Category: Society

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Economics Politics & government Society

[2982] Insufficient law enforcement as a symptom of fiscal pressures

Rules and regulations would become non-credible if it is unenforced enough. Smoking ban at eateries. Running the red light. Private vehicles on bus lanes. Illegal parking by the roads. We all have seen these cases frequently that violations are expected to be the norm.

In frustration, a person recently publicly tweeted Health Minister Dzulkefly Ahmad to complain about zero enforcement of the smoking ban. The Minister replied that the Ministry indeed enforced the bans and shared some statistics of people caught violating the rules. He shared that more than 96,000 citations were given, and 42,000 alone were linked to violations at eateries. So, technically, the Minister is right. There has been a non-zero enforcement. Yet, a non-zero is not sufficient.[1]

After all, what is the percentage of 42,000 caught violators to total violations?

The actual answer might be difficult to get to without a proper survey. But we can run a guesstimate. One 2018 paper suggests there were 5 million smokers in Malaysia.[2] Let us assume several things:

  • The 2024 figure is the same as suggested by the paper.
  • 1% of the 5 million are regular violators.
  • These 1% visit a restaurant (mamak) at least once a month (12 times a year).
  • They violate the smoking ban during every visit.
  • There is no corruption.

If we agree these are reasonable assumptions (these assumptions all in all are very conservative, except maybe the no-corruption part), then the 42,000 citations (caught violations) would represent only 7% of total assumed violations (caught and uncaught). The 7% figure suggests a low rate of enforcement. The revealed preference suggests that if the 7% figure is right, then it is below the rate necessary to make the law credible.

But even if we reject these assumptions and reject that 7% guesstimate, there is also revealed preference at work here: the fact that violations keep happening suggests the actual ratio must be very low that many continue to ignore the regulation brazenly.

These smokers ignore the ban because they do not believe they would get caught. And if they do get caught at all, the cost they would suffer is low. This is true not for just the smoking violations, but other things as well.

The laws themselves are meaningless if people do not believe in it. It is the act of enforcing enough that make people believe certain laws are credible.

But enforcement is expensive. Enforcement has been funded and here is where there is a link between insufficient enforcement and the fiscal pressures the government faces. To put it differently, resources are scarce enough that funding has to be prioritized and not enough has been channeled to boost the ratio of citations/total violations.

I take this as yet another symptom of the government being underfunded, and a case of needing to raise taxation level in Malaysia from its current low levels.

Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedHafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedHafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — Hi & Thanks Paul @paultantk Lest you missed these..lm attaching it here for you et al to peruse..for your ‘zero enforcement’ n ‘completely toothless’ law. [Dzulkefly Ahmad. X. Accessed March 31 2024]

[2] — Approximately 5 million Malaysian adults (22.8%), aged 15 years and over, were current smokers. The prevalence of current smokers was significantly higher in males (43.0, 95%CI: 42.0-44.6) compared to females (1.4%, 95%CI: 1.0-1.8), as a whole and across all socio-demographic groups. The Chinese (14.2%, 95%CI: 12.7-15.9) and Indians (16.5%, 95%CI: 13.9-19.4) had a significantly lower prevalence of smoking compared to other ethnic groups. Adults aged 25- 44 years (28.3%, 95%CI: 26.9-29.8) reported the highest prevalence of smoking, but those with tertiary educational attainment (14.9%, 95%CI: 13.5-16.3) and those with an income level at the lowest (16.5%, 95%CI: 14.6-18.6) or highest (19.3%, 95%CI: 17.7- 21.1) quintile had significantly lower prevalence of smokers. On the other hand, the smoking prevalence was significantly higher among the self-employed workers (35.4%, 95%CI: 33.2-37.6) and those who worked in the private sector (31.7%, 95%CI: 29.8-33.6), compared to government servants, retirees and homemakers [Prevalence and factors associated with smoking among adults in Malaysia: Findings from the National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS) 2015. National Center for Biotechnology Information. National Library of Medicine. Accessed March 31 2024]

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Politics & government Society

[2975] Do not blame Muda by too much

Ralph Nader was a popular figure in some of the progressive parts of America. He gave speeches in Ann Arbor several times when I lived there, and once ahead of the 2004 presidential election, he had to defend himself from vote-splitting accusation. In 2000, Al Gore lost the presidential election to George Bush with the narrowest of margin, with the Naders’ Greens won substantial votes as the third party candidate. Given that Nader and the Democrats’ bases overlapped, it was easy for bitter Democrats to claim that Nader took votes away from Al Gore, and paved the way for Bush’s presidency. Nader defended himself by saying that if he did not put himself on the ballot, those who had voted him would likely have not gone out to vote anyway.

