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Politics & government Society

[1754] Of enough with the swearing already

I thought we Malaysians had gone a long way in our methodology in seeking truth and justice. Apparently, I have been overly optimistic.

The Germanic people of the past subscribed to the idea of judicial duel. In absence of witnesses or a confession, they advocated the holding of a duel between the accused and the accuser to determine the status of a case. The winner will be acknowledged as being on the side of the truth. The loser meanwhile will be wrong.

After awhile and too many deaths later, enough individuals finally come to realize that this kind of trial is really about proficiency in weapon handling or strength rather than truth.

Not only law like this is barbaric, outcome of the duel has no bearing whatsoever on the truth.

In a more general sense and more widespread in other parts of the world in the past, trials by ordeal were favored. The status of the accused is determined by having him to undergo unsavory tests. Just like the judicial duel method, the result of any trial by ordeal has little correlation with the guilt or the innocence of the accused.

For the judicial duel, the accuser bears some cost in making any accusation without any proof since he could lose his life if he is not careful. This is a particularly important aspect of the method because the presence of cost acts to potentially discourage any accusation from being made so recklessly.

As for trial by ordeal, the accused cannot simply proclaim his innocence with impunity. There is no cost to the accuser however but at least, there is some still cost to one side.

Regardless, in both cases, words are not cheap and cannot be taken lightly.

In Malaysia at the moment, not only a number of individuals are mocking our judiciary system by debasing as well as preempting it, it has become a trend lately to swear on the Koran to prove one’s case. Somebody may argue that if the person lies, retribution may come in the afterlife but the reality is that, there is no cost in doing so in this life.

Hence, such oaths are cheap.

If such confessions are applied as the benchmark of truth, then desperate people could simply assert their innocence successfully even when all evidence clearly point to them. The acceptance of swearing on the Koran as the benchmark of truth is really about granting somebody a get-out-of-jail-for-free card.

Needless to say, it is impossible for justice to thrive in such situation; that card makes any judiciary system redundant.

On top of that, when such swearing and confession of innocence could be made so cheaply, is there a reason to trust the confession?

No, there is none.

If there were a reason, then we would probably be just as civilized as the barbaric society of the past in terms of dispensing justice. Just as the outcomes of judicial duel and trial by ordeal have little to do with guilt or innocence of a person, so too the oaths on the Koran.

In this imperfect world, it is only prudent to assume that every individual is interested in advancing his own interest. Whether we like it or not, it is safer to assume that the willingness to swear has more to do with promotion of self interest than anything else. Any more well meaning assumption only qualifies oneself as being naive.

Besides, does a person need to tell the truth only when he swears on over the Koran?

What an immoral world would we live in if the answer to the question is yes. Truly, the highest of all morals call upon all of us, Muslims or otherwise, to endeavor to be truthful even without the presence of the Koran or any scripture which any of us consider as holy.

It is possible that those whom swear on the Koran do not think much of the scripture but only do so to manipulate the masses. By merely taking an oath, the so-called confessors might believe that they could get away with anything.

If indeed this is what happening, it is no less than an insult to the Koran. This kind of insult is far worse than any cartoon or work of literature could ever throw to any Muslim.

The only way to know whether an insult has been committed is for Muslims to demand investigation into any oath made by citing the Koran. Any kind of serious investigation will impose a cost to the act of swearing on the Koran and this has the potential of discouraging brazen lies from being labeled as truth so publicly.

Moral and religion aside, apart from the obvious fact that these swearing and confessions are cheap, there are several reasons why swearing on the Koran or any scripture for that matter should be outright rejected in no uncertain terms.

One of them is the fact that such action, if it becomes accepted at the benchmark of truth, undermines our judiciary. What is the point of maintaining all the courts if the innocence and guilt of a person could be determined by a mere oath?

Surely millions of Ringgit could be invested elsewhere if we already had found a barometer of truth that is far more reputable than our jaded judiciary system.

Secondly, in a number of cases where the acts of swearing on the Koran have taken place, these cases do not exclusively belong to that of the Muslim community. Many of these cases are of national interests which cut well beyond boundary drawn by religions. The natural question arising from this fact is that why should any non-Muslim accept the Koran as the benchmark of truth?

Even if these cases were exclusive matters of the Muslim community in a way that both the accuser and the accused are Muslims, justice does not exclusively concern that of the accuser and the accused. A phrase commonly attributed to Edmund Burke puts it succinctly: all that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.

