Category: Politics & government

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Economics Environment Politics & government Sports

[427] Of Louis van Gaal and Ajax

van Gaal has just resigned as Ajax Techical Director amidst Ajax’s victory in a Champions’ League match. The reason for the resignation is unclear at the moment but I must say, I am glad van Gaal is out.

Inasmuch he was the one that brought Ajax to its 1990’s European glory, I have the impression that van Gaal’s presence in Amsterdam is not helpful for most of the times, especially when it comes to the surprise sale of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Juventus a few weeks ago. In my opinion, the sale was done is a very disappointing way. Not only the timing of the transfer was unbelievable – leaving Ajax a mere 3-day cushion to find an extra striker – the amount of money recieved was way below expectation.

Nevertheless, rumor has it that van Gaal is resigning in order to get a shot at Koeman’s job. I hope that is not the case and sincerely I hope he is gone for good. Even when he arrived, I didn’t celebrate it as much. When Barcelona hates him to certain degree, you have to wonder why.

No more van Gaal. All I want is a rejuvenated Ajax and a revenge against Bayern Munich.

With the vacancy, I would very much like Johan Cruyff to be Ajax’s new Technical Director. He was considered along with van Gaal for the post earlier this year.

In any case, Ajax reported a respectable level of profit for this fiscal year. Therefore, they are expected to buy new players to strengthen their offensive capability in the near future. I hope we will find a good player because with the miserable Sonck up front and Ibrahimovic gone, Ajax doesn’t have any notable striker.

Regardless of that, a few exciting young players from the famous Ajax’s youth academy are making waves. It should be interesting to see another van der Vaart or Wesley Sneijder or, if it is not too much, another van Basten.

p/s – something is on the roll in Myanmar. I’ll just be an a-hole and say the military junta sucks.

pp/s – Unbelievable.

Newmont lawyer Luthfi Yazid told Reuters news agency that the study’s verdict “strengthens our stance that our client did not damage nor pollute the environment” around Buyat Bay.

I rather believe the locals than a lawyer that represents a multinational mining firm. The trees won’t sway if there is no wind blowing. Here, the trees were uprooted and they asserted the wind is not blowing.

I am compelled to allege that a few strings had been pulled off.

Categories
Kitchen sink Politics & government

[422] Of Screenshots and a conspiracy theory

Some time last week, Jeff Ooi, one of Malaysia’s foremost blogger, got into trouble. He was not the source of the turmoil but rather, the source was an unsavory comment left on one of Screenshots’ entry, Jeff Ooi’s blog that, as some would say, degraded Islam.

A pro-government national paper caught up the news and sent a pretty calm crowd to indulge in a massive session of duckspeak. Shortly afterward, somebody in Ministry of Internal Security said that the Internal Security Act (ISA), an act that essentially allows detention without trial, could be utilized against the author of Screenshots for instigating racial harmony. While this happened, support for Screenshots was mounting from the blogosphere. Some of the support came as far as the other end of the planet. The famed Slashdot posted something on this too. Reason is, if ISA were used, the freedom of speech is being threatened yet for another day. More importantly, if a blogger is going to be arrested under ISA, it would be an unprecedented move in suppression of free speech. Well, not unprecedented. China has done that.

Luckily, the hoo-ha died out but, I notice something else.

Take note that, all the while this all happened, Screenshots was and still is rallying for a fundraising effort. In particular, observe at the figure of the fund. The fund was first officially announced by Screenshots on September 27th this year. The intention was probably first brought up on September 21st or earlier. Now, bear with me while I puke out the boring details.

Around the same day that the comment that caused the uproar was made, which was September 30 — of which I believe the water was still as calm as Lake Tahoe — the fund stood at RM818.68. A day later, the fund grew almost 100%; to be precise it was at RM1570.96.

Screenshots usually receives a lot of visitors per day by some standard. I would say the average, discounting the absolute maximum was around 3500 visitors. This rough estimate could be easily obtained from Screenshots.

Two days later, the fund stood RM0.69 short of RM2000.00. On the same day, the number of visitors was significantly different from the Screenshots’ average of visitors for about 30 days. It was approximately 9000 visitors though I don’t know whether that 9000 represents 9000 unique people. From my experience, the counter that Screenshots is using doesn’t differentiate the same IP after some period of time. However, assuming that the 9000 visitors are indeed unique and on average, there are 3500 unique visitors, with the difference from the average and the actual visitor on each of those 30 days is less than 1000, 9000 is absolutely big and unusual. Screenshots refers to that 9000 as abnormal traffic. More data here.

On October 2nd, Screenshots was brought to national attention. With this, it is sensible for anybody to expect a spike in the number of visitors and this definitely explains, as a statistician would say, the error in the statistical model, if a statistical model were to be constructed. On the normal curve, that abnormal traffic figure will be at the very end of one tail (well, not really at the end of the tail for the mathematics junkies but you get the idea. The t-test is huge.).

Then the fund lingered at RM4181.61, another 100% increase. Looking back in time, that is a 400% increase from September 30.

According to Screenshots on September 5th, the number of visitors was greater on September 5th than the day before. As of today, the fund grew by about 50% to RM6779.37.

