Category: Conflict & disaster

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Conflict & disaster Economics Environment

[641] Of Malaysian poultry market and bird flu

Bird flu () has now reached Europe. Less than 72 hours ago, British authority has confirmed that the parrot that died in quarantine was infected by the same bird flu that is affecting many birds in a number of countries. Closer to home, another person dies in Indonesia due to the flu. Thailand also has another confirmed death less than 24 hours ago. Malaysia () on the other hand has yet to report any death notwithstanding an earlier quarantine and culling of poultry carried out near the Malaysian-Thai border.

The thing is, in Malaysia, people are preparing for two major celebrations – Eid ul-Fitr and Deepavali. This pushes demand for poultry and chicken up and hence, the high price. What I find surprising however is that, in the light for an expected flu pandemic, prices have yet to fall. At my place near Keramat, Kuala Lumpur, prices are stuck at its ceiling, RM6 per kilogram; a dollar is currently about 3.77 ringgit. Eggs on the other hand are sold at about 26 sen (not cent!) each; I’m unaware of its ceiling though.

The ceilings are set nationwide by the Malaysian Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs. Some states like Sabah and Sawarak may have different ceilings. Some kind of implicit agreement between traders to not undercut each other is also apparent. However, that’s another story which I’m uninterested this time and unable to talk further given that I don’t know costs faced by chicken traders.

Back to the issue at hand, I’d expect consumers to scale back demand and hence forcing traders to lower their prices. Reason is, consumers should be worried with development surrounding bird flu worldwide and more importantly, regionally. And when consumers have certain concerns on bird flu, they’d be a bit conservative in chicken consumption. Yet, prices haven’t budged by one bit due to bird flu.

I can only think three reasons why prices have gone down yet.

One, the people have full confidence in the government. The Malaysian government has so far done a good job regarding bird flu. They were fast and decisive in that case in the state of Kelantan and this builds up credibility. Even more so when SARS and Nipah virus were successfully handled with aid from the US CDC.

Reason number two is ignorance. Ignorance, as some would say, is bliss. Some people, as unbelievable as it may seem, just couldn’t be bothered to read. Some even can’t differentiate SARS from bird flu and I suspect, many others don’t even know what the hell H5N1 is.

The third is the couldn’t care less attitude. I bet that this is the most probable case for most locals. If this is actually the case, who could blame them. Despite all the developments and the consumption level, Malaysia has yet to encounter a human case unlike Indonesia and Thailand.

Regardless, it would be very interesting to see how price and demand for chicken and other domestic fowls will react in the next few months or even years. If prices are still persistent at ceilings after a full outbreak occurs, Malaysia poises to become a few millions fewer. Needless to say, bad for the labor market but hey, who cares for the labor market, right?

p/s – read this Scientific American’s article on bird flu while you sit quietly at a corner, waiting to ride this expected pandemic out.

pp/s – just found out that there is a Bird Flu Monitor blog.

Categories
ASEAN Conflict & disaster

[637] Of ASEAN and foreign powers

While I was scouring the internet for the latest development on a possible new bridge to link Malaysia and Singapore together, I came across an Asia Times’ article that touches on India’s ambition in the Andaman Sea. I find the article a tad disturbing and it changes my perspective towards Malaysian and ASEAN’s defense and security. This might be a knee-jerk reaction but it convinces me of the need for Malaysia and ASEAN to strengthen its military forces.

The article highlights Indian motivation of establishing a major naval base near the Andaman Sea, a body of water located at the northern mouth of Strait of Malacca. Among the main reasons for such move are increasing Chinese influence in Myanmar, piracy in Straits of Malacca and trade. Concurrently, these three factors more or less concern ASEAN and Malaysia.

The author of the article states that China is controlling several ports in Myanmar and Chinese influence in the Andaman Sea is extraordinary considering the area is actually part of the Indian Ocean instead of the Pacific. Slowly, it seems that Myanmar is becoming a Chinse forward base. This is even more so when China and Myanmar agree to have better land links between themselves. This grants China access to the Indian Ocean.

In event of a confrontation between People’s Republic of China and Republic of China, the conflict might even affect Malaysia and ASEAN disproportionately badly. This is because if the conflict escalates to a stage that includes more than one large power, trade might be severely affected since China will be able to flex its muscle in both the South China Sea and the Andaman Sea. Both seas are important gateways to ASEAN.

Even if the fear of China controlling both seas is unfounded, piracy and the threat of terrorism by themselves should be enough to convince Malaysia to have a stronger military. Already Malaysia and Indonesia have been criticized for security lax in the Strait of Malacca and this has attracted eyes towards the region. Other than the United States that has been rebuffed by both Malaysia and Indonesia, India too is quietly observing the situation in the strait. The article further states that it seems that the US has given its “tacit approval of India’s assertion of naval control over the Andaman Sea”. All these might be steps taken to implicitly tackle piracy and terrorism.

