Categories
Politics & government

[1553] Of Malaysian netroot, arise

You know, in the US, there is this fraction among the Democrats called the netroot. While small in size, they are extremely vocal. How vocal?

Let just say that when the Daily Kos organized their annual convention not long ago at the beginning of nomination race for the Democrat candidate for the President of the United States, almost all Democrat candidates decided to show up to appeal to the netroot.[1]

The Malaysian netroot has yet to play a large role for any election but the upcoming election provide a golden opportunity for them to do so. Judging by frequent mentions of the local blogosphere — specifically, the uniquely Malaysian term: “sopo“; the socio-political bloggers — by several ministers over the mainstream media in the recent past, the netroot is certainly commanding some influence over public opinion. In fact, I will venture to say that the Malaysian netroot’s influence is at its greatest peak yet and is showing no sign of retreat.

This is a disadvantage to BN which controls the mainstream media. BN’s tendency to demonize the netroot has virtually (no pun intended) guaranteed hostility between BN and the netroot. In fact, BN has pushed the netroot so hard that many in the netroot, of whom in real life are mostly urban or young Malaysians, suddenly they found themselves siding with DAP and PKR.

DAP has launched a good start with its videos and blogs spreading like wildfire over the local blogospere. PKR is expected to follow suit.

KUALA LUMPUR – THE opposition Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) hopes to create voter buzz by fielding a batch of young and Internet-savvy candidates for the elections, as it tries to stamp out its image as a one-man show.

[…]

The party was almost wiped out in the 2004 general election. It lost four other Parliament seats and five seats in various state assemblies.

This time, it wants to field more fresh faces to appeal to young voters, and is using blogs, popular networking site Facebook and VCDs as campaigning tools.

Many of its young candidates are educated overseas, and all are avid bloggers.

British graduate Nik Nazmi, 26, is one such member the PKR is counting on. [Keadilan wants to revamp its image as a party dominated by Anwar Ibrahim. Straits Times. February 16 2008]

In many ways, this election will be the experiential exercise for the netroot and those whom seek the support of the netroot.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — CHICAGO – We’re at the second annual YearlyKos convention, where liberal bloggers have convened with excitement that almost all the Democratic presidential candidates are courting them in person on Saturday.

This was quite the coup, since a year ago at the first Kos convention, only one current Democratic presidential candidate, Bill Richardson, showed up. (Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and Gov. Tom Vilsack — who were considered potential 2008 Democratic candidates at the time — were also in attendance.) [Clinton and the Bloggers. The Caucus. August 2 2007][↩]

Categories
Politics & government

[1549] Of dissolution of the Parliament

According to Reuters, the PM has obtained consent from the King to dissolve the Parliament:

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Reuters) – Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has received consent from the country’s king to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections, a source close to the prime minister said on Wednesday.

Separately, an aide to the premier said Abdullah would hold a news conference later on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. local time (0430 GMT), though he declined to give further details [Malaysia PM to call for snap poll Wednesday. Guardian. February 13 2008]

Further:

KUALA LUMPUR (Thomson Financial) – Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has called for a news conference at 12.30 pm at his office in the Putrajaya administrative capital, state-owned Bernama news agency said Wednesday.

Abdullah is widely expected to announce the dissolution of parliament to pave the way for elections to be held next month, said political commentators. [Malaysian Prime Minister calls for news conference at 12.30 pm. Forbes. February 13 2008]

Let the game begins.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — somehow, all this feels trivial:

“The PM actually wanted to dissolve parliament next week but the Agong (king) is leaving overseas this evening for a private holiday, so last night he (the prime minister) changed his mind,” the source said. [Malaysia PM to call for snap poll Wednesday. Guardian. February 13 2008]

Categories
Politics & government

[1544] Of Romney quits

And there were two:

Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who sought to position himself as the true conservative choice for the Republican presidential nomination, announced Thursday afternoon that he had ended his campaign. [Romney Drops Out of Presidential Race. NYT. February 7 2008]

Will this be bad news for McCain?

It has been speculated that McCain won despite opposition from the social conservative because of votes split to Huckabee and Romney. Without Huckabee, Romney would have performed much better in the latest primaries. Without Romney, likewise for Huckabee.

With Huckabee being the only social conservative candidate, religious conservatives in the GOP have just one candidate to choose from. Whether those conservative votes would be enough to jack Huckabee up past McCain, we will have to wait and see.

I wonder who Romney will endorse as the Republican candidate though. I do hope it is McCain. Having a person that will disrespect secularism in the US sounds too scary to even imagine.

