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Politics & government

[1759] Of we want McCain back!

An article in The Economist describes why independents love McCain and how McCain might lose support from the independents.

Fair use.

Another broad concern, too, needs scotching at the Republican convention and during the election campaign that will follow it. In his desire to get elected, Mr McCain has been prepared to abandon some of the core beliefs that made him so attractive. This is not so much true of foreign policy (Mr McCain has long been a hawk, since the successful NATO campaigns in Bosnia and Kosovo). But even here, he used to talk much more about multilateralism than he does now. On the campaign trail, Mr McCain has tended to stress the more hawkish side of his nature, for instance by promoting his idea for a ”league of democracies” that risks being needlessly divisive.

Too polite to the right

But it is on domestic policy that Mr McCain has tacked to the right more disquietingly. Doubtless he feels he needs to shore up his support among the conservatives who mistrust him. But the result is that he could easily alienate the independent supporters who are his great strength. Mr Obama will sensibly hope to woo them away.

Mr McCain used to be a passionate believer in limited government and sound public finances; a man with some distaste for conservative Republicanism and its obsession with reproductive matters. On the stump, though, he has offered big tax cuts for business and the rich that he is unable to pay for, and he is much more polite to the religious right, whom he once called ”agents of intolerance”. He has engaged in pretty naked populism, too, for instance in calling for a ”gas-tax holiday”. If this is all just a gimmick to keep his party’s right wing happy, it may disappear again. But that is quite a gamble to take.

[…]

Hawkish foreign policy, irresponsible tax cuts, more talk about religion and abortion: all this sounds too much like Bush Three, the label the Democrats are trying to hang around the Republican’s neck. We preferred McCain One. [Bring back the real McCain. The Economist. August 28 2008]

Amen.

Oh, how I wish it would have been a McCain-Lieberman instead. The more I read about Palin, the scarier the story becomes.

Categories
Politics & government

[1757] Of McCain-Palin officially makes me neutral

I like McCain because I think he could get free market with green conscious policies in place. And he has never really pandered too much to the far right. It is the rarity of a politician in support of free market as well as green policies that really attracts me.

The unfavorable points about him from my point of view is his support for a pseudo-science called intelligence design but I figure, that is just something I just have to live with it. Another is his disrespect for individual liberty.

His foreign policy, well, I share Ron Paul’s view. But in any case, Barack Obama’s policy is not too good either. He has said that is he prepared to attack Al Qaeda in Pakistan even without approval from Pakistan and he do not rule out military option against Iran. Given my non-interventionist tendency, I thought both are too hawkish for my taste though I think Obama’s position is not as far right as McCain.

When Palin was announced as McCain’s running mate, I must admit that I was clueless of who she was. I was curious about her and after reading about her, I cannot say I like her as much as I like McCain.

She seems like a typical Republican, unlike McCain whom has proven willing to break ranks on debates involving the environment and abortion. Palin, however supports the drilling of Artic National Wildlife Refuge, much like the rest of the Republicans and I have problem with that. And I am sure, McCain too should have issues with Palin on that particular subject. In any case, Palin is strengthening the parts which I dislike about the Republican Party.

The Obama-Biden campaign is somewhat to the opposite to McCain-Palin. The Democrats are relatively for greater involvement of the state in the economy versus the Republicans attachment to free market philosophy while the former advocate individual liberty and the latter does not do so as much as I would them to be. This is a typical scenario for US politics, always by default, in my opinion, forcing libertarians into a dilemma.

But this US Presidential election is anything but traditional. The traditional line that divides the Republicans and the Democrats has been blurred. Republicans for the environment? Ridiculous, eh? But I still remember McCain proposing an act that sought to limit carbon emissions. He policy on ethanol is also endearing to me.

As for the Democrats, I do find Obama’s proposed economic policies are not too bad and I thought the legacy of the New Democrats did a lot of good. I am still concerned with Obama’s attitude towards free trade. Nevertheless, the influence of the New Democrats further redraws the boundary between the two parties and the line is anything but straight. Just one final example of why pigeon hole will not work in this election: Palin is somewhat a liberal on gay rights and a Republican at that.

