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Books, essays and others Liberty Politics & government

[827] Of emotional populism

Earlier last week, I came upon a book and if I’m not mistaken, it was Eric Temple Bell’s Men of Mathematics. In it written a story concerning an exchange between Euler and Diderot. Euler was of course that great Swiss mathematician that is still torturing students of science all over the world hundreds of years after his death. Diderot on the other hand was a French philosopher. The conversation between the two itself was about the existence of god.

As the story goes, Diderot — an atheist — was invited to Russia by Catherine the Great. Unfortunately for the Christian monarch, while in St. Petersburg of Russia, Diderot debated with many people and encouraged others to embrace atheism. Catherine the Great was annoyed with Diderot’s effort and so she summoned Euler — a Calvinist — to deal with the atheist. Euler obliged and in the royal Russian court, he came up to Diderot and said “Sir, (a+b^n)/n = x; hence God exists, answer please!

It’s alleged that Diderot was algebraic illiterate and thus, Diderot was unable to come up with a counterpoint. Petrified and embarrassed, the Frenchman left Russia immediately and Catherine was amused. If Diderot were able to read algebraic notation, he would have spotted the problem with Euler’s argument and pushed Euler into a corner instead. On whether the story is fact or fiction, that’s another issue.

The author of the book — if I’ve gotten the author and the work right — intends to illustrate the importance of mathematics. His work argues that mathematical knowledge is too important to be left in the hand of the few. Mathematical knowledge needs to be disseminated among the public for if mathematics were only known to a certain class, that class would manipulate the ignorant others.

To prove his point, he points out that the priests of the past were the experts of the skies and stars, of seasons — experts of mathematics. Before the season changed, they predicted it and then the season changed. Before eclipses occurred, they predicted it. And there in the sky, eclipses. The class was the learned one. They understood what was going on through their mathematics and they exhibited their knowledge to those that comprehended nothing. More importantly, the priests’ words affected the lives of the commoners, the public — the words of the priests had weight. As the priests developed a reputation as reliable soothsayers, the commoners came to trust the priests. The ignorant commoners became dependent of the priestly class. When the trust became unbreakable, these priests started to say things of no truth to the commoners but brought the priests’ benefits. Lies became truth and the public was unable to discern the truth from lies because they lacked the knowledge to differentiate the two.

This is a disturbing hypothesis which has been proven by history countless of times. Alas, the author was expounding on the importance of mathematics while he could have stressed on the bigger picture — knowledge on general. Whenever the masses are ignorant, the educated few will be able to manipulate the masses. This manipulation might lead to populism.

Populism by itself is not necessarily bad or good; it’s neutral. What makes populism normative is the cause of populism. The good kind of populism is the one mobilized through sound reasoning. Whenever populism is mobilized through emotion, then there’s a high probability that it’s a bad kind of populism — someone is manipulating the masses. The masses could only be manipulated if there’s a lack of education and information and a monopoly of knowledge by some fraction. In vacuum of education or information, misinformation or disinformation has powerful adverse effect on uninformed masses. Misinformed masses will then profess loyalty to the manipulative few and ignore any voice of reason. For that, emotional populism is dangerous and like what I’ve written earlier, it can hard to counter with logical thinking.

In Malay, there’s an idiom: melentur buluh biarlah dari rebungnya; tackle the issue at its root cause. One of the most effective ways to counter emotional populism is to make the masses insusceptible to manipulation and propaganda (remember Chua Soi Lek and sugar? Without education, some would fall for it). In order to so, the masses must be imbued with the ability to think for themselves. Education is the key to counter emotional populism.

If emotional populism could be eliminated and give way rational populism, then one of weaknesses of democracy could be eliminated .

Unfortunately, the expansion of human knowledge is both an achievement and a tragedy. The sum of human knowledge is so vast that it is impossible to master all areas of knowledge. Some will always know more than the others.

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Books, essays and others Photography

[819] Of Big Tree, Malay College

No real blogging since I can’t find the time to do so. So, here, another photo from the Malay College that I snapped earlier .

