Category: Politics & government

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Conflict & disaster Economics Liberty Politics & government

[679:448] Of negative real interest rate?

Apart from Bucking the Fuckeyes, something odd came across my mind earlier.

If Malaysian nominal interest rate currently hovers around 2.7% according to Bank Negara (Interbank interest rate), as it has been for many months now while inflation for October is around 3.2% according to Business Times, then wouldn’t that mean, according to Fisher equation, Malaysia had a negative real interest rate a few weeks ago?

Something is wrong here. Am I taking the right interest rate?

Base lending rate (BLR) however is 6%, according to Maybank while ABN Amro Malaysia offers 5.5%. If BLR is the benchmark, then it’s my mistake.

Nonetheless, if indeed Malaysia had a negative real rate just a month ago, then our current capital outflow might not entirely due to the current huge rate differential between the US dollar and the Malaysian ringgit.

p/s – dirty Republicans at work. But nothing less than an ingenious political maneuvering:

House GOP Seeks Quick Veto of Iraq Pullout

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer 4 minutes ago

WASHINGTON – House Republicans maneuvered for swift rejection Friday of any notion of immediately pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq, sparking a nasty, sometimes personal debate over the war following a Democratic lawmaker’s own call for withdrawal.

Just a day after Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record), D-Pa., stoked a surging political fire over President Bush’s Iraq policies by proposing that troops return home now, Republicans brought a measure to the House floor urging that a pullout begin immediately.

The symbolic vote was intended to fail, and furious Democrats accused the GOP of orchestrating a political stunt.

Republicans’ call for vote for an immediate withdrawal of US troop from Iraq forces Democrats into a corner with no safe way to go.

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Humor Politics & government Society

[657] Of 10 ways for PAS to secure Pengkalan Pasir

As mentioned before, I’m placing my money on UMNO to win the December 6 Pengkalan Pasir by-election. However, here’s a list of 10 ways to force odd to favor PAS. In the list:

#10. Bribe UMNO candidate. Doubt it will work? Hey, Isa Samad hasn’t been dragged to court of law yet despite his proven corruption. Instead, he’s been merely admonished by UMNO disciplinary board and suspended for a few years. Proof that most people in UMNO, even those in the high up, doesn’t mind corruption. What about Badawi’s anti-corruption drive you say? Hell, we have – given the situation, had – a tak nak rokok campaign but the Dewan Rakyat mocks it by promising players in the cigarette industry greater reward. What? Bribery is sinful you PAS people say? I somehow remember a logging concession in Kelantan. Or was it Terengganu?

#9. Send in thugs to convince voters to pick PAS. Tell all those people, tick the moon or we’ll break your bones. Of course, no bone will break and snap. It’s all merely intimidation. Macam tak biasa pulak.

#8. Declare, or rather re-declare a fatwa that implores that a vote for PAS is a ticket to heaven and a vote for UMNO is a ticket to somewhere too hot to handle. I still sometimes wonder how the hell does this work but hey, you’ll never know what makes a rightist nut ticks.

#7. Assert that Nik Aziz is more religious than Badawi and assert that Islam PAS is Islam while Islam Hadhari is bs. (caveat emptor – if the word u-turn sounds familiar, don’t attempt this. I repeat, do not attempt this.)

#6. Invite Ibrahim Ali into PAS and let him run as PAS candidate. Ibrahim Ali dreams of a chance to screw UMNO. So, given that PAS hardcores will be voting for whoever that sucks up on PAS, Ibrahim Ali’s vote will at least bring in extra precious numbers, particularly some of former UMNO’s votes. UMNO would be furious if this happen, I tell you.

#5. Or better yet, invite Mawi into PAS and let him run as PAS candidate. With Mawi, I’m sure PAS will secure all female voters’ vote. People has been talking about the Mawi factor as an asset. Hell, a good political entity would internalize that asset. Add that with PAS wackos, UMNO will be caught with defeat and disbelief.

#4. Say Buck the Fuckeyes! Well, they might not get enough votes but if I could vote in Pengkalan Pasir, I’d goddamn vote for them if they say out loud Buck the Fuckeyes. Anybody that wanna kick Buckeyes’ nut is my friend.

#3. Actually do something with the state economy and maybe even clean up that state capital of trash a bit. Declaring the state capital as an Islamic city won’t do a jack. Given how Kota Bahru looks (I haven’t been to KB for perhaps 11 years but doubt there is any change, except the name for Pantai Cinta Berahi…), it makes people smirk at the hilarity and indirectly insult Islam.

#2. Pray to god and do nothing.

And number one is, drumroll please….

#1. Pack up and leave for Pattani. PAS won’t get Pengkalan Pasir but at least they’ll win in Pattani.

