Categories
Economics

[1826] Of the stock market offers minimum risk?

In his speech unveiling a RM7 billion economic stimulus in the Parliament, the Finance Minister Najib Razak touched on the earlier injection of RM5 billion into ValueCap (translated):

In stimulating the capital market, I announced an additional RM5 billion fund for ValueCap for the purpose of purchasing equities of companies which are priced lowly due to uncertainty in the global equity market but yet exhibit strong fundamentals. The fund will be secured through a loan from the government-guaranteed Employees’ Provident Funds (EPF). Therefore, the loan not only guarantees higher returns vis-a-vis deposit rate offered by banks but it also poses the least risk to the EPF.[1]

Firstly, in the current climate it is hard to believe that the secondary equity market is able to provide better returns in the short run compared to even the dull fixed deposit account. In the long run, maybe but with the stated goal of stimulating the local capital market, surely the investment horizon is short.

Secondly, the equity market is not the least risky options available. In fact, it is probably one of the riskiest there are out there due to its inherent uncertainty. It is hard to imagine why the stock market with erratic prices would be less risky than a fixed deposit which offers stable income stream. Furthermore, if the EPF is interested in investing the least risky field with local context, it should consider investing in risk-free government bonds.

The second point on riskiness as said by the Finance Minister could either be an outright lie or a very, very ill-advised statement.

In any case, the intention behind the injection is suspect, especially, as reported by The Malaysian Insider, ValueCap is due to repay its RM5 billion loan to its three shareholders, Khazanah, the EPF and PNB.[2] Information at hand at the moment suggests that the RM5 billion would be used to pay back those lenders; it appears that the EPF would be the one financing the repayment.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — Untuk merangsang aktiviti pasaran modal, saya telah mengumumkan penambahan dana Valuecap sebanyak 5 bilion ringgit untuk pembelian ekuiti syarikat-syarikat yang mempunyai asas yang kukuh tetapi nilai pasaran mereka kini terjejas berikutan kesan pergolakan pasaran ekuiti global. Dana tambahan ini akan diperolehi melalui pinjaman daripada Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP) yang dijamin oleh Kerajaan. Oleh itu, pinjaman ini bukan sahaja menjamin pulangan yang lebih tinggi daripada kadar deposit institusi perbankan, tetapi juga merupakan pelaburan yang mempunyai risiko yang paling minimum kepada KWSP. [Economic package unveiled (Updated with full text). The Star. November 4 2008]

[2] — KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 3 — State investment company Valuecap Sdn Bhd owes its three shareholders RM5.1 billion, which is due to be repaid in February 2009.

This debt, in the form of interest-bearing unsecured bonds, raises questions over plans for the Employees Provident Fund to lend RM5 billion to Valuecap to invest in the stock market.

In March 2003, Valuecap borrowed RM5.1 billion from shareholders Khazanah, Kumpulan Wang Amanah Pencen and Permodalan Nasional Bhd to invest in the stock market. At the time, world stock markets were bracing for a looming war in Iraq which followed on the September 2001 attacks on the US.

Valuecap’s bonds were due to be repaid in February 2006, but the company was given another three years to this coming February. At the end of 2006, the three shareholders each held RM1.7 billion in these bonds, according to documents obtained by The Malaysian Insider. [Question marks over Valuecap debt . The Malaysian Insider. November 3 2008]

Categories
Economics

[1822] Of a golf course is the future of Penang!

Apart from busy adding more languages on road signs and jockeying to change road names, apparently the Penang state government is attracting foreign investors to invest in a very important project: a golf course.

PENANG, Nov 1 – Penang has welcomed a South Korean conglomerate commitment to build a US$100 million (RM360 million) golf course in Batu Kawan despite the global economic gloom, saying it is a testimony of Korean confidence in the island state’s future under the new government.

The project by DK ENC, which has built golf courses in South Korea and also one in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, will be completed in 2013 and is the most expensive in Penang. DK ENC signed an agreement for the golf course with the Penang Development Corporation (PDC) during Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng’s visit to Seoul on Thursday.

“This project will not only give an opportunity for Koreans to indulge in their love for golf but also offer employment and business opportunities for Penangites,” Lim said in a press statement issued this afternoon.

He said the golf project also showed that Korean investors believe in the new government’s commitment to transforming Penang into an international city. [Penang gets RM360 million Korean golf course. The Malaysian Insider. November 1 2008.

