
Sports

[825] Of allez France

I’m so happy that the Portuguese are finally out of the tournament. I’m so glad Ronaldo was jeered throughout the match, as he was booed during the English-Portuguese match.

It’s just unfortunate that the France will be meeting the lame Italians. I wish it had been Germany instead of Italy. Why?

Italy makes the probability of the Final becoming a dull affair much higher.

I wouldn’t give a damn about the Final if it had been a French-German game. But with Italy there, I just have to care. I wish France all the best. Barthez or no Barthez.

Aux armes citoyens! Formez vos bataillons, Marchons, marchons! Qu’un sang impur, Abreuve nos sillons.

Categories
Economics

[824] Of sugar: price ceiling and oligopoly

Today, in the New Straits Times:

KUALA LUMPUR: The Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry plans to cut the number of sugar wholesalers to improve distribution of sugar.

“There are now 2,845 sugar wholesalers and we want to reduce the number to have better control of the distribution. We want to ensure that there is adequate sugar supply,” said Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Datuk Mohd Shafie Apdal yesterday.

I want to stress that the current Malaysian sugar shortage crisis is caused by price differentials of sugar within the region; Malaysia has lower sugar prices compared to its neighbors. This in turn causes distributive inefficiency within the country as sugar flows out of Malaysia. Hence, hoarding and smuggling are merely symptoms of that prices differential, not the root cause. Overconsumption is also not the cause — that’s just some dishonest political maneuvering.

Granted, by reducing the number of wholesalers, it will be easier for the Ministry to control sugar distribution. In a way, the government is trying to limit the effects of externality. But notice, the government is using more taxmoney to repair an already inefficient system. A reversion to a competitive market on the other hand will cost the government much less and close to nothing (discounting cost would be incurred by general unrest instigated by opportunists and protectionists).

However, by reducing the number of competitors in the market, the government unnecessarily increase the wholesalers’ market power — at least, power of the ones that will stay in the market. As a result, the market will move closer towards monopoly scenario and farther away from the ideals competitive market. A firm with sufficient market power will have the ability to increase price higher than competitive price. In fact, holding everything else constant, prices will increase while production will decrease from competitive equilibria respectively as firms try to maximize profits.

Since the government is able to control one more variable, there are two issues right now — first is price control which causes distributive inefficiency. Second is number of competitors (as explained, a reduction of competitors will pull the market toward monopoly scenario).

I’m not sure what the net effect is because it will depend on how well the government execute their monitoring and enforcement process to curb externalities. But there will be two extreme scenarios to consider.

One is when the quantity of sugar produced under monopoly without price ceiling (or rather, oligopoly) scenario will be less than quantity produced in a market with only price ceiling. This, in no uncertain terms will worsen the problem.

Two is when the quantity produced in the former state is greater than in the latter state. This will be no different than our status quo.

I’m too lazy to draw proper graphs to explain the whole thing graphically but I did draw them on a whiteboard and I did digitize them. This is one of them.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

You’d probably need a little bit of economics to comprehend the badly drawn graphs. But the bottom line is, the final result will depend on which part has a great effect on the system. If the effect of price ceiling has a greater impact compared to price setting power, then the status quo would probably remain, ceteris paribus. If price setting power has greater impact vis-a-vis price ceiling, then we would probably experience a more severe sugar shortage.

Of course, I’m assuming that these wholesalers are competing against each other. By that, I mean, they aren’t owned by an entity, i.e. the government. If they are owned by the government, then this whole entry would be irrelevant.

Categories
Environment Photography Science & technology Sports

[823] Of possible return of haze

The Bangkok Post reported yesterday that southern Thai states of Satun and Pattani were covered with haze. From the sound of it, the haze is still there :

Smog from forest fires in Indonesia has moved across the south now including Pattani on the Gulf of Thailand, Faisol Kasetkala, head of the provincial disaster prevention and mitigation office said Tuesday.

In another report by Bangkok Post suggests that the states have already been experiencing haze since July 2 or earlier:

Satun – Thailand’s southern Andaman Sea coastal province of Satun on Sunday remained covered by a blanket of smog, believed to be caused by forest fires in nearby Indonesia.

The provincial public health authorities warned the public to suspend regular outdoor exercise to avoid excessive breathing of the toxins in the atmosphere.

Another report dated July 2 by Bangkok Post states that northern Malaysian states of Kedah and Perlis are suffering minor bout of haze too. And as you can see, Indonesia is the alleged culprit yet again.

As for Kuala Lumpur around 9:15 AM today, from the 35th floor of the Petronas Twin Towers, Tower 2:

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

I can’t really say for certain if that is really haze since approximately two weeks ago, it was like this:

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

On a fairly good day, it should be something like this:

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

Most probably, in the first photo, that is just local smog. I don’t want to see anything worse and I definitely hope that that is not a mere wishful thinking. Despite that, in 2005, I’ve said the haze will return. I had no reason to believe the governments of ASEAN were willing to do anything effective, especially when Indonesian government had proved to be very non-committal to the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution of ASEAN. And so, here we are – possibly – again.

I hope, by the time haze hit Kuala Lumpur, I’d already be in Bangkok, Thailand.

Whatever it is, brace yourself!

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s – a bad way to start the day. Italy defeated Germany to progress to the final match of the FIFA World Cup. Well, it’s going to be a boring game, that’s for sure.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

pp/s – a victory for science:

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – NASA gave the shuttle Discovery a majestic Fourth of July send-off and said early signs showed the spacecraft was in good shape, despite once again being struck by the flying foam that has plagued the program.

The first-ever Independence Day manned launch came after two weather delays and over objections from those within NASA who argued for more fuel-tank repairs.

This is the first launch since the Columbia tragedy in 2003.