Categories
Economics

[2561] What inflation?

Kapil Sethi has a really odd piece yesterday in The Malaysian Insider yesterday. It started pretty alright by discussing crime but the strangeness began when he tried touch the realm of economics:

At a deeper level though, this desperation points to a changing politico-economic environment that is forcing such radical shifts in behaviour. When there is a perception that well-connected people are getting obscenely rich and are spending their wealth conspicuously and extravagantly while everybody else is feeling the pressure of stagnating incomes, greater indebtedness and inflation, feelings of anger and desperation seem only natural [Crime and the economic divide. Kapil Sethi. The Malaysian Insider. June 19 2012]

In short, he tried to link crime rate with fiscal profligacy.

I do not intend to discuss the strangeness of his article because it messes up my mind. Suffice to say, I disagree with what he wrote about the link. All I want to highlight further is this paragraph of his:

Increasing inflation, higher interest rates and consequent high default on outstanding loans given stagnating incomes could be an outcome of profligate government spending rife with ”leakages” already seen in other economies, notably Greece.

Unfortunately for him, here is how Greek inflation looks like over the past 10 years or so.

I do not see anything special about the inflation rate, save those in 2008 and 2009 which were due to something else entirely (commodity prices boom and the subsequent recession and so-called recovery).

Increasing inflation? If you flip the chart upside down, then yes, maybe for the past two years.

Categories
Economics

[2516] Inflation is the change in price level, not the price level

I think economists have some kind of pseudo-responsibility in helping the public understand economic issues. They need to translate jargon into simple language. This can be hard because not many have the gift of clarity, in and out of the field of economics. I do not claim to have that gift, but I can say I try.

I wrote pseudo-responsibility because nobody can compel any economist to be a teacher but they are somewhat encumbered only because of their relatively superior economic knowledge compared to laypersons. I also emphasize pseudo-responsibility because I am a libertarian. Positive rights and I do not mix well. What I am trying to relay is that it is not obligatory but it is recommended.

I know some may contest an economist’s supposedly superior knowledge but in most cases, one can expect an economist to know more and kept abreast about developments in the domestic and the global economy better than a non-economist. This is especially so at the very conceptual level of basic things, like inflation. In things like inflation, I think an economist earns the relevant intellectual arrogance although preferably, that does not translate into being actually arrogant.

I am writing this because first of all, I am a practicing economist and second of all, I have noted that most laypersons understand the concept of inflation very differently from what an economist understands. Different is just a polite way of stating the layperson view is wrong.

I get this through casual conversations with either friends, some professionals within the investment banking circle or strangers whom are not an economist or a serious student of economics. I would usually lose interest in such casual conversations partly because it is my line of work and I really do not want to talk about work when I am off work. So when laypersons start to opine about inflation, I would just nod my head even while I notice something is wrong about the opinion.

Yet I could not say what exactly is wrong because when laypersons discuss about inflation, they immediately discuss about the consequences of inflation and not about the concept itself. This jump to consequences is reasonable, if one understands the concept but it becomes problematic when the concept is misunderstood and discussion on its implications goes on as if everything is fine.

The jump makes it hard to assess what exactly is wrong with the layperson view on inflation. When the implications are all wrong, it can be hard to trace its source especially when communication is embarked verbally and casually. In such casual conversations before I realized what I realized just weeks ago, I would typically dismiss the layperson view as divorced from reality or that they lack data to back their opinion up or they are just stubborn. I did not actually realize it was their concept that was wrong.

I realize the conceptual flaw in the layperson view on inflation only some weeks ago when I wrote an article for The Malaysian Insider, where I made a passing remark that inflation from the implementation of GST will only be transient. In the comment section, a person disagreed and said while in theory inflation can go up and down, in reality it has always gone up. The person insisted that inflation of the past is stuck with us.

If this was yet another casual verbal conversation, I would just give it a nod and dismiss it. But having it written clears up the root cause of the misunderstanding. What I see in those written words immediately answer all those quirky layperson statements on inflation that I have heard over the years.

The person essentially took inflation as price level. This rationalizes his insistence that past inflation is stuck with us. And this also rationalizes his belief that in theory, inflation goes up and down but in reality, it goes only up. That is true for (general) price level, but not for inflation.

An economist understands inflation as change in price level, not price level itself. In fact, inflation is defined as change in price level, not price level itself.

Note carefully the difference between the economist and layperson views on inflation.

Once one understands that inflation describes price level change, then one can begin to understand why the layperson view of inflation is wrong. A change makes inflation and a level does not.

This, of course, does not include the opinion (fact!) that inflation in the long run does not matter. Laypersons unfamiliar with economics on the other hand will one way or another say, “10 years ago, a sweet caused 1 cent. These days, you can hardly buy anything with a dollar.” When an economist hears that, the economist will deep inside his heart cry in pain. Inflation, in economic jargon, is only an illusion. Laypersons fall for that illusion.

