Categories
Books, essays and others Fiction

[2977] How I learned to stop worrying and love Salman Rushdie’s Victory City

Reading Victory City, I found myself figuring out whether the places and persons mentioned in the book were real. It is like reading Dan Brown’s The Da Vinci Code: fiction is weaved through real history and that blurs the line separating the two.

But Victory City is worse than that. It is fashioned as a casual modern translation of a supposedly ancient text detailing the rise and fall of the Bisnaga Empire, which is a reference to a real entity that was the Vijayanagar Empire that covered much of southern India.

My knowledge of the Indian subcontinent history is not as good as that of other areas. That shows when I know of Vijayanagar largely from playing Europa Universalis IV.

Already having a superficial understanding of southern Indian history, the novel did not help. Is Victory City, actually based on something like Sejarah Melayu, an actual document however fanciful the details are? At the back of the novel, the author Salman Rushdie, lists sources he referred to, giving an aura of seriousness (aura of non-fiction?) to his work of fiction. He was painting a picture of 14th-15th-16th century southern India on an un-blanked canvas belonging to another painting. I was worried that would give me the wrong impression of Vijayanagar.

So worried was I, that I tried ascertaining the real history behind names and places in the book. Google. Wikipedia. The usual places for a quick lookup. But that worked up as a distraction, slowing my reading pace and disrupting the rhythm set by the book. Reading became a chore by too much.

Realizing that, I stopped my side quests, and enjoyed the book as it is, tracking the fictional life of the founder of Bisnaga, the fantastical almost immortal sage Pampa Kampana, born just before the empire was founded, and died as the empire collapsed more than two hundred years later.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2976] Guess the 2Q23 Malaysian GDP growth

The second quarter GDP for Malaysia will be published tomorrow, at noon Malaysian time.

As a reminder, the first quarter economy grew by 5.6% year-on-year. That was a surprisingly resilient quarter, despite deceleration in growth.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy expand in 2Q23 from a year ago?

  • 2% or slower (8%, 1 Votes)
  • 2.1%-3.0% (38%, 5 Votes)
  • 3.1%-4.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.1%-5.0% (23%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.1%-6.0% (8%, 1 Votes)
  • Faster than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 13

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All available statistics point towards a second quarter slowdown. Export numbers during the quarter have been horrible, and the country’s industrial output, given how Malaysia is an small, open economy, has not been doing well either.

Part of the reason why the decline in exports and industrial output is due to the extraordinary post-lockdown growth, amid severe supply chain complications: that created an extremely high base effect and that effect will likely persist until the third quarter.

But that should distract us from the ongoing global growth slowdown. Europe is in recession and China is in trouble. The only real bright spot is the US, which is surprising because much, much earlier, many had expected the country to go into a recession.

But the US strength itself is causing troubles elsewhere in the form of capital outflows and foreign exchange volatility, since it gives more room for the Fed to raise rates. The end of the hike cycle keeps getting delayed.

The good news is that the domestic labor market remains solid, and there has been a little bit more medium-term direction given out by this government. The political heat has come down a bit after the recent state elections, which hopefully, will convince the government to shift more attention towards the economy, and other nation-building exercise.

And challenges in the next several quarters will not be small. Next in the list is a strong El Nino phenomenon, resulting, very likely, the hottest season we will go through yet. That will require a little bit of preparation: water supply, electricity transmission, manufacturing inputs, health services, firefighting services, etc.

And I pray there will be no forest fire and haze this time around.

Categories
Politics & government Society

[2975] Do not blame Muda by too much

Ralph Nader was a popular figure in some of the progressive parts of America. He gave speeches in Ann Arbor several times when I lived there, and once ahead of the 2004 presidential election, he had to defend himself from vote-splitting accusation. In 2000, Al Gore lost the presidential election to George Bush with the narrowest of margin, with the Naders’ Greens won substantial votes as the third party candidate. Given that Nader and the Democrats’ bases overlapped, it was easy for bitter Democrats to claim that Nader took votes away from Al Gore, and paved the way for Bush’s presidency. Nader defended himself by saying that if he did not put himself on the ballot, those who had voted him would likely have not gone out to vote anyway.

I see Pakatan Harapan supporters blaming Muda for vote-splitting, and for easing Perikatan Nasional’s advances in Selangor. For a number of seats PH lost, the loss margin was smaller than the votes Muda won, even as Muda lost all of their deposits.