Now, there is a relationship with the number of visitors and the number of fund though my professor always asserts correlation is not causation. But if a statistical model were to be constructed, I strongly believe there will be a strong positive correlation between the two variables. More importantly, I don’t think anybody needs any lesson in econometrics to realize good marketing brings large customers and large customers translate to large sale. In this case, large contribution.

Now, consider a conspiracy theory.

Let’s say Jeff Ooi knows this. Also, let’s say Jeff Ooi has a friend at Jalan Riong (the location where the national paper resides in the real world. You see that something outside the window? That’s the real world. And no, not MS Windows you bastard, the window!), of which I am sure he does; a little bird at the very least.

Now, let’s think. Does it make sense for a national paper to care so much for the blog that, that particular national paper ran an article concerning that blog on the front page?

Rayden would say, I don’t think so. Well, it is possible for a blog to get onto a national paper, as proven by Instapundit. Instapundit got onto the New York Times but it was hardly in the front page. I mean c’mon, front page? Don’t you have any other f-news? If Harakah did it, it’s understandable but Berita Harian? Dude, you need to uphold some of your reputation! (I’m not saying that Berian Harian has a lot of reputation to start with.)

A part of my want to say, some little bird at Jalan Riong wants to help Screenshots’ fundraising effort. So, a little publicity doesn’t hurt, especially when the firm at Jalan Riong is one of the most influential (despite being excessively biased) media in Malaysia.

Either that or the people at Jalan Riong hate Screenshots so much that they really are trying hard to pin Jeff Ooi down to the ground, which seems to be apparently true and would probably explains the front page. Pure hatred is strong enough a reason to verify the front page.

If latter is true, then the plan is backfiring. Instead of pinning Screenshots to the ground, it only helped the fundraising effort by at most 720% increase from RM818.68.

Oh, well, met my academic advisor yesterday. She asked me whether I have anything after graduation or not. I said not yet. She then said, if you want, you could take a class in the B-School next semester. Sounds like a good plan for me. Maybe I could even convince my parents to sponsor me into B-School. But in any case, if I still can’t find anything, I’ll stay in school for one more semester. Graduating in December is boring anyway. It’s too cold and too early to graduate.

And yeah, the last time Minnesota met Michigan, Minnesota faced a rheumatic arrest after seeing Michigan rallying from a loss to a win in the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, Minnesota (ranked #13, one rung above Michigan) will get a heart attack immediately in the first quarter.

Go Blue baby!

p/s – I meant cardiac arrest, not rheumatic arrest.

Categories
Environment Humor Politics & government Sports

[419] Of the Russian ratification of the Kyoto Protocol

Today is Thursday, September 30th, 2004. A day that, in my humble opinion, should be called the Kyoto Day.

The Russian cabinet approves the Kyoto Protocol today, barely a few hours ago, blowing life and even extra strength to the once-zombie international treaty on climate change. With Russia backing the Protocol, a legacy of the Earth Summit, the quorum needed for the Protocol to come into force is met.

This victory, the one that might change the fate of our home and us as a species, is probably one of the most important achievements in human cooperation. With such unison, surely pressure will be mounting on the next President of the United States, whoever it might be, to give Kyoto for another thought.

As this great development happens in Moscow, Lieberman and McCain have been continuously working on a bipartisan effort to push for the Lieberman-McCain Climate Stewardship Act in DC. The act seeks to introduce capping and trading of greenhouse gasses emission which in general is similar to part of the idea in the Kyoto Protocol. I can proudly say that I and a few others have written a snail mail petition to Michigan representatives Carl Levin and Deborah Stabenow to urge them to support the act a few weeks ago via Environmental Defense. So far, though support for the act has been steadily gone up, it still shy a few votes from being passed. The proposal will be brought back to the Senate floor soon for another voting.

While the east coast is stuck with red tape, California reaffirms itself as the most political green caucus in the United States. Earlier, California passed the world’s toughest emission regulation and later claimed to be an global warming free-zone (though I think that term is by far is ridiculous but hey, we got what we want. I’m won’t complain too much on the so-called global warming free-zone.) Under the regulation, cars and trucks need to cut their emission by 25 percent while SUV must cut 18 percent before 2016 and it must start as soon as 2009. The auto industry has called this stupid but I say they have gotten off the hook long enough. It’s time they face the music.

At the same time, San Francisco, one of the hotbeds of US environmental movement, plans to reduce 2.5 million tones of carbon dioxide emission by 2012. It is believed that New York would follow the lead soon. How soon is yet to be seen but nonetheless, the snowball effect is taking shape. With enough momentum, hopefully, the Senate won’t be able to refuse their responsibility to reduce the six greenhouse gasses.

These are exciting time for the advocates of Kyoto Protocol. I myself am very excited. Barely a few years ago, things were gloom right after the US removed itself from the treaty and then calling others to do same. Australia joined the US, Canada almost. But now, it’s time we call the US and Australia to reverse and ratify Kyoto.