I like it how the Chief Minister of Penang said “This project will not only give an opportunity for Koreans to indulge in their love for golf but also offer employment and business opportunities for Penangites“.

It sounds so shallow that is almost humorous. What kind of employment is that sir? Caddies?

Does Penang need another golf course anyway?

Categories
Economics

[1821] Of Minister Shahrir suggested elimination of fuel subsidy

According to Bernama:

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 31 (Bernama) — Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Minister Datuk Shahrir Abdul Samad today suggested the government removed the 30 sen subsidy on fuel prices if the pump price goes below RM1.92 a litre. [Govt Should Remove 30 Sen Subsidy On Fuel Prices, Says Shahrir. Bernama. October 31 2008]

Four days ago, I suggested a similar move with the similar mechanism, i.e. removal of subsidy when the market prices fall below the current subsidized retail prices. I shamelessly quote myself:

With global crude oil prices having more than halved since it peaked at about USD150 per barrel just months ago, this is definitely one of those rare opportunities to make a permanent structural change to our economy by effectively eliminating the fuel subsidy for once and for all.

[…]

With decreasing subsidy quantum, the government could just maintain the current prices until the quantum of subsidy becomes zero. This happens when market prices equalize with the current subsidized prices. In doing so, elimination of subsidy does not require a hike in retail prices. When that happens, the government could immediately float it.

This strategy significantly reduces political opposition to the idea of subsidy removal. I suspect what was protested in the past was prices hike, not subsidy removal per se. [Of the best time to kill off the fuel subsidy. The __earthinc October 27 2008]

I also wrote in the same entry:

Unfortunately, there is little chance for this little maneuvering to see daylight. The government has already hinted for further reduction of RM0.15 by the end of this month. [Of the best time to kill off the fuel subsidy. The __earthinc October 27 2008]

I would like to take that back. There is a chance after all if the dear Minister pursues the matter with tack.

Categories
Economics Humor

[1818] Of tautology of the day

Prediction is hard, especially about the future. [Slippery slope. Free Exchange. October 28 2008]

Shall we predict the past?

But here is something less tautologous by Myron Scholes (via):

Economic theory suggests that financial innovation must lead to failures. And, in particular, since successful innovations are hard to predict, the infrastructure necessary to support innovation needs to lag the innovations themselves, which increases the probability that controls will be insufficient at times to prevent breakdowns in governance mechanisms. Failures, however, do not lead to the conclusion that re-regulation will succeed in stemming future failures. Or that society will be better off with fewer freedoms. Although governments are able to regulate organisational forms, they are unable to regulate the services provided by competing entities, many yet to be born. Organisational forms change with financial innovations. Although functions of finance remain static and are similar in Africa, Asia, Europe and the United States, their provision is dynamic as entities attempt to profit by providing services at lower cost and greater benefit than competing alternatives.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1817] Of the best time to kill off the fuel subsidy

With global crude oil prices having more than halved since it peaked at about USD150 per barrel just months ago, this is definitely one of those rare opportunities to make a permanent structural change to our economy by effectively eliminating the fuel subsidy for once and for all.

The growth rate of subsidy size at the current prices must be relatively small compared to months ago. Back in June, Malaysians saw retail prices for gasoline jumped by approximately 40%. Since then, somewhat in tandem with falling global prices of crude oil, the Malaysian government has decided to significantly reduce the retail prices though we have yet to see the levels seen prior to the hike in June.

Why does the current environment offer the best time to execute this?

With decreasing subsidy quantum, the government could just maintain the current prices until the quantum of subsidy becomes zero. This happens when market prices equalize with the current subsidized prices. In doing so, elimination of subsidy does not require a hike in retail prices. When that happens, the government could immediately float it.

This strategy significantly reduces political opposition to the idea of subsidy removal. I suspect what was protested in the past was prices hike, not subsidy removal per se.

So, this is the political sustainability required for economic sustainability.

Unfortunately, there is little chance for this little maneuvering to see daylight. The government has already hinted for further reduction of RM0.15 by the end of this month.[1]

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — JOHOR BARU, MALAYSIA: The petrol price may fall by up to 15 sen when it is reviewed at the end of the month. [Petrol cheaper by 15 sen?. Satiman Jamin. New Straits Times. October 26 2008]