Category: Politics & government

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ASEAN Politics & government

[624] Of East Timor and ASEAN

Should Turkey be allowed to join the European Union?

Tony Blair believes Turkey EU’s answer for the future. Austria and a few others on the other hand don’t quite relish the prospect of Turkey as Euroland’s 26th member. I wish Turkey the best but halfway around the world, how would ASEAN member states react to East Timor as the grouping’s 11th member?

Currently, ASEAN has ten members with Papua New Guinea as an observer. In 2002, East Timor expressed its intention of gaining an observer status in ASEAN. The country proves its seriousness by informing ASEAN of its willingness to sign a non-aggression pact with the grouping.

In my opinion, the country’s greatest obstacle of gaining membership is Indonesia. Indonesia is like father of the bride. If the father hates you, you’re practically screwed. Maybe not father. Maybe just the older brother.

Reason is, the more influential ASEAN members – namely Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines – have traditionally stood by the Indonesian side whenever East Timor hit the headlines in the recent past. Though Indonesian atrocity was deplorable, the four nations had to refrain themselves from criticizing Indonesia in the name of solidarity.

Fortunately for East Timor, Indonesia doesn’t seem to hold any grunge against the tiny state despite the two countries’ turbulent past. Indonesia had previously annexed East Timor in 1975. East Timor later gained independence in 2002 via an United Nations-administered referendum in 1999. With Indonesia out of the way, East Timor can rest assured that the four members and the rest of ASEAN will not object save, maybe, Myanmar.

Myanmar currently disapproves the notion of East Timor as an observer – much less a membership – due to East Timor’s support for Aung San Suu Kyi. I do think however that if East Timor could somewhat water down its explicit support of Aung San Suu Kyi, then Myanmar might retract its objection.

Regardless, East Timor has a lot of catching up to do. With respect to that, I believe ASEAN has unique role to play in East Timor’s effort to build up itself. Yet, ASEAN has done little to aid East Timor. Instead, Australia is East Timor’s most active partner. ASEAN must play a greater role in East Timor if the 10-member group wishes to see a stronger ASEAN.

p/s – I saw this on BBC’s ticker last night. I thought it’s old news but heh, all hail to the greatest theocracy the world has ever known. LOL!

pp/s – cold feet?

Minnesota last defeated the Wolverines in 1986.

“You look at that whole series and it’s kind of lopsided,” Minnesota coach Glen Mason said. “If I had it my way, I wouldn’t play them anymore. Michigan has those types of series with a lot of teams.”

Let’s hope Michigan won’t do anything too interesting. Minnesota in the past few years is that kind of team which you think they gonna lose but somehow, due to final minutes miracles, we are the winner instead.

I hope Michigan will stop that trend and win outright. The best thing is, Michigan has the psychological advantage to do that.

Well, may the best team win. (BTW, the Little Brown Jug is ours).

Categories
Politics & government

[616] Of campus election foolishness

This week, college students throughout Malaysia are polling to elect Student Representative Council members. Pro-opposition student groups allege that there are several irregularities going on however. They also claim unjust policies are being implemented by universities’ administrators to make it harder for them to participate in the election. As an act of protest, pro-opposition groups have decided to boycott the election.

A boycott could have a myriad of effects on many players. Unfortunately, the boycott is affecting the pro-opposition badly while their rivals are free and unscathed. Reason is, the boycott effectively hands over sufficient number of seats to pro-government student groups while the pro-opposition gains practically nothing.

As such, future ruling by the Student Representative Council will ignore pro-opposition’s dissenting views simply because pro-opposition won’t have noticeable voting power in the council.

If the pro-opposition groups hadn’t boycott the election, they could have a number of seats in the council. With their representatives, they could vote for an enquiry over the alleged irregularities and unfair policies. Thanks to the pro-opposition bright leadership however, such notion is harder to realize. Moreoever, their groups will become irrelevant this time around.

For the pro-opposition student groups’ leaders, c’mon, think for a sec. Do you think your opponents are losing sleep because of your boycott? Hell no! They are probably jumping joyfully while trying to lick their free fat, fat candy. Only a group of fools would disfranchise themselves and the pro-opposition groups are that fools.

As for now, I simply hope that none of the pro-opposition student groups’ leaders will lead any opposition political parties in Malaysia. If they are, then the opposition parties will have a lot of problems.

p/s – Ajax is up against Arsenal in a few hours. I hope Arsenal will get a good beating though I myself are unsure of Ajax’s recent performance.

Categories
Photography Politics & government Sports

[610] Of part of Kuala Lumpur

Every city has its own charm, including Kuala Lumpur.

