Category: Kitchen sink

Categories
Kitchen sink Politics & government

[422] Of Screenshots and a conspiracy theory

Some time last week, Jeff Ooi, one of Malaysia’s foremost blogger, got into trouble. He was not the source of the turmoil but rather, the source was an unsavory comment left on one of Screenshots’ entry, Jeff Ooi’s blog that, as some would say, degraded Islam.

A pro-government national paper caught up the news and sent a pretty calm crowd to indulge in a massive session of duckspeak. Shortly afterward, somebody in Ministry of Internal Security said that the Internal Security Act (ISA), an act that essentially allows detention without trial, could be utilized against the author of Screenshots for instigating racial harmony. While this happened, support for Screenshots was mounting from the blogosphere. Some of the support came as far as the other end of the planet. The famed Slashdot posted something on this too. Reason is, if ISA were used, the freedom of speech is being threatened yet for another day. More importantly, if a blogger is going to be arrested under ISA, it would be an unprecedented move in suppression of free speech. Well, not unprecedented. China has done that.

Luckily, the hoo-ha died out but, I notice something else.

Take note that, all the while this all happened, Screenshots was and still is rallying for a fundraising effort. In particular, observe at the figure of the fund. The fund was first officially announced by Screenshots on September 27th this year. The intention was probably first brought up on September 21st or earlier. Now, bear with me while I puke out the boring details.

Around the same day that the comment that caused the uproar was made, which was September 30 — of which I believe the water was still as calm as Lake Tahoe — the fund stood at RM818.68. A day later, the fund grew almost 100%; to be precise it was at RM1570.96.

Screenshots usually receives a lot of visitors per day by some standard. I would say the average, discounting the absolute maximum was around 3500 visitors. This rough estimate could be easily obtained from Screenshots.

Two days later, the fund stood RM0.69 short of RM2000.00. On the same day, the number of visitors was significantly different from the Screenshots’ average of visitors for about 30 days. It was approximately 9000 visitors though I don’t know whether that 9000 represents 9000 unique people. From my experience, the counter that Screenshots is using doesn’t differentiate the same IP after some period of time. However, assuming that the 9000 visitors are indeed unique and on average, there are 3500 unique visitors, with the difference from the average and the actual visitor on each of those 30 days is less than 1000, 9000 is absolutely big and unusual. Screenshots refers to that 9000 as abnormal traffic. More data here.

On October 2nd, Screenshots was brought to national attention. With this, it is sensible for anybody to expect a spike in the number of visitors and this definitely explains, as a statistician would say, the error in the statistical model, if a statistical model were to be constructed. On the normal curve, that abnormal traffic figure will be at the very end of one tail (well, not really at the end of the tail for the mathematics junkies but you get the idea. The t-test is huge.).

Then the fund lingered at RM4181.61, another 100% increase. Looking back in time, that is a 400% increase from September 30.

According to Screenshots on September 5th, the number of visitors was greater on September 5th than the day before. As of today, the fund grew by about 50% to RM6779.37.

Now, there is a relationship with the number of visitors and the number of fund though my professor always asserts correlation is not causation. But if a statistical model were to be constructed, I strongly believe there will be a strong positive correlation between the two variables. More importantly, I don’t think anybody needs any lesson in econometrics to realize good marketing brings large customers and large customers translate to large sale. In this case, large contribution.

Now, consider a conspiracy theory.

Let’s say Jeff Ooi knows this. Also, let’s say Jeff Ooi has a friend at Jalan Riong (the location where the national paper resides in the real world. You see that something outside the window? That’s the real world. And no, not MS Windows you bastard, the window!), of which I am sure he does; a little bird at the very least.

Now, let’s think. Does it make sense for a national paper to care so much for the blog that, that particular national paper ran an article concerning that blog on the front page?

Rayden would say, I don’t think so. Well, it is possible for a blog to get onto a national paper, as proven by Instapundit. Instapundit got onto the New York Times but it was hardly in the front page. I mean c’mon, front page? Don’t you have any other f-news? If Harakah did it, it’s understandable but Berita Harian? Dude, you need to uphold some of your reputation! (I’m not saying that Berian Harian has a lot of reputation to start with.)