Frankly however, my skepticism for PAS and my previous statement of I-don’t-care-who-will-win notwithstanding, I hope PAS will win. A PAS win may indicate that there’s some hope for a stronger opposition in the next general election. Malaysia desperately needs more dissenting voices in the Dewan Rakyat to undo the rubberstamping trend in the Parliament.

p/s – Wow. I didn’t know a Malaysian was nominated for Nobel Prize for literature. (via)

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Humor Politics & government

[655] Of PM in Lesotho while DPM in Indonesia but who’s in Malaysia?

Yesterday, Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister was in Sulawesi, Indonesia while the Prime Minister was in Lesotho. The situation remains the same today. So, one question – who was in control yesterday? How about today? Is it the speaker of the Parliament, the secretary of state or simply nobody?

Haha, PAS missed a chance to form an Islamic Republic of Kelantan. Haha, Anwar Ibrahim missed a chance to stage a coup.

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Liberty Politics & government

[650] Of hypocrisy in Malaysian policy

Ah, yes. Malaysian students should not get themselves into opposition activities but it’s alright to join the ruling party’s Kelab UMNO Minnesota or any other Kelab UMNO Luar Negara.

I received the following letters via Malaysian students’ association at my alma mater.

Not sure about the license but seems to be public domain. So, share away while it lasts!

Bah. If you are “Malayly-challenged“, here’s a rough translation:

President,
Malaysian students’ association (MSA),

Students’ involvement in activities that go against government policy

The government is seriously concerned with students’ involvement in activities sponsored by the Malaysian opposition parties, especially students that are subsidized by the government or any other government agency.

As such, student leaders must remind their respective association members not to attend such activities.

If there are students that are active in any opposition sponsored event, student leaders are requested to inform the Malaysian Student Department (MSD) at Chicago immediately.

Director,
MSD Chicago
[Stamp]

Practice caution – MSA presidents are the newly-instated moles of the ruling party. Now, you people will need to go underground. Heh.

This policy is not new. It’s just that the ruling party (aka the government) in the past few years have been rather flexible on it. This development is a signal that the ruling party is re-emphasizing the policy.

p/s – read [672] Of Anwar Ibrahim at Michigan for context.

Categories
Politics & government

[646] Of the devil PAS or the devil UMNO?

The 666th post for an entry on PAS. It truly couldn’t be any more appropriate than this.

Earlier today, Pengkalan Pasir Assemblyman Wan Abdul Aziz Wan Jaafar passed away, leaving a state assembly seat in Kelantan up for grab. This death should remind PAS what they had found out in the last Malaysian general election – PAS is in trouble. How big a trouble:

Wan Abdul Aziz contested on a PAS ticket in the last general election and beat the Barisan Nasional’s candidate, Hanafi Mamat, by a slim 55-vote majority.

He polled 7,168 against Hanafi’s 7,113.

And the bigger picture:

“The present situation is really interesting. If prior to this PAS held 24 seats and Barisan Nasional (BN) 21, now PAS has only 23 seats…Can’t say much, but its an interesting development,” he said this when met by reporters after paying his last respects to Wan Abdul Aziz at the latter’s home in Kubang Bemban, Pasir Mas.

This is also a sneak peak at PAS u-turn in trying to look more moderate. In my opinion however, this u-turn might backfire.

PAS is not alone in this u-turn and certainly no the first. While PAS is slowly trying to relabel itself as moderate Islamist party, UMNO has been doing a more-Islamic-than-PAS ever since Abdullah Ahmad Badawi became UMNO President with his Islam Hadhari. I personally think Islam Hadhari is balderdash but what’s important is, UMNO’s u-turn has been tested and it works. That’s all the matters.

PAS u-turn however is a little bit risky. By becoming more moderate, PAS may stand a chance nationally but not on state level. PAS doesn’t need to move leftward in the political spectrum in Kelantan. Reason is, the population there is already stuck in the right. Too much shifting to the left will see PAS risking disfranchising its base. Already, when PAS invited Mawi to perform in Kelantan, crack was showing within PAS ranks.

But then, I have the impression that Mawi’s concert was a sellout. This so-called Mawi-factor might be an asset instead of a liability. You’ll never know but given what I know right now, I’ll put my money on UMNO this time.

As for me, I don’t really care who will win. Whether it will be PAS or UMNO, I don’t see how it changes the dynamic in Kelantan state assembly. PAS still won’t control two thirds of the state assembly and UMNO or BN, still won’t get half of total seat. This upcoming by-election, which needs to be held within the next 60 days, is more about psychology.

Nevertheless, the next 60 days will be important for battleground Kelantan. Pengkalan Pasir by-election will serve as a signal of things to come in 2008. Or 2009.

erratum – there was an error in post numbering. This post was numbered 666 before the error was discovered. 

p/s – oh yeah, joining the bandwagon, Happy Halloween to those that celebrate it. Er, I mean, Deepavali.