Categories
Politics & government

[1541] Of go McCain!

Although I’ve never minded the role of the underdog, and have relished as much as anyone come-from-behind wins, tonight I think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican party’s front-runners. And I don’t mind one bit.”

— John McCain in a February 6 2008 post-Super Tuesday speech.

While prefer Ron Paul the most, he has no chance to clinch the nomination for the GOP. Given the current dynamics, especially when religious conservatives in the US are going against McCain and supporting Huckabee and Romney instead, I think I will be fine with McCain. I certainly do not want to see the religious conservatives to have too much influence over the Oval Office. Besides, Romney flip-flops too much anyway.

As with his unbearable stances ranging from war to abortion, I think a Congress-controlled Democrats could balance things out.

And if I had to choose between Obama and Clinton, I would have to go with Obama. There are several reasons what that is so. One is insurance. I do not like Clinton’s call for a mandate. Second, the issue on Iraq. Clinton refused to apologize for her vote to go war. Third, that “there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America — there’s the United States of Americaspeech during the 2004 Democratic National Convention. I watched Obama on TV for the first time and I, a foreign citizen on American soil, was inspired by Obama.

Still, between Obama or Clinton and McCain, I will go for McCain. Reason? Free trade.

There is talk that the best ticket for the Republicans is the McCain-Huckabee; McCain attracts the independents while Huckabee fires up the religious conservatives. I hope that will not be the case though. I want the religious conservatives to be out of the equation altogether comes November 4 2008. A McCain-Giuliani would be okay (that would make the evangelicals go cuckoo!) Or maybe, McCain-Paul! (LOL!)

There is still a long way to go but for now at least, the religious conservatives are defeated.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1540] Of Nash equilibrium for DAP-PAS-PKR

Politics 101 wonders who should be the next opposition leader. Specifically (since his post is short, I might as well reproduce it wholly here):

Hypothetical question: If DAP and PAS win 18 federal seats each in the elections and PKR wins one, which party would the PKR MP back for Leader of the Opposition?

Is the DAP doing enough to ensure, come what may, it will continue to hold the Opposition Leadership Office?

Is winning 18 seats and letting Mullah Hadi Awang take over the islamist agenda as Opposition Leader a victory for secularism? [Hypothetical question. Politics 101 Malaysia. February 6 2008]

This of course asked with an assumption that these parties would fail to form the next government.

If the political scenario does reach that stage, it is presumptuous for anyone of us to conclude that candidates for the next opposition leader would be either DAP or PAS. It could be from PKR. In a situation where a small party holds the tie-breaker vote, it may actually have disproportionate influence over its larger partners.

In fact, the Nash equilibrium in that situation is to have a MP from PKR to be the next opposition leader as proven in the following diagram:

Some rights reserved. By Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams.

For those unfamiliar with game theory, this is how you read the diagram.

In the payoff boxes (the ones with a pair of numbers in it), the first figure is the payoff for Player 1 (DAP) while the second figure corresponds to Player 2’s (PAS) payoff. The numbers are ordinal and not cardinal.

The first box — named P1’s optimality — shows Player 1’s (DAP) best responses given Player 2’s (PAS) action. Those responses have been highlighted in yellow.

The third box — P2’s optimality — shows Player 2’s (PAS) best responses given Player 1’s (DAP) action. Those responses have been highlighted in yellow too.

The third box highlights only overlapped responses and these responses are known as Nash equilibrium. As you can see, there is only an equilibrium.

The underlying rationale behind matrices and payoff is simple: there are 3 rules.

One is that PKR refrains from voting DAP and PAS; it only votes for itself. An either-or voting for DAP or PAS by the smaller party is bound to hurt its relationship with the two large parties. In chess, it is called zugzwang; any movement is unfavorable and the best move is not to move at all but of course, skipping a turn is not an option in chess. Unlike chess however, PKR does not need to move in this political maneuver. If PKR totally refrains from voting at all, boxes with {6,5} and {5,6} will be {0,0}. Why?

That leads us to rationale number 2: the worst outcome for all players is the lack of a leader. In the matrices, payoff {0,0} illustrates a situation of no opposition leader and that happens when both parties vote for themselves with PKR abstaining for voting.

Three, PAS and DAP hate each other gut. This is observable in payoffs {10,1} and {1,10}.

If a person plays out the coordination game, actions by both DAP and PAS that overlap with each other is to choose PKR as the opposition leader.

In case PKR totally refrains from voting, there will be three Nash equilibria. Do you know which ones?