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

It’s fondly known as the Big Tree. Scientifically, it’s Samanea saman.In foreword written by Abdullah Ahmad in MCKK 1905 – 2005: Leadership But What’s Next? by Khasnor Johan, he wrote:

Whenever I look at the pictures of the Big School and the Big Tree, time seems to have stood still. There is always something about them; the school and tree are timeless and seem never to have grown old.

Never? Heh. Not literally.

I don’t have access to Photoshop right now since my desktop is messed up at the moment. So, I have limited ability to improve the picture digitally. That sucks in so many ways.

Categories
Books, essays and others Economics

[738] Of Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis

Last October, I brought three paperbacks. Just last week, while I was rollicking, most of the daytime anyway, by the Dungun River, I managed to finished up Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis .

scanned by Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Fair use.

It’s really a good comedy – and tragedy – about bond traders. Bonds as in economic debt of course. Despite the economic background of this real life story at Wall Street in the 90s of the 80s, one doesn’t need to know economics to appreciate the book and its humor. And it had been a long time since I laughed so hard reading a book.

There are several memorable scenes in it. This is one of them:

One trader remembers that “Lewie would say he thought the market was going up, and buy a hundred million [dollar-worth of] bonds. The market would start to go down. So Lewie would buy two billion more bonds, and of course the market would then go up. After he had driven the market up, Lewie would turn to me and say, ‘See I told you it was going up’…”

Another one:

“…Actually there was one good reason for using the charts: Everyone else did. If you believed that large sums of money were about to be invested on the basis of a chart, then, as dumb as it made you feel, it made sense to look at that chart; perhaps it would enable you to place your bet first and get in front of the coming wave. Many of our French and English speculators, however, honestly believed the charts contained the secrets of the market. They are aboriginal chartists. They would have used the charts even if no one else did. They communed with their charts as if they were Ouija boards. The charts were speaking to them.”

It maybe a typical dry economics humor but it’s funny nonetheless.

Regarding the second block quote, it is especially true about people in the stock market nowadays. A broker a couple of months back talked to me about forecasting. I looked at him and said quietly in my mind, trying to be polite, are you for real? Eh, I ended up explaining efficient market theory to him. And he wanted to sell me stocks.

Really, in economics, the best future price, given perfect information, is the price today. All those forecastings are bullshit. The only reason charting works is because laymen actually believe in those charts and then force the market to go the way the forecasters had forecasted. It’s a self-fulfilled prophecy. I still laugh at people that actually believe all the bullshits spew by so-called forecasters. Even the forecasters know its bullshit. Well, the forecasters with real economic know-how anyway. Some people may argue that information is not perfect. Yeah. True. But all know insider trading is illegal, eh?

Now, it’s time for me to get on with my reading. In my mind, there are three candidates currently.

One is Stiglitz’s The Roaring Nineties – I’ve read his Globalization and Its Discontent; yup, that Nobel Prize for economics winner; even attended his lecture at Michigan!). It has a cool cover by the way.

Two is Hujan Pagi by A. Samad Said. A. Samad Said needs no introduction in Malay literature and Hujan Pagi won, I think, the 1987/88 Malaysian literature award, or something like that. I’ve never read any proper Malay work so, I thought, if not now, when? But I’ve actually started the first page or two. I however find it hard to keep my interest alive – it was like when I first read Lord of the Rings (I must stress – before it came to the cinema, years earlier! I’m not a person that read a book because the book makes it to the movies – with the exception of , er, Star Wars. Star Wars is just different). Tough read in the first few chapters but as the story develops, well, we all know why Lord of the Rings is so successful in the cinemas.

Third is Thomas Friedman’s The World Is Flat. I’ve been wanting to read it since early last year but I kept getting myself sidetracked with other books and responsibilities.

So, we’ll see.

p/s – Mathematical art. Parental guidance is required. Sort of. Depending on point of view of course. (via)

Categories
Books, essays and others History & heritage Politics & government

[643] Of Singapore, Malaysian Malaysia and what if

About fourty years ago, in the Malaysian Parliament, in Malay, by Lee Kuan Yew:

How does the Malay in the kampong find his way out into this modernised civil society? By becoming servants of the 0.3 per cent who would have the money to hire them to clean their shoe, open their motorcar doors? … Of course there are Chinese millionaires in big cars and big houses. Is it the answer to make a few Malay millionaires with big cars and big houses? How does telling a Malay bus driver that he should support the party of his Malay director (UMNO) and the Chinese bus conductor to join another party of his Chinese director (MCA) – how does that improve the standards of the Malay bus driver and the Chinese bus conductor who are both workers in the same company?

