Categories
Education

[2452] PAGE is statistically wrong

The Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE) is a group known for its strong support for the teaching of science and mathematics in English in Malaysian public schools (the PPSMI policy). Its chairperson Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim argues the serial improvement seen throughout the years of PPSMI is a proof of success. They argue that that improvement is due to the policy.[1]

I am unconvinced that that is the case because such statistics is so raw in its presentation that it does not control for other factors.

How would we know if that improvement was not secular? Students’ achievements have been improving over the years even before PPSMI. It will be wrong to attribute all of those achievements to PPSMI. That factor as well as others should be removed before any reasonable conjecture could be made between PPSMI and achievements that the exams supposedly measured.

After that, how would we know what fraction of the improvement (or indeed even decline given that we only see net result) was due to PPSMI?

Even if all of those are accounted for, these improvements within the interested period are small enough that they are probably within the series’ standard error. In other words, the improvement could simply be some random variation with the mean essentially unchanged.

Consider the following graph I have pulled out from Noor Azimah and PAGE’s defense of PPSMI.

Take the science rural figures. The mean throughout the years is 90.6. The 68% confidence interval is between 88.9 and 92.3. Observe how many data points are within that band. The 95% confidence interval is between 87.2 and 94.1. Remember, this is before secular trend that has nothing to do with languages is taken out.

So, serial improvement as shown by PAGE through various graphs reproduced in Noor Azimah’s write-up does not really answer these questions.

To conclusive answer the questions, one has to compare two parallels, i.e. compare two series — one for PPSMI and another the status quo — concurrently. This will control for many things like grade inflation, secular improvement due to merely better education facility and access and the difficulties of the exam. After controlling all of these things, only then language will be the only factor being tested.

These two series do not exist side by side unfortunately.

The problem with Noor Azimah and PAGE’s argument is that they are comparing something that exists against something that does not and goes on to conclude that one that exists is better statistically. That is intellectual dishonesty.

The fact is there is no statistics to make the relevant comparison possible. Hence, there is no fact to make PAGE’s conclusion possible.

And, lest pro-PPSMI cheer, this is a double-edge sword. The statistics does not say anything about the alternative Malay-policy either.

That is the point however. The statistics does not say anything. PAGE however sees an elephant in the clouds.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — GMP (Gabungan Mansuhkan PPSMI), led by PAS members is pushing the Government to stand firm on abolishing PPSMI (The teaching and learning of Science and Mathematics in English) yet again, and claiming that only 3% of pupils benefited from PPSMI.

Evidence to support the continuance or abolishment of PPSMI, should be based on the achievements in UPSR, PMR and SPM. That should be the benchmark. The test results of these three national examinations, proved to be very encouraging, clearly supporting the continuance of PPSMI while contradicting all statements that have been brought against PPSMI. [Noor Azimah Abdul Rahim. Pro-English group hits back: Don’t twist the facts for “political expediency”. Malaysia Chronicle. October 29 2011]

Categories
Economics Education Politics & government

[2440] Opposing double deduction for scholarship abroad

The government intends to give corporations double deduction for sponsoring students. While it is great to encourage the private sector to give out scholarships to students so that there are fewer reasons for government to do so, I think the double deduction is a bad idea. There two reasons.

First, I am with the idea that the government is spending too much money on sending undergraduates abroad. When the destination countries are developed countries like United States and the United Kingdom, the scholarship program as a whole will be awfully expensive. If you are to attend the University of Michigan as a government-sponsored student in a typical 4-year undergraduate program for instance, the tuition alone can surpass half a million ringgit, just like that.[1]

Of course, Michigan is not your typical university and there are of course cheaper universities out there in the US but most of those cheaper universities do not bring value to public money when there are better alternatives closer to home. You do not want to pay half a million ringgit to send something to a school like, oh, I don’t know, Ohio State University maybe?

Okay, that is uncalled for but you get my drift. OSU is a good university, only that Michigan is way better, in every single way. Including, thank the heavens, in football too!

I prefer the government to use the money on improving the local tertiary education instead. Money of course can only do so much. There are other factors like freedom on campus (Malaysian public universities seriously lack this) to develop a free inquiry culture but money does matter.

There are exceptions to my opposition to public scholarship to abroad, but these exceptions are so small that even putting them up while drastically reducing the program will free up tons of money for other uses. In the double deduction policy, since awards for places abroad is costlier than local spots, companies have the incentives to send students abroad, at taxpayers’ expense.

Secondly, the double deduction reduces government tax revenue only to do what the government is doing in the first place. It is only fee-shifting or paper-shifting so to speak. It does not matter who spends it because in the end, it will use taxpayer money. If the number of awards—for local and overseas spots—stays the same, then this policy will only increase the cost, explicitly or implicitly, of maintaining the policy, explicitly or implicitly. When the result is the same, why do it convolutedly? Such an accounting trick will add more cost than necessary to the government.