If piracy and terrorism are indeed the case for the renewed militaristic attention on Southeast Asia, it would be wise for Malaysia and its neighbors to quickly build up their naval prowess. Stronger naval capabilities may bring about greater security and less piracy. More importantly, it would take away a reason for foreign military attention on Southeast Asia.

A Malaysian military buildup might invoke a Southeast Asian arms race. The last time such a thing seriously happened was back in the 1990s when Malaysia added a fleet of jet fighters and frigates under its command. If I remember correctly, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand themselves found themselves in the sedated fray.

In my opinion, an arms race might be the one thing ASEAN needs right now. An arms race will bring a net benefit to ASEAN members by discouraging any foreign power from exercising excessive influence on ASEAN borders.

Categories
Conflict & disaster

[623] Of Ramadan Fool’s Day

Earlier today, according to AFP, at least 11 embassies in Malaysia received suspicious packages.

The packages — which also contained compact discs and an unidentified liquid — were aimed at taking advantage of the security situation after the bomb attacks on the Indonesian island of Bali, police said.

Five missions — the United States, Russia, Britain, France and Australia — received packages on Wednesday bringing the number of missions hit by the scare to at least 11, Kuala Lumpur police chief Mustafa Abdullah told AFP.

“You have been infected with a biochemical weapon. Curse you for what you have done to the Muslim ummah,” the note in each letter said, according to the police chief.

The Star of Malaysia has a local version of it.

Usually during April Fool’s Day, some of my overzealous colleagues would remind me that April Fool’s is a western, more precisely Christian’s invention and the act of celebrating it could be considered as a sin. Well, it seems that our overzealous friends have found how to celebrate April Fool’s without collecting sins!

Wait, yesterday was not Ramadan. It was in fact Sha’aban. Maybe, it should be known as Sha’aban Fool’s Day.

Whatever.

Categories
Conflict & disaster Sports

[621] Of Liverpool vs. Chelsea: October drama

The match will start in a few minutes. I expect drama.

I also watched Arsenal – Birmingham match earlier and I must say, I am disappointed with the result; Arsenal won 1 – 0 and it was due to an unfortunate own goal. Birmingham deserved a point based on Taylor’s performance and the fact that they were down to ten men but still managed to keep Arsenal struggled.

God curses van Persie, Arsenal and Feyenoord.

Anyway, yeah, opera in Anfield!

p/s – halftime! 2 – 1 in Chelsea’s favor. Didier Drogba’s assist that led the Damien Duff’s goal is so cool that it’s hot.

pp/s – full time. 4 – 1. Liverpool players are going to get an earful of Benitez. And hands down. Didier Drogba is my man of the match. The first three goals were made possible by him. Also, Chelsea is fast becoming Rangers of England – they are dominating the English Premier League. Full point from eight matches while the nearest competitor, Charlton nine points behind with a game in hand.

ppp/s – should have mentioned this earlier but better late than never.

Imagine there’s no countries,
It isnt hard to do,
Nothing to kill or die for,
No religion too,
Imagine all the people
living life in peace…

– John Lennon (1940 – 1980)

Dedicated to people of Bali and everyone else that was there when it happened.

Categories
Conflict & disaster

[613] Of Malaysian porous border

Have you ever wondered why there are so many illegal foreign workers here in Malaysia? I’d imagine the most common answer is porous border. Now, how porous our borders are?

Well, the Malaysian-Singaporean border is very, very porous. Technically, you need to present some kind of identification to enter Malaysia – most of the times, it’s passport. In reality, there, you really don’t need any ID. Just cross the border at the immigration center; Malaysian immigration officers won’t mind.

At least, that was what I experienced. I’m not sure how widespread it is but I certainly hope that this is an isolated issue. My friend however told me that this happens all the time.

At the border, I spent approximately an hour negotiating red tapes – not too bad considering the amount of people there.

The Singaporean half was kind of easy. Choose which counter(s) is (are) for Malaysians, line up, go to an immigration officer, make sure to get your passport stamped and then you’re on your way to Johor, of which, the last time I checked, was still part of Malaysia. Johor’s restroom state convinces me that Johor is in fact a Malaysian state.

On the Malaysian half, it was, surprisingly, much more, goddamned, easier. Notice the number of superlative adjectives. Look out for counter with the longest line, cut through some non-existence lines, rumble through pass an opening of what seems to be a set of five electronic counters – four were closed by the way while three immigration officers were having a chat that concerned something apparently more important than national security – and then you are free to chew your bubble gum. Nope. No need to stamp or scan your passport.

Given that, I can’t help but wonder why all those aliens are trying very hard to get pass Malaysian navy in order to be in Malaysia illegally. There are, maybe, two ways of trying; trying hard or trying smart.

Here’s a tip to all that plan to enter Malaysia easily and illegally. Get a tourist visa from Singapore, cross the causeway, slip pass the Malaysian immigration officers while they are busy talking about nonsense and – voila! – Welcome to Malaysia.

Seriously though, our security down there is lagging badly. Wait. Lagging is the wrong word. Lacking should be very descriptive. The people in the immigration are being paid for doing practically nothing.