The European Union must be commended for having a hand in Russia’s change of heart. Without the EU, it would not be possible for Russia to ratify the treaty and in turn, it would be impossible for the Protocol to come to existence. Possibly, there would be less time for us to act against the mistake of our parents.

The initial stage has now been set. It is a high time to call in the developing countries, especially China en India, to join in the fight. It’s time to rally to world against what might come in the future.

Now is the exact point in time where we must redo what the Russians had done; they repelled Napoleon, resisted Hitler. We must confront the accelerated climate change.

p/s – an advertisement has been running on the TV for quite sometimes now. I first saw it during the Michigan – Notre Dame game. It is one of the coolest ads I’ve ever seen. Make sure to beef up the volume.

Categories
Environment Politics & government

[409] Of Tony Blair on climate change

The Prime Minister, unlike most other political figures, recognizes the threat of global warming and climate change.

The 10th anniversary of His Royal Highness’ Business and the Environment Programme marks what is now recognised as the premier international forum for exploring sustainable development in the context of business.

Over the coming months we will take forward the wider sustainable development and environment agenda. Margaret Beckett is working on a comprehensive Defra 5-year programme to be released this year and a new sustainable development strategy for early next year. This will deal with, amongst other matters, issues of waste, recycling, sustainable agriculture, all aspects of biodiversity; and fishing, and will set out policies in each key area. For example, on the marine environment, I believe there are strong arguments for a new approach to managing our seas, including a new marine bill.

But tonight I want to concentrate on what I believe to be the world’s greatest environmental challenge: climate change.

More at Guardian Unlimited.

While he is at it, Hurricane Ivan is on the way and Hurricane Ivan is not the first of its kind in the last few weeks. I am not sure whether global warming has a hand on this but in The Carbon Wars, Jeremy Leggett mentioned as time progresses, more severe natural disasters are going to hit us. He also mentioned that the insurance industry is going to be struck badly. And the insurance industry is certainly feeling the heat, especially when Florida was hit by three different hurricanes in less than two weeks, a few weeks ago.

And there are still naysayers. I wonder when will they stop saying nay.

p/s – a somewhat humorous one but put in a bad taste. A real bad taste.

Categories
Politics & government

[407] Of Ralph Nader in Ann Arbor

Ralph Nader was Ann Arbor today and I skipped a class to attend it. And apparently, I was not the only one that skipped class. Ralph Nader’s speech was okay though the content is unique when compared to what Kerry or Bush would say.

Some rights reserved
Nader speaking. And goddamnit for the photo quality.

The event was held in the Ballroom in the Michigan Union at 1300 hours. Out of the ballroom, there were some people. Some were some random people handing out some random fliers. Some where Nader supporters. Some were democrats trying to dissuade people from voting for Nader.

The room was full with a number people standing at the back. I sat in the second row. Yup, it was up front but too bad it was too much to the left that I had to twist my neck a little.

Nader talked about a few things.

One concerned how American political scene is becoming a duopoly and how the democrats are trying to prevent Nader from the ballot and how the republicans refused to hold a debate with him. I share his opinion on this. It is just too bad for such thing to happen. Dilemma – face four more years of Bush or face a duopoly well into the future. I do not know which one is the worst.

He also described how the US is different from Western Europe, where welfare level of the people there are higher than the US. Though maybe it is true that social security does not seem to work while the European’s works better, I believe Europe has a much higher unemployment rate. I am not sure if it is better to be in the US or Europe with these two things happening but in my opinion, there is a certainly a trade off between being a welfare state and not being a welfare state.

The crux of his speech is probably about corporate powers. He talked about why it is important to remove corporate powers from Washington D.C. The one phrase that might sums up all of his points on corporate powers is something like this: corporations are not people; they do not vote and they should not be in D.C.; they should not influent the policies drafted in D.C. While at it, he took a swipe at Kerry for being a face for corporations. Bush also received the criticism. Halliburton was mentioned explicitly though it was in a passing style.

Later, he encouraged the students to get involve in civil discussion and stand for democracy. Among Nader, Kerry and Bush, Nader is the one that deserves to tell people to stand for democracy from my point of view. Kerry and even less with Bush, do not seem to stand for grassroot democracy as much as Ralph Nader does.

Somewhere, he criticized the notion of anyone but Bush. His exact words were “Anyone but Bush. Leave Kerry alone. Ask no question” or something like that. He said this is the right formula for defeat and why Kerry is mostly leading marginally instead of firmly. I however cannot remember why that is so but Nader did make the idea of anyone but Bush sounds hypocritical to me.

He touched a few other things but I do not remember.

After he spoke, a Q&A session was held. I, in fact, most of the students left right after Nader wrapped up his speech. I do not know the reason why the others left but I guess the reason is the same as mine – class.

And quote of the day,

Students at Michigan are blessed, except last Saturday.

– Ralph Nader with reference to the ugly game at Notre Dame

p/s – Today, officially, Bush lets the 10-year assault rifle ban to lapse. Now, it is legal to own AK-47 or any assault rifle in America. This will be a perfect natural experiment to see whether freedom to bare arm, especially when it involves assault rifle, affects crime rate. I bet it somebody will conduct a research on this and I bet the effect on crime rate will be positive.