In the name of truth and justice, the issues should be brought to the courts. Let a neutral ground be the medium. Bring on the evidence, keep the Koran at home and let the jury deliberate earnestly.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

Categories
Economics Sports

[1751] Of they counted it wrongly

Notwithstanding Tibet, the conflict in Xinjiang, suppression of Falun Dafa, the alleged connection to the alleged genocide in Darfur, broken promises of a free press, the pollution and eviction of citizens from Beijing, or the less than flattering revelation of how the “live” opening of the Olympics was not quite as “live” as it should have been — not to mention the use of a substitute child lip-syncing the song at the opening ceremony because the actual singer was not pretty enough — another phenomenon which this Olympics will forever be associated with is the competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The methods used to measure the competition at the moment are flawed however.

The Olympics, in a way, can be seen as a proxy battle between the world powers. Prior to the Second World War, the United States was up competing against Germany. The battle was conclusively settled outside of the stadium in 1945 in Berlin.

During the Cold War, it was the US against the Soviet Union. As the Soviet Union crumbled under its own weight, so did the competition between the US and the USSR. Today, it is the PRC versus the US.

The competition between the US and the PRC is not just in the courts of sport. It can also be seen in how the points are tallied and, subsequently, how ranks are determined.

Go to the official website of the Beijing Olympics, head over to the medal count table and immediately a visitor can observe how the count is carried out. At the site, a gold medal is the ultimate yardstick. Regardless of quantity of bronze and silver medals, if a country has more gold medals than the other, the country gets to be on the top.

Head over to any Olympic standings published by the US press and there is a good chance that a person will find that countries are ranked by total medal count, regardless of the value of gold, bronze and silver. That is how the New York Times, FoxNews and MSNBC do it, anyway.

I am unsure how far the different ways of assigning ranks relate to competition between the US and the PRC but it is tempting to attribute the difference to the rivalry between the two countries. Another possibility is that this could be an innocent systematic difference.

A quick check of the official standings of previous editions of the Olympics reveals that it is gold medals that count, not total medals. In the 2000 Sydney Olympics, for instance, Ethiopia ranked 20th with four gold and eight total medals while Ukraine held the 21st place with three gold and 23 medals in total. The US ranked first, having the most gold and total medals.

The same arrangement is true for the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. Italy ranked 6th with 13 gold and 35 total medals while Australia ranked 7th with nine gold but 41 total medals. Just as with the 2000 edition, the US reigned supreme by garnering the most gold as well as total medals.

I am unsure how the US media did their rankings for the 1996 and the 2000 Games. Therefore, I cannot comment on the consistency of the US media but it is safe to say that the official convention at the Beijing Olympics is in line with past practice.

One way to see if bias has played a role in the determination of ranks would be to see if changes of circumstances of standings under a particular convention would lead to changes of convention.

Regardless, each convention suffers from a serious flaw respectively. Are 50 bronze medals worth less than a single gold medal? Is a gold medal worth as much as a bronze or a silver medal?

Surely the answer is no to both questions.

Yet, under the gold convention as officially adopted at the 2008 Olympic Games, the answer is yes to the first question and no to the second question. Under the total medal convention as adopted by the US media, the answer is reversed.

Truly, all participants actually care about winning a medal and what kind of medal. Gold is obviously the most favoured medal. Silver is not bad too if gold is out of reach. And better bronze than nothing, do you not think so?

The fact that participants compete for these medals and obviously hold transitive preferences for each type of medal insists that both types of ranking adopted by the Beijing Olympics and the US media are flawed. If the rankings are not flawed, then the principle of microeconomics would have to see a complete overhaul!

It would be the end of economics as we know it.

Seriously!

For those who truly wish to right the wrongs of the world, we can begin by restructuring the way countries are ranked in the Olympics. Weight to medal should be assigned to reflect the transitive nature of preference for different types of medals.

We could assign three points for gold, two for silver and one for bronze. The sum of points would then determine the final standings.

I think this is a worthy cause to fight for. I shall take up my dissatisfaction against the IOC by protesting in front of their headquarters soon. So, who is with me?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

Categories
Education Society

[1745] Of quid pro quo for an egalitarian society

Ethnic integration does not top my list as an issue we as a society face. I used to be bothered a lot by it but I have long learned to accept the wisdom that birds of the same feather tend to flock together.

More importantly, I have accepted that organic integration is a painfully slow process. This effectively means the idea of Bangsa Malaysia for me remains a dream in the near future. Nevertheless, if indeed ethnic integration is a goal, then I think the special rights enjoyed by the Malays as well as the vernacular schools would have to go.

The idea of Bangsa Malaysia has never been satisfactorily and properly defined. What exists are competing definitions. For me personally, I take Bangsa Malaysia — or the Malaysian nation and not the Malaysian race — as simply the concept of rights egalitarianism embedded in the idea of Malaysian citizenship. That means the state does not discriminate its own citizens on anything except, mostly, merits.