A part of my want to say, some little bird at Jalan Riong wants to help Screenshots’ fundraising effort. So, a little publicity doesn’t hurt, especially when the firm at Jalan Riong is one of the most influential (despite being excessively biased) media in Malaysia.

Either that or the people at Jalan Riong hate Screenshots so much that they really are trying hard to pin Jeff Ooi down to the ground, which seems to be apparently true and would probably explains the front page. Pure hatred is strong enough a reason to verify the front page.

If latter is true, then the plan is backfiring. Instead of pinning Screenshots to the ground, it only helped the fundraising effort by at most 720% increase from RM818.68.

Oh, well, met my academic advisor yesterday. She asked me whether I have anything after graduation or not. I said not yet. She then said, if you want, you could take a class in the B-School next semester. Sounds like a good plan for me. Maybe I could even convince my parents to sponsor me into B-School. But in any case, if I still can’t find anything, I’ll stay in school for one more semester. Graduating in December is boring anyway. It’s too cold and too early to graduate.

And yeah, the last time Minnesota met Michigan, Minnesota faced a rheumatic arrest after seeing Michigan rallying from a loss to a win in the fourth quarter. Tomorrow, Minnesota (ranked #13, one rung above Michigan) will get a heart attack immediately in the first quarter.

Go Blue baby!

p/s – I meant cardiac arrest, not rheumatic arrest.

Categories
Kitchen sink Politics & government

[243] Of strive for ideals is the purpose of life

All of us need to have an ideal. It doesn’t matter what it is as long as it is something because ideal is an objective for our life. Life is like a mission and a mission needs an objective. Without it, a mission is useless and so does life.

Irespect a person with ideal. I see an idealist as someone that believes in something rather than wandering pointlessly while doing nothing other than life’s mediocre chores. A person without an ideal is a person without a goal.

An ideal is something that pushes us towards a particular direction. May it for better or for worse, sooner or later and even if we fail to reach the goal, deep in our soul, we could, later in life rest comfortably knowing that at least we did something. Again, for those without one, I can only wonder what do they really care other than the typical and trivial matter of life.

To believe in an ideal is to try to bring the ideal to life. It is true that believing and practicing are two totally different stories but yet, we need to try as hard as we could to practice it. In practicing it, in few times, we will need to go against our ideal. This is acceptable because sometimes, an ideal is simply an ideal; parts of the ideal are impractical. This is one of the dilemmas the Greens are facing. The Greens prefer a world without pollution. In spite of this, they realize the fact that development cannot be stopped. In order to solve the dilemma, they made a compromise with their own ideal and took a middle path – sustainable growth.

An idealist should be broad-minded and willing to listen to others. The worst kind of idealist is a fanatic and this breed is no better than an idealess person. This species of extremists pulls the curtain and close their window to the world outside, refusing to see what others have in store. At the same time, they force the world to bow to their will. It is hopeless when someone tries to influence other while he or she is bigoted to a view. Worse than an idealess, a bigot is a selfish closed-minded rodent.

Stooping as low as a bigot, a rebel without a cause is another miserable being. There is nothing bad about being a rebel but in being one, ideal must closely follows behind. Without it, a rebel is simply a worthless but dangerous anarchist. This is the main reason why I hated the so-called reformasi movement back in Malaysia. Their goal was simply to free Anwar Ibrahim and no more; their reformation fell short of that, lacking substance and all. At the same time, many reformasi supporters called for a change but never giving out an alternative to the current system. For this, they deserve no attention.

Fortunately for the movement, somebody with a sane mind gave life to it and subsequently, after a period of maturity, the post-reformasi movement has changed their goal from merely freeing the former Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister to creating a freer society. If it were not for the idealist, the reformasi movement would surely be dead by now.

p/s – It’s sad to see even Saudi Arabia can no longer be considered safe. A few hours ago, Riyadh suffered a second bombing in less than twelve months. I just wish somebody would nuke the whole Mideast. Half of the world problem would then be solved easily.

Categories
Economics Environment Future Kitchen sink Liberty Sci-fi Society

[199] Of if I ruled the world…

If everything in this world rested on me, I will make sure that the world will be a greener place to live in. All of my policies will be based on three of the Green Four Pillars – okologisch (ecological sound), sozial (social stability) and basisdemokratisch (democratic society).