If we delude people into believing that they are poor because there are no Malay rights or because opposition members oppose Malay rights, where are we going to end up? You let people in the kampongs believe that they are poor because we don’t speak Malay, because the government does not write in Malay, so he expects a miracle to take place in 1967 (the year Malay would become the national and sole official language). The moment we all start speaking Malay, he is going to have an uplift in the standard of living, and if doesn’t happen, what happens then?

Meanwhile, whenever there is a failure of economic, social and educational policies, you come back and say, oh, these wicked Chinese, Indian and others opposing Malay rights. They don’t oppose Malay rights. They, the Malay, have the right as Malaysian citizens to go up to the level of training and education that the more competitive societies, the non-Malay society, has produced. That is what must be done, isn’t it? Not to feed them with this obscurantist doctrine that all they have got to do is to get Malay rights for the few special Malays and their problem has been resolved. …

I’m finally done with Lee Kuan Yew’s The Singapore Story and I enjoyed it, especially the last few chapters. The book however leaves me behind a few questions. What if we had stayed true to the Federation? What if Singapore were still a Malaysian state? I can’t help but wonder, could Malaysian Malaysia be a reality today if Singapore weren’t expelled from the Federation?

I think yes.

Lee Kuan Yew’s People’s Action Party (PAP), given time and if Singapore weren’t expelled from the Federation, would have outmaneuvered the Alliance. Perhaps, given the competition, United Malays National Organization (UMNO) would have turned into United Malaysians National Organization, as Onn Jaafar had envisioned earlier.

Yet, UMNO, seeing that possibility, acted quickly and put their interest first, Malaysia’s second. They expelled Singapore instead to secure their monopoly of power.

Yes, if Singapore were still part of Malaysia, I truly believe we would have a Malaysian Malaysia by now.

Categories
Books, essays and others Economics Photography

[642] Of RM132 will get you only three paperbacks

Remember my entry about wanting to read Burgess’ Malayan Trilogy?

Immediately after posting the entry, I left my desktop and headed straight for a bookstore at the base of Petronas Twin Towers to look for it. The books weren’t in store however and I was rather disappointed that I couldn’t find it. Right now, the internet and some obscure second-hand bookstores in Kuala Lumpur are my best bet.

However, instead of getting the trilogy, I went on a minor spending spree, spending, quite unbelievable, RM132 on three paperbacks – Burgess’ The Wanting Seed, Lewis’ Liar’s Poker and Stiglitz’s (I attended his lecture back in Michigan! w00t!) The Roaring Nineties – while I had only brought RM50 with me. Given the situation, I was forced to use my debit card.

On debit card, might I add that Malaysia really needs to upgrade its financial system, urgently. I don’t know how it’s like in Thailand or Singapore but the US is far, far up there and it makes me feels that all the economics I learned at Michigan is part of an elaborate science-fiction. No kidding.

Anyway, I used to remember that imported paperback on average cost merely RM25 back in the early 1990s. After 1997, it cost around RM30 each and now, on average, it’s RM40++.

I wasn’t familiar with Malaysian pricing at first and you could imagine that I was in shock. But then, after I silently converted MYR into USD in my mind, the prices didn’t seem to be too outrageous. In fact, this case actually almost conforms to Law of One Price. After realizing that, that shock turned into a sigh.

Still, I couldn’t quite believe that three paperbacks cost me more than a hundred buck.

After the disappointment and the shock that became a sigh, I strolled from the Twin Towers towards Jalan Ampang. To my delight, there are patches of green here and there right before the interception of Jalan Ampang and Jalan Yap Kwan Seng (I think).

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

At least, I don’t have to pay to enjoy a bit of green amidst Kuala Lumpur’s smog.

When I saw the fire hydrant in the middle of a green patch, I became attracted to it at once. The contrast is just remarkable, at least to my untrained eyes. And before you keep wondering why I never keep the object of interest in the middle of the photo, suffice to say that I prefer non-conventional style, whatever that’s supposed to mean.