I do not have to demonstrate about how large a role race and religion play in our society and I think a lot of us realize how central race and religion are to our society, for better or for worse. While I have resigned to the fact that it takes years to restructure our society organically, I still despise how race and religion are exceptionally central to our society and how both factors have been manipulated to the effect that they erode liberty.

As a result, a tiny insignificant part of me wants to throw liberty out of the equation and use coercion to encourage integration, to do away with factors which encourage ethnic division in this country. Part of me wants to hasten the integration process, preferring an inorganic method over organic.

But I am a libertarian and I am proud of it. I plan to neither resort nor consent to forced integration or assimilation. For others without libertarian tendencies and who are fiercely working for a more integrated society, coercion through the elimination of public funded vernacular schools and streamlining the education system with just one national school stream may indeed be a tool of great use.

Embracing the concept of rights egalitarian would be the first step in encouraging ethnic integration. Any policy which discriminates people based on creed and skin color only fuels anger of the discriminated against the favored. As long as the hatred is there, ethnic integration will be a pie in the sky.

Equality has the greatest potential in dousing the fire of communal hatred. Within the Malaysian context, this calls for the dismantling of various policies which discriminate our own citizens. It goes as far as requiring the Constitution to be amended to conform to the spirit of rights egalitarianism, where all are truly equal before the law which is ever conscious of individual liberty.

The dismantling of discriminatory policies, however, will not be popular with the majority power, which is Malay. In as much as the Malay community is not monolithic in its political outlook, considerable members of the Malay community do hold dearly to policies which grant them special privileges. The continuous support which UMNO receives from a majority of Malays proves that.

Due to that, removal of policies derived from the New Economic Policy will be highly unpopular. As a direct result, the political support for a rights egalitarian society may not be there. If equality of rights is a goal to be achieved, it is the Malays that the advocates of egalitarianism need to convince, especially in the illiberal democracy that we live in.

The first step in convincing the majority is an exposition of the weaknesses of the current race-based affirmative action policies and juxtaposing it with a better merit-based alternative. The majority has to be persuaded that if the majority of Malays are really poorer than the average Malaysian, a merit-based affirmative action would aid them anyway. Therefore, there is no reason for those who truly require aid to worry about the switch from a race-conscious to race-blind and merit-based policy.

I have come to believe that this is the strongest point that exists against the status quo. It is so because it appeals to the concepts of justice and fairness apart from being an economically superior policy compared to race-conscious affirmative action.

Theoretically, it is impeccable and I have seen it work in practice, especially during the election. This very line has been used from time to time. With patience and good orators at hand, many Malays who are genuinely concerned with the welfare of impoverished Malays are convinced by this point.

That notwithstanding, I personally do not subscribe to any kind of state-based affirmative action. A merit-based policy nevertheless is a potent tool to bring down the current policy; my support for a merit-based over race-based policy only exists due to the virtue of thinking on the margin.

But why should only the Malays sacrifice their position?

I am convinced that rights egalitarianism is one of few ideas that is capable of bringing this country forward. It is one of those abstract developments that this country needs more than physical developments. Our current societal structure is not conducive to attracting talents and egalitarianism — as well as liberty — is one of our best bets to catalyze our economy forward, which at this point, is stagnating.

So, I tend to think that this is not a zero-sum game. Rights egalitarianism has the prospect of increasing the economic pie but while the point is taken but a lot of Malays seem unconvinced about why they should give up their privileges.

It is possible that this is a matter of time horizon. While it is beneficial in the long run to have an egalitarian society for everybody, in the short run, the Malays really do not have the incentive to give up their privileges. This is even more so when there is a heavy discount on future gains.

This sounds like a bias called loss aversion. To explain the phenomenon slightly deeper, loss aversion describes a situation when a person considers a loss as unacceptable even when there is an eventual net gain.

This bias later transforms the original question into “Why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain?”

Failure to answer this question may cause the Malays to question the sincerity of others in building a less ethnic-conscious society. I think I can safely say that the conservative Malays see vernacular schools as the special privileges of others as how others see affirmative action enjoyed by the Malays as special privileges.

I have been thinking and I do not pretend I have given it very deep thought but my initial feeling is that the abolition of vernacular schools funded by public money could be the answer to that question.

This absolutely makes sense if we return to the original intention of ethnic integration. This is also important to demonstrate to the conservative Malays that there is sincerity in building unity among various communities. There are Malays whom distrust calls for equality because of the question. A sacrifice by the other sides do a lot in proving the sincerity in building an egalitarian society and thus renders the question irrelevant.