The economy will not be based simply on capitalism. There are more to life than just capitals. Though free trade is important, certain things will be given some leeway, of such as subsidies so important industries to the green ideology may flourish for the benefit of the whole. Taxes and tariffs will still play an important role in a laissez faire market.

The most important thing that will be made compulsory is the pollution market. Each firm will have its own amount of pollution allowed to be produced. Of course, the amount of pollution it is entitled to will vary according to its size and sector. In this way, the firm will be allowed to do whatever it wants with the permit as long as the activity is within the boundary of the law. Furthermore, the firm will need to pay for each extra ton of pollution it makes as a fine. The amount fine will be large enough as to offset the violating firm profit. In this, it is hoped that the fine will be a sufficient deterrent without hurting the industry greatly.

The only way to produce more products is to obtain pollution permit first. However, it cannot obtain such permit directly from the government but rather, it needs to buy the extra privilege from other firm that uses only partially of their share. Despite this, the government still has the ability to issue such permit as it deems necessary for a sustainable economic growth of a particular sector and not of a particular firm. It is important to state that the permit transaction between firms will still be needed to be approved by the government. In a way, this is similar to the coupon system when in the market, both monetary and coupon units are used for transaction activities. Through this, carbon based economy or rather green economy will be born.

The government on the other hand distributes the permits that in turn given by a world body that regulates the permit circulation internationally. Each country will receive a particular amount of permit after that particular country’s industry, population, resources and area size are considered. A world body, perhaps a neo-WTO will be given the power to make sure that the carbon trading will run smoothly on the international level.

Reward and punishment philosophy will be upheld in order to convince countries to accept this economy. Economic sanction will be imposed on countries that commit serious environmental breach. Most common sanction will be the withdrawal of pollution permits. The heaviest penalty would be an economic isolation on all sorts of goods save essential such as food and medicine. However, environmental violation does not include environmental accidents though inaction may lead to moderate punishment. Through this, it is hoped that pollution problem will be reduced significantly.

Furthermore, developed countries will be demanded to commit a small portion of its income, if it could be afforded, to contribute to global organizations such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN to fight hunger and poverty. The contributors will be rewarded with extra pollution permits at a discounted price.

Income originated from the sale of pollution permits will be used as near free aids to the third world nations. The aid however will be given as long as the receiver commits itself to green economy. At the first sign of diversion from green economy, the receiver will need to repay the aid in full plus backdated interest.

Politically, countries’ traditional borders will be preserved due to cultural difference but within countries, a new kind of political lines will emerge – the ecoregions. Ecoregions are, as stated in Wikipedia, area that has strong ecological connection to other area. These areas will be considered as one political unit. As a simple example, Southeast Asia will be considered as one ecoregion due to its vegetation similarity throughout the region. In introducing new political border, it is hoped that problem such as polluted river or burning forest will be able to be fought effectively. Though this seems to be difficult and annoying redistribution, such method has already been carried among the great lakes states such as Michigan, Illinois and Ontario (3 of the 11 members of the Great Lakes Commission) in order to manage the administrative matters concerning the great lakes. Note that this caucus crosses the US-Canada border.

Free will and democracy will be paramount in governance though it will not be as free as the libertarians would like. Minimal restrictions will be applied in order to maintain social order. Then again, freedom of expression will be observed to almost the fullest extend.
Socially, recycling will be the way of life. To make it a reality, Californian styled system will be practiced. Recyclable consumer products (i.e. cans, bottle etc.) will be sold a little bit higher than its market price. The additional cents will be returned to the buyer once the post-consumer product is returned back to any recycling center. Of course, the price of recyclable product will be lower than any non-recyclable counterpart so as to encourage consumer to buy recyclable product.

Population will be redistributed to various areas so one area will not have too dense with Humans. Also, population control will be enforced through. By doing this, not only could the government prevent overstraining the ecosystem but the social standard including the health system could also be maintained with high standard. Draconian population control however will not be allowed in the constitution because of the observance ofhuman rights.

The opening of new lands will be minimized. Land will only be allowed to be opened for essential activities when it is needed. Land opening for holiday resort, golf course and such will be made difficult if not impossible. Also, to reduce environmental impact due to development, tight Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) will be made compulsory to every project without exception.

