The Kyoto Protocol (tag) will expire in 2012 and there is a need to continue to fight climate change even after 2012. The current Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – yeah, it’s that mouthful – plans to sustain the fight into post-Kyoto period. That plan has been dubbed as son of Kyoto.
Unfortunately, like the upcoming World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in Hong Kong, this climate change meeting is expected to fail unless a compromise is achieved. The main problem is, as it has always been for the past few years, the United States refusal to commit itself into any treaty that will put a cap on its greenhouse gases emission.
Some has insisted the parties to carry on without the US participation. That might be the most viable solution at the moment. Others on the other hand are calling for a more lenient targets to persuade to US to join in.
I definitely believe that in order to combat climate change effectively, all major emitters need to join in. That includes the US. China is the distant second largest greenhouse emitter. Tony Blair with confidence that I admire goes further by stating “there will be a binding international agreement to succeed Kyoto when the Protocol expires in 2012 that will include all major economies.”
I don’t share his optimism. In my opinion, the only way that is possible is to see a US president that will agree to Kyoto’s underlying principles. A person like John McCain or Hillary Clinton. I truly hope John McCain will make it to the White House in 2008.
Given the gloom prospect of failure, I’d be happy even with the most modest success coming out from the COP. It’d be a tragery to see a COP 10 in Buenos Aires to repeat itself in Montreal.
In the meantime, it seems that China is enjoying the moral high ground. Sometime earlier, China urged the US to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. This urging is important because it may signal that China is willing to commit itself seriously to a post-Kyoto treaty to cap its emissions. That itself is hope.
p/s – happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday to the __earthinc, happy birthday to you.
Yup. Four years of the __earthinc and still wanting to marry a tree.