Categories
Economics

[2513] Minimum wage and the money illusion

In the short run when (nominal) prices are not so flexible, there will be a trade-off between (nominal) minimum wages and unemployment rate. The mechanics is simple. If businesses cannot change the price they charge their customers, they will optimize their cost. Since a person’s real wage theoretically equals the person’s marginal product of labor (or in English, productivity), businesses will try to maintain workers whom are reasonably productive with respect to the wage paid. In reality, this could mean either tighter selection of workers or even firing of unproductive workers. More often than not, it would likely only lead to tighter worker selection criteria. Regardless, with labor population growth, it would lead to lower hiring compared to pre-minimum wage and then immediate creating  greater unemployment among the labor force, with all else being constant.

In the long run when prices finally adapt, the relationship between minimum wage and unemployment can be rendered impotent. Prices adapting means erosion of minimum wages by inflation. The more prices adapt, the less productivity is required given the equivalent fixed minimum wage level. This thus opens up more space for less productive workers to have a shot at employment in sector which the minimum wage law covers and in turn, applies a downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Unless, of course, if the minimum wage level is updated in line with some measure of inflation. In that case, the negative relationship within minimum wage and unemployment rate will be sustained.

There is one important point that I wish to highlight if it is not so apparent already. While the negative relationship between minimum wage and unemployment will weaken over time in the face of inflation and non-update of the law, the effect of unemployment is real due to sticky prices in the short run.

With a real minimum wage, the effect is permanent.

Categories
Economics Poetry Politics & government

[2512] Of high-income economy

High-income economy,
sans the illusion of money,
some for you and me,
some more for the party’s crony.

Categories
Economics

[2485] Thinks the official inflation rate is wrong? Calculate it yourself

There are Malaysians who find it hard to accept the official inflation rate. They claim that it grossly underestimates the actual inflation on the streets.

Some of them are truly stubborn in the sense that no proof will convince them. Some derive their disagreement out of merely ignorance. Others raise nuanced argument against the official inflation rate as calculated from the consumer price index published by the Department of Statistics.

I typically dismiss the first two groups because I have learned to pick my fight over the years. For the third one, there is some concession to be made.

The truth is, the CPI itself measures the price levels of a basket of goods. The weight of each good depends on what the Department of Statistics thinks a typical Malaysian consumes. While there are ways to estimate the consumption of a typical Malaysian, it is quite easy to imagine and in fact it is the case that the hypothetical typical Malaysian differs from most of us. The difference depends on your preference for one. Your level of income for two.

Your preference is especially important. Do you smoke? Do you prefer bread to rice? Do you drink liquor? Do use your cell phone heavily? Do you drive? What kind of vehicle? Do you drive like a maniac or do you drive, like a friend of mine, like a grandmother? Are you an electronics freak purchasing every single new fancy gadget released out there? There are thousands of questions that if answered, they will reveal your consumption pattern.

The CPI has several components each representing a particular class of goods. These components are food, transportation, housing and apparels among others. There are 12 classes altogether. If you visit the website of the Department of Statistics, you can find out what is the exact weight for a particular component for the CPI.[1]

So, really, you, provided that you accept the reading for a particular component, can construct your own CPI that will be different from the official CPI.

Change the weight according to what you think reflects your consumption. If you do not smoke or do not drink, put zero as the weight for alcohol and tobacco class. If you do eat out often at restaurants, increase the weight for that class. If you do not pay for any education service, put it zero. If you are taking one, then assign them accordingly. If you spend a huge fraction of your disposable income on food like a lot of low-income people, then give it greater weight. Etc. Then multiply the relevant weight to the relevant component index. Voila! Your own personalized CPI.

From then on, you can calculate your own inflation rate. Just do not do it the way Anwar Ibrahim did it or else you will piss off Mr. Hisham. You do not want to do that.

The point is, behind the fancy economics is just elementary mathematics. There is no magic behind it. You really do not need to be an economist to construct your own CPI and calculate your personalized inflation rate. Just understand the basics, and off you go.

If you do not know your weights, then run an experiment. Record your spending and consumption for a couple of months or more and then you can find the weights.

This way you will see how inflation affects you personally and more accurately. In fact, it will likely come closer to your expectation than what the official inflation rate tells you.

What it will not do however is to justify one’s unreasonable opinion that the inflation rate should be, for instance, 10% instead of 3%. Some think the statistics have been fudged to make the government looks good. To them I say you are free to have any opinion on any matter. But not all opinions are valid.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — See for instance, the CPI for November 2011 at the Department of Statistics.