Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2675] The taxpayer’s deplorable options

I do consider the payment of income tax as a responsibility I must fulfill. As a member of society, I have some responsibilities toward its maintenance. The fact that I am a citizen makes that responsibility of paying taxes doubly important.

That responsibility arises from my enjoyment of multiple public goods that exist through public funding, never mind that its distribution may be less than ideal since only a minority of Malaysians pay income tax, and never mind that some public goods can be provided for through private means.

The provision of these public goods makes the sum of the income tax that I pay more palatable to me than being robbed on the streets or being swindled by a snake oil salesman. At least, I get something out of the money that I pay out even as there are cases of mismanagement or abuse of public resources by the government of the day.

While I do rationalize the payment of income tax and other types of taxes as such, that does not mean I enjoy paying those taxes. I dislike paying taxes and I especially dislike paying income tax as opposed to consumption tax. Sometimes, I do wonder how far we have progressed since the days of old when the fruits of one’s labor were expropriated by men — in the name of equality, as well as women — of power. Perhaps progress is the fact that tax rates today are lower than they were in times of feudalism. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps”¦ I tell myself perhaps.

What is certain is that I am sensitive to the income tax rates that I face.

The tax rates themselves are linked back to government expenditure. That makes me sensitive to plans which lead to government expenditure growth.

Apart from my distrust in the government in guaranteeing my civil rights, taxation is one of the other few reasons for my skepticism of the expansion of the role of government in our society. It can hit my pockets, which is not as deep as those in power.

The upcoming general election provides me with an opportunity to assess the options that I have on the table. This election may be the first ever where Malaysians can choose which economic policies they prefer to see implemented.

There have been manifestoes written and shared before of course but the 2013 general election makes it most realistic to imagine a change in federal government, without any political exchange in the style of the failed September 16, 2008 (and by the stars, let there not be any).

Yet, the choices so far have been disappointing.

On one hand there is Barisan Nasional where despite all the sleek public relations exercises suggestive of change, it is still business as usual in too many ways. For one, abuse of public funds goes on as usual.

Just the other day, the deputy prime minister declared that children of workers of Pos Malaysia — a private company after it was divested away by Khazanah Nasional Berhad to DRB Hicom which is ultimately controlled by Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary — would be given free netbooks by the Malaysian Communication and Multimedia Commission.

This is the use of public resources to benefit private parties and this is only one example of abuse; Barisan Nasional has no qualms utilizing public funds for its election campaign.

Those kinds of abuse adversely impact government expenditure in one way or another.

The government in its 2013 Budget plans to embark on fiscal consolidation, which is admirable. Yet, plans are plans and it looks all the more incredible as each day passes by. Each day of campaigning is another day the government of the day embarks on economic populism that is funded by public funds in an abusive way to blow the fiscal consolidation plan apart.

On the other hand we have Pakatan Rakyat.

Pakatan Rakyat does offer a vision to address the weaknesses of the incumbent government. Considerable portions of its manifesto try to address monopoly in the private sector that was actively created by the Barisan Nasional government which is something I can support. Pakatan Rakyat’s proposal to increase competition in the automotive industry is also something that I and many have argued for.

Yet, Pakatan Rakyat’s plans to reduce fuel prices, water tariff and others through greater subsidies will demand expansion of government expenditure. That is of significant worry to me. This is especially so when it is clear that the government will require a structural change in doing things in order to lower the fiscal deficit.

Pakatan Rakyat’s plans appear to move the position of public finance to the opposite direction.

Apart from the plan for increased expenditure, the political coalition is averse to expanding the tax base in the form of introducing the goods and services tax to replace the pre-existing sales and services tax. What is all the more remarkable is that Pakatan Rakyat plans to reduce personal income tax.

With increased spending and reduced taxation, the deficit may increase especially if other sources of revenue do not increase fast enough. This raises more questions on the revenue side. Does Pakatan Rakyat plan to increase company taxes and other indirect taxes? Will a Pakatan Rakyat government look to Petronas — which is trying to invest in itself more — for more contribution?

Second Finance Minister Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah claimed that Pakatan Rakyat’s plans would nearly triple the fiscal deficit when compared to 2012 level when compared to nominal GDP and increase government debt level by 10 percentage points to 62 per cent of GDP.

Now, it is election time and his claim should be taken with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, the direction of change in those figures as suggested by the minister appears reasonable. It does not take a person with wild imagination to think that the fiscal deficit and the debt level under Pakatan Rakyat’s plan will increase.