One cannot expect to have an integrated society when children are not given the opportunity to mingle with their peers of different backgrounds. Vernacular schools, be they Chinese, Indian or even schools like the Malay College, work like silos, isolating children in the same community from one another. It is the silo nature of vernacular schools that is detrimental to the idea of ethnic integration.

Surely separation from the very beginning does little in bridging the gap that already exists between cultures. If bridging the gap is truly the goal, then the silos have to be removed and replaced with the grand mixer that is the national school. Concerns about languages and religions, which are the typical criticism directed at the idea of national schools, could be addressed by making language classes available and making the national school neutral of religious influence.

All in all, in the abolition of both Malay privileges and vernacular schools, there would be a quid pro quo arrangement, solving the question of “why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain?” It gives the appearance that both are sacrificing something in the name of unity.

On a final note, I want to reiterate that I do not consider ethnic integration a burning question. With regards to school systems, I prefer the concept of charter schools to typical public-funded ones, which schools are given the liberty to do whatever they like as long as they deliver results. With a charter school system in place, it would be likely that the abolition of vernacular schools would lead to merely a change in label, which would render abolition meaningless.

Abolition furthermore seems to be an act to force individuals into a system with the system trying to mold an individual with a template. That disturbs me.

Thus, my agnosticism to abolition. And since I am agnostic to the idea of ethnic integration anyway, preferring to take the time to organically integrate our society instead, I really could not care less for abolition.

For those dreaming of a rights egalitarian society, however, the proposed quid pro quo arrangement is something for all egalitarians to consider. If the arrangement is rejected, the egalitarians would still have to answer the question why should the Malays sacrifice their position while the rest have everything to gain.

Unless that question is satisfactorily answered, I do not think we can see the rise of a rights egalitarian society anytime soon.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

I felt the original version does not have a smooth logical transition. This is most likely due to me rushing the article through. Regardless, I have added a sentence or two in this version. In the TMI version, there are  no sentences on sincerity.

Categories
Politics & government

[1743] Of political competition for better institutions

Unity is a popular concept nowadays. It began with the Malay unity talks and in response to that, M. Kulasegaran of the DAP called for Malaysian unity talks to bring the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat together. How close is still unclear.

Meanwhile, the harsh bipartisanship that exists at the moment has prompted fears that this country is falling apart and real issues are not being addressed. All that, however, is nonsense. The political competition we are seeing today is one of the few good things that have happened to this country in a long time.

The uncertain political climate brought about by the ongoing political competition has been cited every now and then as being detrimental to economic growth. I agree with this premise to some extent but that does not necessarily make me wish to turn down the volume. On the contrary, I am excited to witness this chapter of Malaysian history.

Opinion on whether this uncertainty is unfavorable really depends on the time horizon one wishes to adopt as a frame of reference. In the short term, the political uncertainty caused by various factors — from allegations of sodomy and the Altantuya trial to political defection — does indeed shoo away business. The simplest indicator would be the Composite Index. Each time another factor amplifies our political scenario, the Composite Index takes a nosedive.

Looking beyond the hills, beyond instant gratification and beyond quick bucks, what we are experiencing provides us with the best chance to improve our institutions, from the courts to the legislature and to the executive branch of our government. A chance to fix our institutions is a chance to take our economy to greater heights. Laid out in front of us is a rare opportunity to fix our illiberal democracy.

We Malaysians have proven our capability at building skyscrapers, dams, bridges and cities out of nowhere, though cracks do emerge from time to time. At this juncture, I do believe we are in need of abstract rather than physical developments. Among these abstract developments is the strengthening of our institutions.

Strong institutions are an important check-and-balance mechanism and its importance is self-evident. Strong institutions enable the state to play out its foremost function and that is the protection of individual liberty. Strong institutions keep the state honest and true to its citizens.

A strong government, however, has no incentive for such a mechanism. History has proven this; after years of having a strong government, this country has seen its institutions weakened and subservient to the executive. If this country had continued to see a strong government, the chance to fix our institutions would be delayed further into the future while the decay continued.

That has slowly eroded credibility in our institutions as their independence has been continually suppressed for political purposes. As a result, trust in our institutions is probably at its lowest point ever. The civil service, for instance, once the pride of this country, is now a laughing stock.

This is especially worrying if the judiciary is involved. If the system is perceived as incredible and not neutral, it would be incapable of dispensing justice in the eyes of the public. Peaceful arbitration would be hard to achieve and might even give rise to a culture of vigilantes with gross disregard for the rule of law. Having that happening would be far worse than going through whatever we are experiencing at the moment.