Transportation also plays an important role in pollution control. To combat pollution, public transportation will be the main method of moving around and the vehicles ownership will be discouraged by the introduction of special tariffs and taxes. Regular public transportation users (including carpoolers) will be rewarded with various schemes such as privilege in government and privately controlled services. In addition, car manufacturers will be needed to meet high environmental standard (engine efficiency and such) before their products are allowed to hit the street.

Area on land and in the water (the Amazon, Great Coral Reef etc.) that are recognized as essential to biodiversity will be preserved aggressively. No development will be tolerated in the area and violation will be met to the fullest extend of the law.

The Earth will be given time to adapt to us and repair herself. We as Humans will not only give the Earth time, we will also be proactive in repairing her. In this, the hope of a peaceful coexistence between Humans, other biotics, abiotics and Gaia will come to reality.

Categories
Kitchen sink

[196] Of Lithium ran and died

He ran as fast as he could, as fast as his legs would allow him to go. Yet, the assassin was catching up fast. His lung and his muscles could no longer supply the ability he needed to sustain his current pace. Yet, he continued on for his life and for many others.

Soon, while running and grasping for air, he failed to notice the uneven earth. His right foot took a bit longer to reach the ground than he had anticipated but that bit of time was enough to make him kiss the dirt. For a split second, the pain in the lung was forgotten. It was as if, the pain was transferred from his lung to his face. He was puzzled but soon realized that he had fell and his nose was wet with blood.

He got up slowly but carelessly on his feet, trying to run again. However, it was already too late. The assassin was already merely 10 meters away from him with a gun trained at his heart.

“That is my least vulnerable part” he said to the other guy.

“Casablanca is my favorite”.

“I know.”

He held his breath and suddenly sprinted away from the hunter. Behind him, he could hear the bullet missed him by a sheer centimeter and hit a tree. Already exhausted but with no choice, he ran and ran until he could no longer run anymore.

Lithium pressed his back against the huge tree trunk, trying to think what to do next. He was breathing hard and tried to slow it down to a quieter level.

It came down to a few options. The first was to continue on running with the disc. He preferred this option as it was the only way to preserve himself. However, he knew only too well that we could no longer outrun his pursuer. The next viable choice was to destroy the disc into pieces and scratch its surface. However, all those intelligence works would be for nothing. The terrible secret would never be made known to the public and the devil, Chiron would be able to live his life without the punishment that he deserved. The last option, hide the disc among the bushes and hope others, especially Wrath and Tao would find it somehow.

And so, he stood up straight, turned his back and faced the tree that he had leaned against. He searched the tree and its surrounding and saw a few meters to its right, a tree stump with a small hole. Quickly, he reached inside his jacket for the disc case. The case was damaged, no doubt during his unexpected fall earlier. Fortunately, the disc itself was undamaged.

With an eye looking for any sign of his assassin, he quietly placed the case into the hole and made a simple sign that only a handful guild members could recognize. Once done, we quickly left the place and ran.

Finally, lactic acid took over his muscles and no longer could he run. It wasn’t long before he saw the assassin face again.

“Where is the disc?” asked the assassin.

“What disc?”

It took just a moment after his last word before the man with the gun kicked Lithium’s face. This time, Lithium lost his front tooth and blood was all over his face.

“Where is the disc, thief?” the assassin asked again.

“Try the yellow pages.”

And a shot was made.

A few minutes later, Wrath made it to the scene.

“He is dead”, Wolf told his partner.

“Why did you shoot him?”

“He knows me”.

“He knew you”, Wrath corrected Wolf.

“Yeah, he’s dead.”

Categories
Economics Kitchen sink

[176] Of taking things for granted

While I was reviewing for my macroeconomics exam up in the Graduate Library’s sixth floor, I found something that is so ironic. The Law of Demand, one the fundamental basics of free market economy is based on the Slutsky Equation. The equation was derived by Eugen Slutsky, a Russian economist who lived during Lenin’s reign. Back then, Russian, known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, the only entity that managed to turn the modern world into a safer bipolar order.

C.C.C.P. or better known to the non-Russ speaking people as U.S.S.R. was a communist. Yes, it was but a world with protons and no electrons make life very difficult indeed. Proton is fun but with no electron, there will be no cathode ray tube, meaning I won’t be able to enjoy giving a n00b teammate a headshot with my shotgun at pointblank. w00+! l33+ rules.