Pakatan Rakyat itself has not sufficiently clarified how it plans to do all that it promises without increasing the deficit. Its 2013 national manifesto is quite silent on the combined impacts of greater expenditure and its revenue plan on public finance. Pakatan Rakyat supporters have at one time or another claimed the Pakatan Rakyat government will curb corruption and leakage so much that it will allow a scenario of greater spending and unchanged taxation. While I am impressed with Pakatan Rakyat’s commitment to an open tender system for one, I am skeptical that those leakages and corruptions will be easy to tackle and if it is successful, it will release sufficient resources to plug any financial gap.

I ultimately do not believe heightened fiscal deficit and debt level will be sustainable to maintain a good standard of public finance. Economic forces are bigger than either Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat and I think when both parties are free from populist pressure and faced with the stark reality of public finance, they will tend to do what is responsible.

So if Pakatan Rakyat does get the opportunity to govern Malaysia and run its plans, sooner or later it will likely have to make room for realism with regards to its tax promises or its spending-related promises. Unfortunately, more often than not, raising taxes is far easier than cutting expenditure.

It is within this context that I consider Pakatan Rakyat’s words on taxes to be as incredible as the Barisan Nasional-led federal government plans for fiscal consolidation in 2013.

As a taxpayer, I am staring at my deplorable options.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on March 15 2013.

Categories
Politics & government Pop culture Society

[2666] From race and religion to Psy

For better or worse, quantity is important in a democratic contest. It is about gaining the majority. It is about popularity.

With that as the context, we have to remember we live in a young society. The Department of Statistics estimates that the median Malaysia age in 2010 was slightly above 26 years. In simpler terms, the age of one half of the population today is younger than the median just three years ago. The profile of the Malaysian electorate pretty much reflects the demographics of our society.

Thanks to their sheer size, those in their 20s and 30s are clearly the biggest and thus the most important group. If they had one mind, they collectively could decisively determine the path which the country would take.

But what makes these young people stand out further politically is that most of them will be voting in a national election for the first time in their lives. Their minds more flexible than those belonging to the older generation who more often than not are hung up on legacy issues. Ibrahim Ali, for instance, still has the May 13 incident as his talking point.

So, young adults are the cool kids on the block and the two nationally-relevant political factions are competing to be the friend of these cool kids. The Barisan Nasional-led federal government has launched several policies for that purpose and chief among them are affordable housing and other cash transfers. The federal opposition Pakatan Rakyat promises the same young adults free tertiary education, among others. Both sides are pulling out all stops to be the one special friend.

While I find many of those policies too populist, at least those policies are serious in the sense that they affect a person’s welfare. The existence of a real policy competition between two credible sides is heartening since previously, it was really all about the old, stale, suffocating issues of race and religion. That is not to say that race and religion are no longer factors but at the very least, we have something substantive to base our election on.

But I do have a feeling that the courting is starting to go a bit too far and starting to appear regressive. It is starting to go into the realm of the trivial that debases the very serious nature of our elections. In an effort to become ever more popular, political parties are starting to make entertainment the focal point of their political events, instead of what the parties stand for.

This happened in Penang recently. Barisan Nasional organized its Chinese New Year celebration with Psy, the Korean sensation — and not the Malaysian prime minister — as the star of the event. The hosts of That Effing Show — a sarcastic online talk show focusing on Malaysian affairs — were right on the money when they joked that in the United States, a singer would introduce the president to the crowd but in Malaysia, the prime minister introduced a singer. Such is the office of the prime minister which is obviously too engrossed in crass populism.

While I despise the debasement of the highest political office of the land, I think I understand the reasoning behind it. Young adults are seen wedded together with pop culture. They are the pop culture.

Maybe, just maybe, the politicians think, if they could harness the power of pop culture, if they could show that they have their finger on pop culture, then they could connect with these young adults. We could win their votes, so the politicians thought. At the end, these politicians hoped what happened in Penang stayed in Penang (Tourism Minister Ng Yen Yen had a different idea in Malacca, some weeks after).

But this line of thinking — of entertainment, young adults and politics — is potentially insulting to young adults. Is entertainment the thing that matters the most in attracting them to participate in a political process? Are young adults fluffy-headed, uncritical, naïve voters to be wooed with inconsequential gimmicks? Is the future worth a trivial song in an age where one-hit wonders happen almost every week, if not every day? I pray to the god in the mirror for the answer to be no.

I know it did not work in Penang but I do not know if it will never work. I hope that it will never work so that our elections have less possibility of becoming an exercise of triviality. The truth is Barisan Nasional is not the only one guilty of putting entertainment at the center stage or a big part of a political event or rally.

The danger is that if it works and pulls in the votes. When that happens, there goes the future as votes of substantial value are traded for a trivial piece of song popular with the cool kids.