Now, I am just here, undecided. And I thought, I cannot vote anyway. So, I just want to enjoy the show.

Categories
Politics & government

[1755] Of the Clintons at the 2008 DNC

[youtube]G3r6xvwPGcY[/youtube]

“And that makes the two of us”:

[youtube]268ncnoitEc[/youtube]

Categories
Politics & government Society

[1754] Of enough with the swearing already

I thought we Malaysians had gone a long way in our methodology in seeking truth and justice. Apparently, I have been overly optimistic.

The Germanic people of the past subscribed to the idea of judicial duel. In absence of witnesses or a confession, they advocated the holding of a duel between the accused and the accuser to determine the status of a case. The winner will be acknowledged as being on the side of the truth. The loser meanwhile will be wrong.

After awhile and too many deaths later, enough individuals finally come to realize that this kind of trial is really about proficiency in weapon handling or strength rather than truth.

Not only law like this is barbaric, outcome of the duel has no bearing whatsoever on the truth.

In a more general sense and more widespread in other parts of the world in the past, trials by ordeal were favored. The status of the accused is determined by having him to undergo unsavory tests. Just like the judicial duel method, the result of any trial by ordeal has little correlation with the guilt or the innocence of the accused.

For the judicial duel, the accuser bears some cost in making any accusation without any proof since he could lose his life if he is not careful. This is a particularly important aspect of the method because the presence of cost acts to potentially discourage any accusation from being made so recklessly.

As for trial by ordeal, the accused cannot simply proclaim his innocence with impunity. There is no cost to the accuser however but at least, there is some still cost to one side.

Regardless, in both cases, words are not cheap and cannot be taken lightly.

In Malaysia at the moment, not only a number of individuals are mocking our judiciary system by debasing as well as preempting it, it has become a trend lately to swear on the Koran to prove one’s case. Somebody may argue that if the person lies, retribution may come in the afterlife but the reality is that, there is no cost in doing so in this life.

Hence, such oaths are cheap.

If such confessions are applied as the benchmark of truth, then desperate people could simply assert their innocence successfully even when all evidence clearly point to them. The acceptance of swearing on the Koran as the benchmark of truth is really about granting somebody a get-out-of-jail-for-free card.

Needless to say, it is impossible for justice to thrive in such situation; that card makes any judiciary system redundant.

On top of that, when such swearing and confession of innocence could be made so cheaply, is there a reason to trust the confession?

No, there is none.

If there were a reason, then we would probably be just as civilized as the barbaric society of the past in terms of dispensing justice. Just as the outcomes of judicial duel and trial by ordeal have little to do with guilt or innocence of a person, so too the oaths on the Koran.

In this imperfect world, it is only prudent to assume that every individual is interested in advancing his own interest. Whether we like it or not, it is safer to assume that the willingness to swear has more to do with promotion of self interest than anything else. Any more well meaning assumption only qualifies oneself as being naive.

Besides, does a person need to tell the truth only when he swears on over the Koran?

What an immoral world would we live in if the answer to the question is yes. Truly, the highest of all morals call upon all of us, Muslims or otherwise, to endeavor to be truthful even without the presence of the Koran or any scripture which any of us consider as holy.

It is possible that those whom swear on the Koran do not think much of the scripture but only do so to manipulate the masses. By merely taking an oath, the so-called confessors might believe that they could get away with anything.

If indeed this is what happening, it is no less than an insult to the Koran. This kind of insult is far worse than any cartoon or work of literature could ever throw to any Muslim.

The only way to know whether an insult has been committed is for Muslims to demand investigation into any oath made by citing the Koran. Any kind of serious investigation will impose a cost to the act of swearing on the Koran and this has the potential of discouraging brazen lies from being labeled as truth so publicly.

Moral and religion aside, apart from the obvious fact that these swearing and confessions are cheap, there are several reasons why swearing on the Koran or any scripture for that matter should be outright rejected in no uncertain terms.