I see Pakatan Harapan supporters blaming Muda for vote-splitting, and for easing Perikatan Nasional’s advances in Selangor. For a number of seats PH lost, the loss margin was smaller than the votes Muda won, even as Muda lost all of their deposits.

And it is easy to dislike Muda this time around. The episode in Bukit Gasing was Muda’s act of self-sabotage. Their asset declaration exercise was less than truthful, and so, to me, insulting. More than several candidates were nothing more than rich kids with little understanding of society or policy. Their campaign messages were jumbled up badly, confusing local, state and national policies all at once. I came out of the 2 weeks campaigning period from a position of neutral-to-mild skepticism near the beginning, to that of a dismissal by voting day. The latest set of candidates undid some good work earlier ones like Lim Wei Jiet have done.

Yes, it is easy to dislike Muda but Nader’s defense applies here.

The low turnout suggests PH bases were uninspired this time around. PH’s pandering to the deep conservatives on the far side is one possible reason for these people not to go out and vote. And there are people, who voted for PH the last round, openly said their would vote for a third choice as a sign of protest.

So, if there was no Muda, it is hard to say whether those Muda votes would have gone to PH or BN.

But more than that, for every vote Muda got, there were more PH voters who did not go out and vote. Blaming Muda is an excuse to ignore the much bigger point: PH base is dissatisfied. PH is committing the same mistake PH 2018-2020 did: trying to get the votes they could never get on the far side of the spectrum, at the expense of the middle voters and PH bases. And these voters protested and did not bother to go out.

This dissatisfaction has to be addressed.

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Books, essays and others Politics & government Society

[2958] Reviewing We Are Marching Now

I try to read (and finish) at least a book a month. That is a slow, given there are hundreds of titles in my to-be-read list. So long is the list, that I have stopped updating them altogether, realizing keeping track of my appetite is a futile exercise. But when We Are Marching Now by Danny Lim came out, I put it right into the list and bought it when the author launched his book at Central Market in downtown Kuala Lumpur. I paused my current read—Bill Hayton’s The South China Sea, which is about the history of China’s territorial claim in the area—and started going through my latest purchase.

I enjoyed the book. It was an easy read.

While reading it, I struggled to think of similar books published in Malaysia. By similar, I mean a book in the style of investigative journalism. There is Billion Dollar Whale but that is not a Malaysian publication, though it is about the country. While I have not read it, Money Logging by Lukas Straumann is another. I have not read too many investigative genre myself. My last read before Billion Dollar Whale was Bob Woodward’s The Agenda about the Clinton administration.

I might be wrong, but it does look like We Are Marching Now is one of its kind, as far as Malaysian publication is concerned. If not, then it has to be a very rare breed at the very least. That makes it refreshing within the context of local publication.

As for the topic of the book itself, I have a short remark: the book is about the genesis of Bersih, understood through various interviews the author had with personalities involved in the early days of the organization. I think the author did a good job weaving the interviews together to form a coherent narrative.

Additionally—others have mentioned this—it is worth highlighting that political parties played a crucial role in making Bersih a success.

I think this is an important point to be remembered by civil activists who value non-partisanship above everything else. It is not easy to gain public support and then corral it towards a cause. More often than not, political parties excel at that, more than anyone else. Yes, party politics are messy and self-interested. Events in the past two or more years have been nothing but angering. But when it is done right, these parties could be a powerful force for good, as in the case of Bersih.

I have been to all of the Bersih protests, and here, I want to leave you with, possibly, the favorite of mine, out of thousands I snapped from those protests:

By Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved. Creative Commons. By attribution.

Categories
Personal Politics & government Society

[2956] Why does sending Najib to prison feel so empty so soon?

As an 18-year-old a lifetime ago, I thought Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia was the end of it. The ending. Not quite death of course, but the emphasis placed on the national examination was so great that it felt like a be-all and end-all. A terminal. Yes, there was life afterward, but that exam determined everything. Do well, and you would get to go to a good school (if you are really lucky, then you would get to go to a really great school across oceans) with some kind of scholarship. Do badly, you would be destined to mediocrity.

I did well, but I quickly learned SPM was not the last station. I went to a good school with scholarship and all, but it was not smooth sailing. University life was hard, even as I was privileged to have experienced it. I learned I was wrong, and I learned something new: life is a series of challenges. A celebration might be appropriate for surmounting each challenge, but there will always be another barrier, sooner or later.