If it does happen, that will be no progress from the days of race and religion. It is just as bad as the days of old.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on February 28 2013.

Categories
Economics Poetry Politics & government

[2628] 5.2% in the third quarter, 5.6% in the second and 5.1% in the first

It’s above consensus,
so says the missus,
so shall we pop the champagne,
and start with the campaign?

Categories
Economics

[2602] 2013 Malaysian federal governmet budget is smaller!

The tabling of the federal government budget is still ongoing but the Economic Report for 2013 by the Ministry of Finance is already out. Here is where the projected GDP figures and government finance are available for the first time.

I think the biggest point about this year’s budget is government spending. In most years, the fiscal deficit ratio (fiscal deficit to nominal GDP) dropped because the nominal GDP grew and not because actual deficit was down. This year, government spending is projected to come down.

Operationing expenditure is projected to fall by 0.3% and development expenditure is projected to fall by 4.2%. Overall expenditure is expected to decline by 1.1%.

The drop in operating expenditure is projected to come mostly from a drop in emolument (the civil service, really) and subsidies. For most people, this suggests that there will be a large subsidy cut in 2013. Pensions and gratuities are also projected to come down. This is a signal that something right is happening in the overly fat civil service. But then again, money to the civil service grew massively in 2012 that the cut in 2013 is pale.

Having a declining total government spending is rare. Between 1975 and 2012, there were only four times when total government spending decreased: 1983, 1985, 1987 and 2010.

Being a libertarian, I might be happy with this particular budget. But as I have been warned, I should wait until it happens.

This also means one thing. With the projected drop in government spending, politically, election must be held early in 2013 or even in 2012. It will be hard to achieve the reduction if election is held very late up to the constitutional limit. The later the election, the more electioneering will there be.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
errata — the peril of rushing. I made a number of mistakes in the earlier version of this entry, ranging from grammar to the numbers themselves. First, I had asserted that if the government stuck with the budget, it would have been the first time in ages that total government spending would decrese. While such year is rare, the last time that happened was in 2010. Second, I incorrectly calculated the overall expenditure growth rate.  I apologize for that and I have corrected those mistakes. 

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[2559] Election now leads to less populism

We live in a time of widespread economic crisis.

Europe is in recession. For some European countries like Greece, it is effectively the Great Depression all over again. Economic recovery in the US is slow, with the labor market in May registering horrible statistics to suggest that the US recovery may be flagging.

On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Meanwhile, Asian production and trade are growing very slowly as well, if not contracting altogether like in Taiwan and South Korea.

The latest export statistics reveal that Malaysian April exports contracted for the second consecutive months as Europe and others demanded less goods and services. Europe will likely continue to demand less in the near future as its governments, firms and households rebalance their finance towards more saving and less spending on average. The rebalancing is needed and overdue. As always, there is cost to the exercise. The cost will be significant even to those halfway around the world.

These external developments are important to Malaysia because the country has one of the highest trade exposure in the world. The openness and generally liberal trade attitude has allowed Malaysia to enjoy significant secular economic progress so far. But the same factor also makes Malaysia sensitive to the global business cycle.

The awful trade data has not been translated fully into the domestic economy. The domestic labor market, for instance, is holding up pretty well and close to full employment. The resilience of the domestic economy is encouraging but if trade growth continues to be dismal, sooner or later things will change for the worse.

So, there is crisis abroad and Malaysia may very well feel the heat soon enough.

The country needs to be ready for the possible headwind. Politically, it is hard to see how Malaysia is ready given that the general election is just over the horizon, somewhere.

That means policymakers and politicians are politicking.

While this behavior is only to be expected, there is a fear that the government’s collective eyes are off the economic ball. Both sides of the divide — more importantly, the government of the day — are making populist promises and policies to outdo each other and win votes. That may hurt the country’s ability to address possible economic troubles when the time arrives.

While the election is a must to preserve and to enhance our democracy, there is a cost to it. That cost is populism. We have to bear the cost but we do not need to exacerbate it.

How does populism exacerbate cost?

The cost will be higher the longer the politicking opportunity persists. That is so because the longer the politicking period, the higher the likelihood of populist policy will emerge.

That in turn may cause us as a society to meet potential economic trouble with a rifle loaded insufficiently. The point is especially relevant because the federal Budget is expected to be tabled in September. A ”people’s budget” will not be ideal if Malaysia wants to weather the gloomy days successfully.

So, this is a case to hold the general election as soon as possible. A resolution is needed as soon as possible. It is only by having an election as soon as possible that there can be less opportunity for politicking to lessen the probability of economic populism winning the day and ruining the future.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malaysian Insider on June 11 2012.