If the government is reducing scholarship award, then the money will flow out anyway before it gets in. It will show lower revenue and lower spending and then, maybe, smaller government. That is only because of that accounting trick. Like all accounting tricks, it is superficial.

At the very least, I think the double deduction should come with a caveat: only for sponsorships at local schools. If anybody wants to send somebody abroad, they should use their own money entirely.

Or otherwise, maybe just reduce corporate and service tax altogether so that this problem with double deduction would not be a problem to start with. That would truly be more substantial than that particular 2012 budget provision.

Or yet another or-case, the government should only give out less than 100% deduction while reducing the number of public scholarship awards to abroad.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedMohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
[1] — [Office of the Registrar. Full Term Tuition & Fees. University of Michigan. Accessed October 9 2011]

Categories
Books & printed materials Education Fiction

[2421] Yet that was what they did to their children

He thought of all the living species that train their young in the art of survival, the cats who teach their kitten to hunt, the birds who spend such strident effort on teaching their fledglings to fly—yet man, whose tool of survival is the mind, does not merely fail to teach a child to think, but devotes the child’s education to the purpose of destroying his brain, of  convincing him that thought is futile and evil, before he has started to think.

From the first catch-phrases flung at a child to the last, it is like a series of shocks to freeze his motor, to undercut the power of his consciousness. “Don’t ask so many questions, children should be seen and not heard!”—”Who are you to think? It’s so, because I say so!”—”Don’t argue, obey!”—”Don’t try to understand, believe!”—”Don’t struggle, compromise!”—”Your heart is more important than your mind!”—”Who are you to know? Your parents know best!”—”Who are you to know? The bureaucrats know best!”—”Who are you to object? All values are relative!”—”Who are you to want to escape a thug’s bullet? That’s only a personal prejudice!”

Men would shudder, he thought, if they saw a mother bird plucking the feathers from the wings of her young, then pushing him out of the nest to struggle for survival—yet that was what they did to their children. [Atlas Shrugged. Part 3. Chapter VI: The Concerto of Deliverance. Ayn Rand. 1957]

Categories
Education Society

[2318] Increasing the appeal of national schools by reducing the role of religion

Prejudice against any group depends on generalization for it to take root successfully in one’s mind.

Although I have to admit that sometimes there are voices in my head whispering ethnic prejudice and stereotype, I typically find it hard to harbor such sentiment for long. I have friends of ethnicities different from mine. If I succumbed to such prejudice, I must necessarily think badly of them. I appreciate my friends and thinking badly of them disturbs me.

I take comfort that I know many of them do not fit into prejudicial descriptions that exist out there. I know my friends violate such prejudicial generalization, hence falsifying it. This forms my first barrier against such prejudice.

I am only one person, whose preference and experience are not necessarily shared by others. Yet, I do think the idea that a person’s familiarity with individuals of different ethnicity acting as a contradictory force to prejudicial generalization can be extrapolated to others’ thinking. The idea encourages one to evaluate a person based on his or her action or words instead on others’ who share the person’s ethnicity.

This is why I support any platform encouraging interaction between individuals of different ethnic backgrounds. This is why I support the national school system and frown upon any system contributing to ethnic segregation, despite the shortcomings of the national schools, and despite my appreciation for choices within the Malaysian education system.

While tuning in my blue iPod to the BBC in London recently, I caught David Cameron announcing that multiculturalism has failed. He lamented the policy of passive tolerance that has caused individuals to segregate themselves according to their ethnic background. From far, British society is multicultural but a closer look may justify Cameron’s concern.

Although the situation in Britain is different from that in Malaysia, there are communities in Malaysia that segregate willingly.

The education system in general does not help in breaking this trend. The Malays mostly go to national schools, which are Malay or Muslim-dominated. The trend repeats itself in the vernacular streams.

There are exceptions. Some national schools are diverse, especially those that are well-endowed and located in urban areas. Some vernacular schools are diverse as well. It is worth stressing again that these are exceptions, however. There are simply not enough children from different ethnicities learning in the same classroom when one assesses a majority of these schools individually. This limits the opportunity for interaction.

There are many reasons why that trend prevails in the national schools. I will not go into all of them. I intend to highlight only one of them in hope of bringing focus. Others can highlight other factors if they wish to do so.

Religion, specifically Islam, plays too much of a role in the national schools. That erodes the idea that the national schools are national, hence inclusive. When one religion appears to dominate, the idea of inclusivity bows down to exclusivity. The dominance may cause parents with other religious beliefs — as well as those without belief — distrust in the national schools being able to provide their children with the necessary education without instilling Islamic belief.