I learned it the physical way when I unwisely went on a major hiking trip to Yosemite during my junior year. Ill-prepared, I came down the Tuolumne Canyon, all the way down to the river at the bottom to soak my feet in cool flowing mountain water. It was a long canyon 20, 30, 40 miles in length, with rugged terrain, high cliff on both sides, and the Milky Way bright up in the sky. No artificial light, no vehicle, no phone reception. The destination was upriver. Each climb to a local peak only revealed a steeper trail beyond. It was a cascade of falls that seemed to never end. If ever I entertained of idea of suicide seriously, it was there. I wanted to give up and jump down. The fatigue was too much. It felt hopeless. But somehow, I made it, with assistance of two strangers near the very top. After a hearty meal, I zoomed to Los Angeles and returned to Ann Arbor to spend my summer more banally by waking up late and play computer games all the time, inter-spaced with anime-watching and soccer games, while waiting download of large files to complete.

The jailing of Najib Razak feels a little bit like SPM, or one of those falls in that Tuolumne cascade. It was a journey of roughly 10 years, which, a huge chunk of it spent in despair and hopelessness. My little part in the whole saga seemed meaningless. The 2018 election came, and there was euphoria, but hopes were dashed soon enough. It was a miracle Najib was found guilty four years later, and his appeal dismissed. And let us not kid ourselves, he could have escaped his deserved fate if he had pushed the political button harder. Government fell twice, partly because of Najib, and Zahid, who were desperate to outsmart the system.

But the day after, life feels empty. There is a slight hopefulness, but that is it. I take it as a reminder that life is a series of cascades. A series of challenges.

The system works this time, but only because we worked to make it work, and then be let to work. There are too many times when the system has been made to succumb to corruption. Never forget that. Institutions are not automatic machines. It has to be manned (and womanned?) by good people. And Najib still has his avenues to escape his punishment.

And it is not just him who is corrupt. His collaborators are still out there, corrupting our society still.

The long struggle is the reason why, the victory yesterday, feels hollow so soon. There is still a long way to go, mountains to scale.

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Politics & government Society

[2953] In Kampung Baru issue, PH supporters need to develop greater capacity for empathy

The expected eviction of some Kampung Baru residents by a private company during the administration of a Umno-led government has more than some Pakatan Harapan supporters feeling a little bit smug. Schadenfreude is aplenty. The residents are targets of that smugness.

This is the wrong.

Nevertheless, it is easy to understand the cause of those feelings RM1,000 per square foot offer was made on a willing buyer-willing selling basis, with a cash portion, as part of a plan to redevelop Kampung Baru comprehensively. It was not a perfect plan, but it was a plan. Many residents rejected the offer and many had legitimate reasons to do so.

But many too rejected it because they bought argument brought by Umno and Barisan Nasional’s politicians. Umno, Najib Razak especially, pushed for a ridiculous rate of RM3,000 per square foot deal. Ismail Sabri Yaakob, then leader of the opposition, also had commented on the issue to encourage residents to say no.

Roughly two years after the fall of PH government, Umno is back in power with Ismail sitting in the Prime Minister’s office. And here is where the incongruity happens.

Based on news reports from The Malaysian Insight and Malaysiakini, the private company is offering those whose properties have been taken over RM400 cash per square foot as compensation. This is approximately 3 times lower than the 2021-2022 market rate of RM1,500 per square foot. In addition, each household would be given the option to purchase a newly developed property there at discounted rates.

The numbers might change, but what will not is the sense of betrayal experienced by residents, and observed by third parties. There is no RM3,000 per square foot to be seen. Worse, eviction notice has been served regardless whether a resident agrees with the takeover term.

While it is tempting for PH supporters to hold that grin, and pontificate the residents on chances lost, and the betrayal the residents suffered, that is a self-defeating position to take.

PH needs those very residents’ support to win an election. But the way things are going, those residents will not be encouraged switch their political leanings. And if they are PH supporters in the first place, then the smugness will drive them away.

One has to remember, this is Titiwangsa, a seat PH won in 2018 but lost to political betrayal. That shared experienced of becoming victims of betrayal should enhance our capacity to be sympathetic to each other. But no. We prefer to say, “we told you so” instead.

PH supporters need to develop a larger capacity for empathy. Not just with respect to the Kampung Baru eviction, but also on other national issues. Build bridges instead of widening the chasms.

Again, this is Titiwangsa, a Malay majority seat in Kuala Lumpur. The way things are set up, if you cannot win urban Malays, you likely will not return to Putrajaya. Without empathy, you can wait for 10 years, and still not win federal power.