This scenario may suffer from a little exaggeration but the first sign of trouble and the rationale for vigilantes is when the citizens themselves begin to frequently question rulings passed by the courts, believing that the institutions are unable or refuse to do their job.

Contrary to strong government, a small government does not have the power to undermine various public institutions such as the courts even if it wants to. A small government, in fact, gives a chance for these institutions to regain their independence once robbed by the executive.

The current political competition also puts pressure on these institutions to become more neutral, as they should be. Whereas once our institutions under strong government had only one political master to answer to, now the monopoly of power is broken.

With stronger institutions, people would have greater confidence in doing business in this country because they know that their rights would be secured. Corruption could be weeded out and this would bring the cost of doing business down as individuals feel empowered with credible public institutions. The improvement and newly rebuilt trust in these institutions could be one of those structural changes which would only benefit us.

To achieve that possibility, it is imperative for us to continue to fuel the flame of bipartisanship. Let the politicians squabble and continue to weaken the government. I am more interested in the rejuvenation of our institutions.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

Categories
Economics

[1736] Of temporary inflation could be a reason for unchanged rate

Malaysian central bankers have become victims of a running joke lately: if you are divided between maintaining a low unemployment rate and containing inflation, pray and do nothing.

On Friday last week, Bank Negara made known its decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.5% even as the local real interest rate is negative.

The recently published monetary policy statement is too hilarious for me to read quietly. It reminds me of what US President Harry Truman once famously said: “Give me a one-handed economist… All my economists say, ‘On the one hand… on the other’.” For sure, Truman would not find a one-handed economist on Jalan Dato’ Onn either.

The statement opens with a pessimistic tone by making references to the wage-price spiral and persistent inflation. It is all doom and gloom but then Bank Negara vows to take the “appropriate monetary policy response” to “maintain medium-term price stability and ensure that the high inflation does not undermine the longer growth prospects of the Malaysian economy.”

After comforting the public that the bank is prepared to do whatever is necessary to fight inflation, the bank says “while both the risks to higher inflation and the risks to slower growth have increased, the immediate concern is to avoid a fundamental economic slowdown that would involve higher unemployment”.

The statement ends with “based on this assessment, the Monetary Policy Committee has decided to keep the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at 3.50%.”

Smooth.

To be fair, however, the bank did indicate that projected slower economic growth is expected to keep inflation in check. The statement also seems to suggest, or at least I interpret it as such, that the inflation rate we are experiencing is likely only a one-time spike.

The fact that there are lags between wages and prices would discourage a wage-price spiral, further providing the case that this high rate of inflation is unsustainable. All those control mechanisms over prices, though lamentable, do a good job at delaying the catch-up game between wages and prices. In other words, it helps keep inflation tamer than what it could have been.

I think the possibility that this is a one-time hike in inflation is important in understanding why the bank did not increase the OPR last week.

Ben Benarke in a speech last year said: “”¦With inflation expectations well anchored, a one-time increase in energy prices should not lead to a permanent increase in inflation but only to a change in relative prices.”

This is probably what is happening at the moment, fuelling the rationale for Bank Negara to maintain the OPR.

But how confident are we that this is merely a one-off hike?

Well, the 7.7% inflation rate is mainly due to the June 5 hike in local retail fuel prices. It is fair to assume, especially with all the control regimes the state has put in place, that if there is another hike in inflation rate, it would probably be caused by another hike in retail fuel prices.

Within that context, world crude oil prices at the moment have taken a dive and the fall is nothing less dramatic. From close to US$150 per barrel, a record even in real price, it now hovers below US$125 per barrel.

Now, the jury may still be out but the demand curve has to contract sooner or later as market participants adapt to a new reality which calls for less reliance on fossil fuel. Just as how the 1970s taught us about our amazing versatility in solving crises, there is little reason for us to embrace the Malthusian logic now and throw in the towel.

If indeed the demand curve has shifted, then Bank Negara has all the more reason to expect that the current high rate of inflation is temporary in nature despite the expressed concern about persistent inflation. And the bank did indicate how temporary is temporary in the statement: by mid-2009, we should be able to party on and laugh all this off.

Perhaps more importantly, the government has little reason to increase prices at the pump if prices stabilize at the current level. With current global crude oil prices being so favorable to the state’s coffers, there has been talk within the Barisan Nasional government about reducing local retail fuel prices.

Apart from politically undercutting the Pakatan Rakyat, reduction of prices has the potential to bring down the inflation rate without the need to raise interest rate, thus providing the bank some room to do something about the unemployment rate.

But damn, negative real interest rate!

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.