Categories
Economics

[2803] Troubling tales from Uber drivers

Unlike cabbies whose occupation is mostly driving (save for the minority), most Uber drivers drive part-time. I have had engineers, civil servants, doctorate students and advertising people as my Uber driver.

That occupational diversity makes conversation during an Uber ride much more interesting than that during a typical taxi journey. I have heard fascinating tidbits across industries as Uber transports me around Kuala Lumpur. This makes Uber a gold mine for economic anecdotes, giving colour and warmth to hard cold data.

These conversations have turned depressing lately.

The economy is going through a rough patch and official data tells you just as much. No citing of how well Malaysia ranks in the WEF Global Competitiveness Index — an index that does not measure economic cycles — can overcome concerns over the economy at the moment.

We are not in a recession but recession as a concept can be a statistical abstract. I would suppose in personal terms, you are in a recession if you lose your job and then struggle to meet your financial obligations. It is within this context my Uber conversations took place.

The worst stories almost always come from oil and gas professionals. With low petroleum prices and spending cuts by Petronas, the whole Malaysian oil and gas sector is in a recession of their own.

This has led one geologist to drive Uber. He used to spend months at sea and all around the world on lucrative contracts looking for oil and gas for big companies. But he has not been out of Kuala Lumpur for a while now. There is no new contract to sign. Nobody is exploring anymore.

Petroleum professionals like him are used to big pay and those in the industry did appear to be among the best paid compared to the rest. And this geologist in particular was used to big spending. He bought a property in a good neighbourhood along with a car last year through bank borrowings. Then, the repayment seemed insignificant.

But the times are changing. With no job on the horizon and no money coming in, his personal finances are not in a great shape currently. He is not alone. ”My friends are trying to rent out their places. They did not need the money before but now every cent counts,” he insisted.

I fear what this portends. These are highly qualified and well-paid members of the middle class. Upper middle class perhaps but they are now at risk of losing that status.

There has always been somebody struggling with their finances even during good times. But the idea a person with a fine education such as the geologist could fall so far down so rudely because of something out of his control made me shrink in my seat as he drove me towards my destination.

There might be some comfort the petroleum industry employs just a small segment of the Malaysian labour force.

Yet, it is not the only one in trouble. Retail is not doing well too. It is unclear if the tough time there is temporarily caused by the GST or due to something bigger and more lasting. Meanwhile, euphemisms like downsizing, voluntary separation scheme and ”having to let you go” are making its rounds in the banking sector.

Another sector I have had anecdotes to share is advertising.

One person running a small production house told me he drove Uber because there were fewer and fewer advertising jobs available for grabs these days. ”In tough times,” he said when the lights were red, ”businesses would cut advertising spending first. It is the easiest thing to do for them.” Indeed advertising expenditure has fared badly so far, contracting 9 per cent in the first eight months this year compared to 2014.

Before we parted ways, he joked driving was his full-time job now judging by the hours he spent on the road instead of at the desk doing creative work.

I only hope these are mere anecdotes.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
First published in The Malay Mail on October 29 2015.

Categories
Books, essays and others Economics Humor

[2801] Insurance and moral hazard in Ankh-Morpork

They jogged on through the crowd of frightened people leaving the area, while the wizard took great mouthfuls of cool dawn air. Something was puzzling him.

“I’m sure all the candles went out,” he said. “So how did the Drum catch fire?”

“I don’t know,” moaned Twoflower. “It’s terrible, Rincewind. We were getting along so well, too.”

Rincewind stopped in astonishment, so that another refugee cannoned into him and spun away with an oath.

“Getting on?”

“Yes, a great bunch of fellows, I thought — language was a bit of a problem, but they were so keen for me to join their party, they just wouldn’t take no for an answer — really friendly people, I thought…”

Rincewind started to correct him, then realized he didn’t know how to begin.

“It’ll be a blow for old Broadman,” Twoflower continued. “Still, he was wise. I’ve still got the rhinu he paid as his first premium.”

Rincewind didn’t know the meaning of the word premium, but his mind was working fast.

“You inn-sewered the Drum?” he said. “You bet Broadman it wouldn’t catch fire?”

“Oh yes. Standard valuation. Two hundred rhinu. Why do you ask?”

Rincewind turned and stared at the flames racing towards them, and wondered how much of Ankh-Morpork could be bought for two hundred rhinu. Quite a large peice, he decided. Only not now, not the way those flames were moving… [Page 88-89 The Color of Magic. Terry Pratchett. 1983]

Categories
Economics

[2800] What is the fiscal deficit status now?

Back in January, the official deficit projection for 2015 was revised up by the government to 3.2% of GDP from 3.0% due to the falling energy prices. I concluded then the new target was achievable if government revenue would increase by at least 1.2% YoY. It was a reasonable target eight or nine months ago.

Unfortunately, a lot of things have happened since then and that 1.2% YoY revenue growth does not look easy anymore. That means, the current deficit target seems incredible now.

I have updated my sensitivity analysis. I think the fiscal deficit this year will likely be around 3.5%-3.9% of GDP. I did a tighter projection for work but I can afford to cast a wider net here.

Below is a table of deficit-to-GDP, dependent on revenue and NGDP changes this year. I have highlighted several cells in red corresponding to my expectations.