The world is certainly a strange place to live in.

Let’s do this again.

While I was returning to my friend’s place from the Graduate Library political section up in the very quiet, an almost white noise audible sixth floor, after sleeping a total of two hours inside a carrel instead of revising macroeconomics for a full 5 hours, I grasped something.

In our life, we perceived many things for granted. In fact, I dare say that most of the thing in our life, from the basic necessity such as water or family members, we assume that these things will be with us forever. Despite knowing that these things would one day be lost, we still consider it as “unlimited resources”.

I myself used to take things for granted. Frankly, even right now, although realizing the reality, I still take some things for granted. But unlike some people, or should I say unlike most people, I realized it.

My idiotic perception, being taking-things-for-grantedism crumbled when I was about 19. I was sleeping and was about to awake from a sweet slumber. The sun rose and heated up part of my room. Slowly, the heat started to annoy me and thus, I decided to wake up. So I opened my eyes and observe the same old room, always the same, always never changing. Whilst I was contemplating on whether waking up was worth it, I tried to move my right hand from the part. Oddly, nothing happened – no movement by the hand. Imagine, you tried to move your one of your body parts, and nothing happened. At first, I thought something heavy like a hard covered Physics book fell and rested on my hand. I made a few more tries until I finally realized my right arm couldn’t be move anymore!
How rude was I awakened, facing the possibility of losing a hand to absolute no reason. My thought was full of terror. Worse, it was my right hand, the hand that I used to feed myself, to write, to type and to do countless other things.

I sat up on my bed and touched the dead hand. It was cold and it certainly reinforced my fear. My right hand had every other human’s feature but the sense of touch. My left hand picked its counterpart up and released it from the highest possible point and sadly, it fell downward, as fast as the gravity. Later, I tried every other thing in hope that I could control the other arm again.

It took me quite awhile to absorb reality. I almost shed tear knowing that I’ve lost an arm.

Despair was the only thing in my mind until I felt that my right arm’s fingers were actually moving. Suddenly, I felt Prometheus in my right arm flesh and soon, my arm was mine again to do as I please. My joy overfilled my heart and shoved despair away from my thought.

I was thankful to have my hand again and ending this entry with a cliche, from that moment on that I stopped taking things for granted.

This cliche has a far reaching consequence. Not only do I cherish every moment for the existence of my organs and all, I starts to sympathies for others shortcoming. I had a rather indifferent feeling on the incapables back then.

Most important of all, perhaps it started the green spark in me. I’ve stopped wasting water and electricity when I don’t need it. I’ve started to save and conserve almost everything. I’ve started to see the reason behind the concept of three green arrows making a 360 degree vector. I’ve begun to stop using paper towel needlessly. Perhaps, maybe this cliches, the lesson in life, usually, the kind of manuscript an elementary school kids would write was the seed to my belief in environmentalism.

I later found out that the hand was numbed due to lack of blood circulation.

On personal note, University of Michigan offers major in Economics, concentrating in Green Economics. Sassy. And on July first, I’ll be heading to Yosemite National Park in California for hiking for a full ten days. I hope the journey from Detroit to Yosemite will be via Los Angeles and San Francisco. w00t!

Sorry Tod, I guess the deal to Florida is off. I rather hug a red sequoia than a naked chick. Wait a minute, what am I doing? For the love of God, it’s naked chicks.

Before ending this entry, I would like to share a joke. I am a male so I can’t help being a little bit chauvinist.

“Recently scientists revealed that beer contains small traces of female hormones. To prove their theory, the scientists fed 100 men 12 pints of beer and observed that 100% of them gained weight, talked excessively without making sense, became emotional, couldn’t drive, couldn’t think, and refused to apologize when wrong. No further testing is planned…”

-tobp.com

p/s – The new design is in and the code implementation will be done soon. By soon, I mean snail mail’s soon.

p/p/s – change of plan. Since the ticket is getting pretty expensive, I’m rerouting my route from via Los Angeles to via San Francisco. My initial budget was near USD500 but after rearrangement, the budget when down to USD400 level. Sounds a lot but I am sure my mother will inject something into my account later. Anyway, with all the money in the account, I think I could afford it without even feeling the pain.