Worse, the heavy presence of Islam in the system creates the perception that non-Muslims are second-class citizens. This is best demonstrated when Islamic prayers are said during school assemblies. While students of other beliefs are encouraged to pray in their own way when the Islamic prayers are said, the practice does say a lot about which religion takes the foremost position.

Another example is the segregation that happens during Islamic lessons. Non-Muslims typically are asked to shift to a different class where they are expected to go for moral studies while Muslim students stay in the same class. That happened during my time as a student in a national school.

While the practice more than anything else is a matter of convenience — most students are Muslims — it does create the perception that, again, Islam is the religion of the national school and other religions do not deserve attention. Still, the ultimate reason they were segregated is that one group is labeled by the state as Muslim and the other as, well, others.

The perception is dangerous because children learn something about inequality. The greater danger is that these students may accept the lesson as simply the way things are in Malaysia, when such inequality should be fought instead of condoned.

There are other more sinister examples. One includes an incident several months back when a student was caned because he brought pork for lunch to school. Islam prohibits Muslims from consuming pork and that wrongly guided the action of the responsible school official to cane the non-Muslim student. The wider implication is that the example suggests that non-Muslim students should follow Islamic teachings. This links back to the issue of trust mentioned earlier.

The perception that non-Muslims are second-class citizens is not something non-Muslim parents would want or should let their children accept. Malaysia belongs to all Malaysians. Religion should not matter.

If attendance at the national schools encourages acceptance of inequality by these young students, then non-Muslim parents who believe in equality have a reason — likely another reason out of many — not to enroll their children in the national schools. This ultimately hurts the national schools’ function as an unofficial social integrator within Malaysian society.

One solution is to separate religion from schools. The national schools should be made blind to religion in a way that religion stays only within the necessary lesson. Religion should not be included during school functions and not in science classes, but only in religious classes.

The separation can remove the apprehension non-Muslim parents have about the national schools with respect to religious belief, hence making the system more appealing to non-Muslim parents. Muslim parents meanwhile can continue to be assured that their children will learn about Islam during Islamic lessons, if they wish their children to learn it.

Perhaps as part of larger liberal values, all students should be allowed to choose what they wish to learn, regardless of their religious beliefs in the spirit of free inquiry. This also includes the arts and the sciences. No longer will students be segregated during lessons based on religious beliefs but they will be separated based on their interests and curiosity.

Hopefully, after making national schools neutral of religion, we will be a step closer to becoming an inclusive national system to encourage interaction, where individuals of one ethnicity befriend those of another to acquire the idea that his or her friend contradicts many of the prejudicial generalizations that exist out there.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

First published in The Malaysian Insider on February 16 2011.

Categories
Economics Education

[2283] Of my issues with introductory macroeconomics

Although normatively one should not judge a book by its cover, positively, first impression matters. The first few lessons in economics are likely to affect a person’s perspective on the roles of government. Those who are familiar with economics and who ended up skeptical with the concept of activist government have to suffer those first lessons that suggest increased government spending in the economy is good.

Introductory macroeconomics at the undergraduate level typically presents the Keynesian consensus quite forcefully. Students tend to spend considerable amount of time studying the mechanics of simple IS-LM. The simplified model, while useful as a primer and for the cultivation of understanding in the workings of the economy, tends to overemphasize the effectiveness of government spending in the economy. In the jargons of macroeconomics for example, increase (decrease) in government spending positively (negatively) shifts the IS curve to increase (decrease) aggregate demand that eventually increases (decreases) economy-wide output, given all else the same.

Other complications do get introduced to shake that ceteris paribus assumption by a bit like the crowding out effect of higher interest rate on other components of the GDP and the dynamic of monetary policy. Here, for the first time, macroeconomics cautions students that sometimes, the effect of change in government spending can be ambiguous.

Add more complications and only then, government spending can be bad. Unfortunately, by adding more and more complications, the pedagogic value becomes marginal, making it wise for teachers of introductory macroeconomics to stop at the level where the lesson of the semester suggests that government spending is largely favorable.

By the time simple complications such as monetary policy are introduced, the perception that government is almighty will already have been ingrained in students. Consider the Keynesian multiplier. Students will learn this concept early, well before greater realism appears in the picture. Specifically, it is the idea that an increase in government spending has amplifying impact on total output, never mind that the rate of the multiplier itself is controversial.

My biggest grip has always been the silence regarding government finance. Increased government spending has to be funded. This concern is only answered at the later stage of introductory course, where Ricardian equivalence is finally mentioned. When it is mentioned however, it sounds like a minor curiosity only.

Given the bias, it is a miracle how anybody could finish undergraduate economics and become skeptical of government spending being the panache to short-term economic fluctuation.