2015 Fiscal deficit sensitivity analysis

The assumptions (projections?) are:

  1. 0%-2% revenue contraction
  2. 4%-5% NGDP growth.
  3. For government spending growth, I imputed 1.2% YoY into my model, which is the exact increase the government announced from its budget revision back in January. I do not expect any spending cut due to… hmm… some political imperatives and I suppose, Keynesian tendencies within the government. I am unsure how the Monday announcement would affect spending as details are scarce so far but my gut feeling says it will not matter.

The weaker revenue is mostly due to depressed petroleum tax collection, lower petroleum royalties and lower dividend. I am a bit unsure how other taxes, especially company and individual income taxes, will change. But what we do have is the first half data and individual income tax collection is already down by 33% YoY, partly, I guess, because of the earlier tax cuts. Company income tax collection rose strongly however, increasing 43% YoY but judging from earning reports so far, I think the second half will be very different.

The 1MDB Minister Prime Minister Finance Minister will table the government budget on October 23. We will know more then.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
p/s — It would be interesting to compare current assumptions with past ones:

  1. My current expectation is based on 1.2% spending growth, 0%-2% revenue contraction and 4%-5% NGDP growth. These are part of the three assumptions listed above.
  2. Back in January 2015 during the revised budget, the assumptions were 1.2% spending growth, 1%-2% revenue growth and 4%-5% NGDP growth.
  3. The original 2015 official projection, shared in October 2014, was 3.2% spending growth, 4.5% revenue growth and 9% NGDP growth.

You can see the drastic change in projections and assumption since October 2014. Maybe a table will be clearer for comparison:

Malaysian deficit ratio target change

Categories
Economics

[2791] Frontloanding theory confirmed for 2Q15 GDP

Apart from the slowdown in consumption, I was wrong. The Malaysian GDP grew 4.9% from a year ago, considerably higher than what I thought it would be at 4.1%-4.2% YoY. Still, economic growth is decelerating quite drastically.

Malaysian GDP growth

Trade surplus did not improve as exports contracted worse than imports, and not the other way round as I wrote previously. Service trade and price factors have something to do with it since trade values published monthly had suggested otherwise. I had naively taken the number without taking into account export and import prices.

Meanwhile, investment growth crashed, becoming much weaker than what I expected. The Pengerang project has not created much dent yet.

But the two big things that caused me to miss the actual growth figure are inventories and government spending. I should have raised my inventory projection when the industrial figures come out respectably okay but the pessimistic me refused to do so. And I had expected with all the rage for deficit targeting, government expenditure would have taken a big hit (yes, I know the GDP government spending does not correspond exactly to actual federal government spending and there are other states’ government spending to account for). It grew in annual terms instead.

The thing that was really hard to get it wrong was consumption. The GST collected its toll. It was a stark slowdown, growing only 6.7% YoY after the 1Q15 8.8% YoY spike. Domestic demand growth decelerated to 4.6% YoY from 7.9% YoY in the same period.

A lot of people had expected a dip after the spike and they were right. The frontloading theory is right.

That has led me thinking about how much did consumers stock up on their foodstuff and other typical consumer non-durable goods. None of us has a warehouse to store a whole year worth of supplies.

This is a hard and important question. Whatever the answer is, it is the key to knowing when will spending normalization take place. When it happens, I think it is reasonable to expect a massive spike in consumption, at least on quarter-on-quarter basis.

If I had to guess, the normalization would probably start this quarter. We could see complete normalization by the end of the year.

Still, preempting the typical data for 3Q15, this quarter would likely be weak too and I feel we would only start getting better in 4Q15. The GST impact itself should be gone completely by 2Q16, if only because of mathematical artifact.

Categories
Economics WDYT

[2790] Guess the 2Q15 Malaysian GDP growth!

The Malaysian GDP figures for the 2015 second quarter will be out next week on Thursday.

I think it will be bad because of how the GST has hit consumption. This will be the focus next week as people write out their commentary. I am a believer of the frontloading theory but admittedly there are some problems with it as I have highlighted yesterday: consumption imports have been growing strongly much against expectations.

The trend in trade is not great either. The funny thing is trade surplus is improving in the quarter. The widening is not something to be celebrated however. Imports raced against exports to the bottom. Imports won that race no thanks to weak consumption.

The industrial index has been doing quite well despite the gloom all around. That is another funky stats that refuse to line up cleanly. The excellent EconsMalaysia believes it is really inventory build-up. That hypothesis can easily be assessed with the GDP figures.

I think, the only real good news will come from investment, especially with the Petronas Pengerang project down south. I have been there myself and it is truly massive. Still, I struggle to think of any other new big public infrastructure project that started recently. I have not heard any large scale work for the Pan-Borneo Highway despite earlier fanfare. MRT and LRT are old news. New water treatment plant? Ask Selangor. New power plant? Ask 1MDB. There are some (an understatement?) residential construction in Danga Bay but…

I could talk about inflation but with the GST in the way, it is hard to be confident about the exact CPI message. My core inflation is out of whack. The Stats Department produces a seasonally-adjusted CPI series but I have no learned to trust it just yet.

On the balance, I think our GDP growth for 2Q15 will probably be in the region of 4.1%-4.2%. I think there is an upward risk with the the weirdness in import composition and the industrial index.

What do you think?

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy grow in 2Q2015 from a year ago?

  • 0%-2.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
  • 2.1%-3.0% (17%, 3 Votes)
  • 3.1%-4.0% (28%, 5 Votes)
  • 4.1%-4.5% (39%, 7 Votes)
  • 4.6%-5.0% (11%, 2 Votes)
  • 5.1%-5.5% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 5.6%-6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Faster than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 18

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