fiscal deficit – Page 6 – the _

[1358] Mengenai Bajet 2008

Saya amat membenci perkataan bajet dan lebih mengemari akan perkataan belanjawan. Itu bagaimanapun adalah satu perkara yang remeh dan mungkin hanya mengambarkan keadaan terkini dunia bahasa Melayu. Tiada apa yang perlu digusarkan.

Bacaan pertama belanjawan negara untuk tahun 2008 akan dibentangkan di Dewan Rakyat Jumaat ini. Saya ingin bertanya, apa pendapat anda akan belanjawan kali ini?

Saya pasti ia akan berputar kepada satu paksi: pilihanraya. Oleh itu, investment horizon kerajaan pimpinan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkemungkinan akan berjangka pendek bertujuan untuk mempergunakan satu kelemahan kebanyakan manusia: tidak ramai mempunyai kebolehan untuk melihat disebalik bukit, walau serendah mana bukit itu.

Defisit perbelanjaan mungkin akan bertambah melalui perbelanjaan kerajaan dalam usaha untuk mengatasi kelemahan komponen eksport bersih yang disebabkan oleh tahap kecerdasan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat yang menurun serta penambahan nilai ringgit Malaysia berbanding dolar Amerika. Cukai pula mungkin akan dipotong, sekaligus memperkuatkan lagi kemungkinan pertambahan defisit perbelanjaan. Saya rasa, Keynes akan tersenyum seketika, jika ini benar.

Tetapi, kebolehan mendengar mungkin satu kebolehan yang semua individu yang rasional perlu ada. Mari kita berlaku adil dan dengar apa yang Perdana Menteri mahu dilakukan untuk tahun 2008.

[1083] Of passing the buck too quickly

Earlier at BBC News, I read on how President Bush is planning to reduce the US budget deficit:

US President George W Bush has said his forthcoming budget plans will seek to curb domestic spending.

“Cutting the deficit during a time of war requires us to restrain spending in other areas,” Mr Bush said in his weekly radio address.

He said his plans for the next fiscal year would show that his aim of erasing the deficit by 2012 could be achieved without giving up tax cuts.

I beginning to notice the in trend right now. Reduce fossil fuel consumption, reduce carbon emission, reduce budget deficit, etc, etc, after he steps down as the President.

I realize that there are issues that demand attention that spans several generations. Nevertheless, I cannot help but wonder if that is the case or it is simply Bush passing the buck.

Regardless, I think President Bush is trying to cut the wrong corners:

Mr Bush said the budget for the year starting in October 2007 would underline the need to tighten spending on domestic programmes – including on education, energy and health.

The Washington Post newspaper said domestic spending would increase by 1% – less than inflation.

Meanwhile military spending in Iraq and Afghanistan would increase.

Certain areas, especially education, are too critical to see spending tightening. At time when globalization is at nearly full steam, I do not think anybody could afford to cut spending on education. Not Malaysia. Not Egypt. Not the Netherlands. Not the United States.

If I were Bush, I would slow down on the military spending instead. The first step in reducing military spending is to avoid too many military conflicts.

Some might call this a gun and butter model. Maybe it is, to some extent.