And it is easy to dislike Muda this time around. The episode in Bukit Gasing was Muda’s act of self-sabotage. Their asset declaration exercise was less than truthful, and so, to me, insulting. More than several candidates were nothing more than rich kids with little understanding of society or policy. Their campaign messages were jumbled up badly, confusing local, state and national policies all at once. I came out of the 2 weeks campaigning period from a position of neutral-to-mild skepticism near the beginning, to that of a dismissal by voting day. The latest set of candidates undid some good work earlier ones like Lim Wei Jiet have done.

Yes, it is easy to dislike Muda but Nader’s defense applies here.

The low turnout suggests PH bases were uninspired this time around. PH’s pandering to the deep conservatives on the far side is one possible reason for these people not to go out and vote. And there are people, who voted for PH the last round, openly said their would vote for a third choice as a sign of protest.

So, if there was no Muda, it is hard to say whether those Muda votes would have gone to PH or BN.

But more than that, for every vote Muda got, there were more PH voters who did not go out and vote. Blaming Muda is an excuse to ignore the much bigger point: PH base is dissatisfied. PH is committing the same mistake PH 2018-2020 did: trying to get the votes they could never get on the far side of the spectrum, at the expense of the middle voters and PH bases. And these voters protested and did not bother to go out.

This dissatisfaction has to be addressed.

Categories
Pop culture

[2974] Watching Oppenheimer

During my graduate years, I was surrounded by friends having extensive knowledge of films. Inside their mind stored what seemed to be a thick encyclopedia, with complete entries of titles, dates of release, actors and actresses, directors, languages, plots and every tiny things of interest. While I tried to keep up during our conversations over meals, or just lazing over grass during bright summer days, my less than broad education meant I regularly found listening instead of contributing. It was my luck these friends were kind and happy to entertain quizzical looks from me, and what might have seemed like noobish questions.

I have since developed a little more interest in moving pictures. Parts of that education have allowed me to name every Christopher Nolan’s movie now. Though I cannot say I have watched all of them, the ones I have watched impressed me at a very deep level. Nolan’s The Dark Knight Trilogy redefined Batman into a serious superhero movie, that could spark serious discussion of watch-ifs, and the motives of each character. In The Dark Knight, the second installment of the trilogy, there is an application of game theory. His doing of Superman through Man of Steel raised the prestige of the superhero, after years of being dragged through the ditch on television. Inception is mind blowing, playing with my understanding of reality. I remember watching Momento when I was young, and did not understand it (due for a rewatch). Interstellar is amazing, and it redefined the appearance of black hole in the popular mind, and made everybody a modern lay physicist. The Prestige, I just love it, and the movie probably convinced Hugh Jackman that he could be more than just Wolverine (or Van Helsing). I thought Jackman grew after, in Les Misérables, in The Greatest Showman, and in Logan. As for Tenet, let us ignore it here.

Together with Dunkirk, I think his latest, Oppenheimer, are probably the least cerebral among the whole collection. The storyline is direct, and there is not much of a twist. That does not make both of them any less amazing.

But I think, what makes Oppenheimer stands out out of the two is its sheer noisiness. I may suffer from incomplete recollection to make a complete comparison, but I would venture to claim his latest does not give my ears a rest from the very beginning, right up to the successful test of the atomic bomb at Los Alamos in the middle of the movie. For a movie that runs for three (freaking) hours, that is quite a long exposure. Not one second is there a pause. There is always background music, or it might better be described as loud pounding foreboding ambience music.

Combined with a fast paced story, and a dialogue that keeps going, it feels like watching a race car movie! When I was in the cinema watching it, my heart was beating faster than usual trying to match the tempo of the ambience music. It is a confusing feeling, given that Oppenheimer is a very talky movie that shows off its nerdiness by citing Einstein, Bohr, Teller, Feynman and several other big names, with the only big visual spectacle is the atomic bomb test explosion.

When the silence came, it came as a relief. But of course, seconds later, an even louder shockwave came afterwards.

And I watched Barbie afterwards. You should too. Your ears need that rest with happy songs.

Categories
Politics & government

[2973] Harapan must not let Pakatan pussies speak for the coalition

We all understand why Pakatan Harapan needed to ally with Barisan Nasional. At the very end of the last political cycle, we were faced with stark choices: have an imperfect alliance between the reform-minded individuals and everything the grand old party presents, or live under an incompetent conservative regime that would rewrite what Malaysia would mean so completely. Given the world as it was at that particular point of that, the imperfect alliance was the preferred option.

Such imperfect alliance will always present Pakatan members and supporters with challenges. Compromises will have to be made and that is completely understandable and reasonable.

But not all things can be compromised, and compromises must involve both sides, not just one. If only one side compromises, and willing to compromise everything, then something is wrong.