I have no idea whether this shot points to north, south, east or west without looking at a map. The concept of direction in this city is meaningless. But who cares when the sky is gay, true?

Yet, the photo might suck a bit since there is this big ass glass screen in between the camera and the scenery(?).

And, wow, being highlighted by Jeff Ooi bites a lot of bandwidth. Thank goodness it happened in the middle of the month.

Still, thanks! Appreciate the traffic. But most of all, I glad I see him celebrate September 16. Hail to the Federation.

Again, no, I’m not a nationalist. I just love shouting and turn everybody’s excite switch on. To me, nationalist tends to have a closed mind but their passion is something to be admired. Nationalist, especially patriot, always move me – my mind works only after my heart stops. Maybe, that’s why I think I’m a bit brash.

Ah, the curse of being a youth.

p/s РGermans, please vote for Schr̦der. Schr̦der is green, by proxy.

pp/s – on second thought, I can determine the direction by observing the shadow on the buildings. I also know that this photo was taken after noon. So, this shot probably points anywhere between north and west.

Heh, astronomy and geography are handy. I know I used the moon for direction when I was “lost” in Sierra Nevada.

ppp/s – in New Zealand, Greens will be back in power since they have assured Labour of assistance. Labour is expected to win without majority.

p4/s – Michigan 55 – 0 East Michigan. Michigan is now 2 – 1. I’m 2 – 1 too!

Categories
Politics & government

[601] Of Sept 11 dedication

Four years ago, around this time, I woke up and was getting ready for chemistry class. On my way, vividly in my mind, I saw something so incredible that I was in a mode of disbelief. I saw tears falling down most strangers’ cheek in the land of the free and home of the brave. I suspect, none of them realized that they were crying – I know I didn’t. And for a tiniest moment then, I had thought I was an American.

But of course, Bush and his neo-con friends made me say much later, thank heavens I’m not an American.

Nevertheless, this post is dedicated to those of whom I saw cried on that day.

p/s – UK is overrated. Go to the US instead. (pst, Go Blue)

Categories
Economics Environment Politics & government

[599] Of fuel subsidy, tax reduction and Malaysian budget deficit

An awful lot of Malaysians are happy with the road tax reduction in the face of rising fuel cost. The government assures more is to come. The libertarian part of me jumps with joy. My green half however warns me that the government current policy might be unsustainable.

Fuel prices have been marching forward continuously for many months now. Give and take a jump of another USD20, crude oil price will be at an all-time high. The highest price in 2005 term is USD86 per barrel. Crude oil prices are currently around USD65 per barrel. Roughly a week ago, it was USD70 per barrel.

Consequently, all countries running gasoline subsidy are finding out that the program eats a lion’s share of their expenditure. Indonesia is a perfect example of this. Its subsidy program is so huge – a quarter of government expenditure in fact – that capitals are flowing out of Indonesia at a frightening rate. That capital outflow then forces Rupiah, the Indonesian currency, to plummet 10% against the USD this year alone. This could happen to Malaysia too and it’s crucial to reduce or even eliminate Malaysian fuel subsidy.

The Rupiah today rose after the Indonensian authority confirms that they will cut fuel subsidy further. Almost similarly, Malaysian government has allowed fuel price to increase step-wisely a few times this year. Three times if I’m not mistaken. That in effect reduces deadweight loss.

Despite so, the government has made several promises that are too bold.

First and foremost, the government promises that there will be no more price hike till the end of the year. There reason why this might be more than the goverment could chew is that there can be no guarantee how the global crude oil prices will react in the short term. The market is too susceptible to immediate events like Katrina, of which had forced the crude oil to break the USD70 benchmark. Not to mention, for the northern hemisphere, winter is looming in four months time. Given the no-hike promise, a too liberal price increase could match or even outdo the reduction in deadweight loss.

Second is the promise of more tax cuts. Bigger cuts mean lower revenue.

Combining possible fall in income from taxes with the inability to reduce expenditure, this is a formula only Republicans will endorse. It’s a recipe for budget deficit. A fall in income must be followed with a fall in expenditure if a budget is to be sustainable. Of course, economics allows greater expenditure against an inferior income but it must be noted that only in time of crisis should anybody allow that. This is where normative and positive economics diverge. On top of that, Malaysian 2004 budget deficit stands at 4.5% of its GDP. 2005 deficit is expected to stand at 3.8% of the GDP.

This is type of economics practices by Republicans – from Reagan to W. Bush – might increase the expected deficit for 2005. Our government is doing what an economic populist would do.

This might backfire soon – all the cheer might turn into jeer when the deficit swells in size.

p/s – even the World Bank is worried of climate change.

pp/s – fun flash animation. Don’t you love your SUVs?