One of them is the fact that such action, if it becomes accepted at the benchmark of truth, undermines our judiciary. What is the point of maintaining all the courts if the innocence and guilt of a person could be determined by a mere oath?

Surely millions of Ringgit could be invested elsewhere if we already had found a barometer of truth that is far more reputable than our jaded judiciary system.

Secondly, in a number of cases where the acts of swearing on the Koran have taken place, these cases do not exclusively belong to that of the Muslim community. Many of these cases are of national interests which cut well beyond boundary drawn by religions. The natural question arising from this fact is that why should any non-Muslim accept the Koran as the benchmark of truth?

Even if these cases were exclusive matters of the Muslim community in a way that both the accuser and the accused are Muslims, justice does not exclusively concern that of the accuser and the accused. A phrase commonly attributed to Edmund Burke puts it succinctly: all that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.

In the name of truth and justice, the issues should be brought to the courts. Let a neutral ground be the medium. Bring on the evidence, keep the Koran at home and let the jury deliberate earnestly.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

A version of this article was first published in The Malaysian Insider.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1753] Of what Permatang Pauh could and could not tell us

From the very beginning, the 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election is not about whether Anwar Ibrahim will win it. It is a question of how much will he win. The magnitude of his win could answer several more questions too but not all.

The first question asks whether support for Anwar Ibrahim has changed since March 8. It is tempting to link the magnitude of his win with support which he will receive at the ballot box but a person makes such connection at his own peril. The reason is that there is really no benchmark to measure this in a conclusive manner.

The kosher way of measuring whether support for Anwar Ibrahim has increased or otherwise based on difference in magnitude: this win needs to be compared with Anwar Ibrahim’s last win in the same place. This method will reasonably control noise that would otherwise drown the signal which we seek.

The problem is that Anwar Ibrahim did not contest in the last election in Permatang Pauh. Instead, it was his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. And the last time Anwar Ibrahim contested there was so long ago in 1995 when the situation was very different. The very different scenes make the comparison between the 1995 and the 2008 results useless in answering the question.

Any comparison between tomorrow’s by-election and the result of March 8 comes closer in answering which voters prefer better between Anwar and Wan Azizah. Even this pretends that the effect of their opponents is practically negligible.

The closest possibly way of measuring whether support for Anwar Ibrahim has changed for better or for worse based on tomorrow result is to assume that Wan Azizah is a proxy for Anwar. The assumption of proxy however ignores any individual effect that exists.

This same assumption however cannot be used to measure how damaging all the negative politics — especially the allegation of sodomy and the subsequent oath on the Koran — employed against Anwar.

While it is true that all that attacks launched by Barisan Nasional against the former Deputy Prime Minister will have an adverse effect to his prospect of being elected into office, it is really hard to know what is the exact or even the rough magnitude of that effect based simply on result of Permatang Pauh by-election. This is especially so when accusation of sodomy is really a weapon which cannot be used against Wan Azizah: Wan Azizah and Anwar are very different for the obvious reason even if proxy is a useful statistical tool. This difference renders the proxy method somewhat unreliable than it usually is.

A better way to measure the effect of the allegations made against Anwar Ibrahim is to have consistent polling, which we probably have thanks to the Merdeka Centre. Alas, that sample may not necessarily describe the preference of voters registered in Permatang Pauh. And result from the Permatang Pauh definitely cannot be used to gauge national sentiment in a satisfactory manner.

An easier question to answer with regard the upcoming by-election is which between Anwar Ibrahim and Wan Azizah Wan Ismail do voters of Permatang Pauh prefer. Another concerns the support level of Parti Keadilan Rakyat among the voters of Permatang Pauh. In both cases, the methodology in finding out the answers is straight forward.

So, do keep these things in mind before you read any political analysis by so-called pundits. Obviously, these questions put forth are not exhausting. Neverthless, the question are useful in identifying sweep conclusion. And sweeping conclusion is the last thing we need to understand the very messy political scenario we are currently in.