That is where some Pakatan members and supporters are today.

Whenever new political appointments were made for the benefits of Umno, some Pakatan supporters would use the imperfect alliance as an excuse. “This is not a Pakatan government. It is a unity government.”

Now, there is movement to get Najib Razak, barely several months in prison, pardoned. Disappointingly, some Pakatan supporters now use the same template excuse without even thinking what it means. Too eager to defend the Pakatan government against any criticism, the template is used as get out of jail card for every single problem the government faces. They do not even bother to right the wrong. So fearful of any threat of instability to the government, they lose their backbone. They bend over without making any effort to push back.

Those are who I call Pakatan pussies. No backbone. No accountability.

These spineless pussies, when faced with difficult questions from Pakatan supporters, would go back to their list of lazy excuses and say “do you want a Pas government, or Pakatan? Choose.”

Betting chips down when they are not

The stark choices Malaysians collectively, and Pakatan supporters specifically, faced in November 2022 came to being when the chips were down. It was the nuclear option at the very end of the road.

We needed the nuclear option to sharpen the mind of many. “Pas or Pakatan” was a simple decision tree to let people discover for themselves the consequences of November choices. Veil of ignorance, so-to-speak. You present the many with the destinations, and make them work for themselves the roads towards the preferred destination. These allowed them to see the world as it was, and accept the decision made, however unpalatable the road was.

We are no longer in November 2022. The pressures are much less intense. The timeline is easier. In fact, attempts to get Najib Razak pardoned have not even started earnestly.

Yet, these Pakatan pussies are inappropriately using the nuclear option, betting the chips down too soon.

Red lines

Pardoning Najib Razak, in my mind, is a red line in any compromise between Pakatan and Barisan. I have at least three reasons why that is so.

One, he and his supporters have not expressed any remorse. In a society where corruption is still rampart, example must be set so we can begin to reset our morals. To free an unremorseful man is the wrong message to send in pursuit of a moral society.

Two, it opens Pakatan Harapan to partisan attacks from Pas and their allies. So far, Perikatan Nasional, Bersatu especially, appeared have been crippled. They are now in search of an issue to rejuvenate their political fortune. They have tried to make EPF withdrawals as a rallying point. They have not been successful there. Pakatan Harapan seemingly blessing the pardon—does not matter explicitly or implicitly—will be the one point Perikatan needs. Pas (and Umno) did that with ICERD and the death of  Muhammad Adib Mohd Kassim, and came back from the dead in 2019.

Three, the long run is not as static as many make it out to be. In November 2022 when decisions had to be made in a matter of days if not weeks, the decision tree in which the nuclear option was represented was static. This is especially so when election had been concluded. It is a mistake to think the same statics will work over longer time horizon. People… voters… adapt to situations. If you keep using the nuclear options too many times, then people will begin to dismiss it and become immune to any similar exhortation. Additionally, it is quite easy to imagine more and more parties entering the arena competing for Pakatan’s base as a sign of dissatisfaction. At the very least, non-voting will be an issue. This has happened before not too long ago. In other words, in the long term, there is a real risk of current Pakatan voters deserting the coalition.

The final point is not a mere theoretical musing. In 2009 until 2013 when Najib was busy promoting various liberalization that he appeared to be a liberal, his men and women dismissed concerns about Umno’s voting base. “They would have no where to go.” That was quickly proven untrue in 2013, which partially led Najib to turn around and embraced racist politics more rabidly.

Message: do not take your voting base for granted.

Get a backbone and push back

Compromises have to be made. But there have to be red lines. Pardoning Najib is one of those red lines. Pardoning Najib risks the long-term viability of Pakatan Harapan, and we need Pakatan Harapan to succeed in order to push back racist and fascist forces.

Pakatan needs to push back. We need to tell Umno we will not support any pardoning, and in fact, opposes it. We can make it difficult, and raise the cost of them doing so.

And please, no kop-out by saying it is a royal prerogative. In so many ways, the royals are accountable to the people too. Rakyat itu Raja.

At the end of the day, Pakatan Harapan will have our urban fortresses. Right now, it is Umno that faces annihilation with Bersatu and Pas outside having the grand old party for lunch. It is Umno that faces existential crisis, not Pakatan. Remember, that crisis is Najib’s own doing. Too many in Umno are too blind to see what outsiders already know. Here, Pakatan needs to advise Umno the folly they are committing.

If the stubbornness continues, Pakatan needs to be careful so we do not sink with Umno.

This is why we need to push back.

And this is why Pakatan Harapan cannot let these Pakatan pussies speak for Pakatan. Not only they are spineless, they are myopic too.