Categories
Economics Personal

[242] Of twelve desperate points

What’s the difference between having four heads in six trials and four consecutive heads in six trials?
Ans: Twelve desperate points.

Somehow, I misread the my exam question and interpreted it as a geometric distribution problem instead of Pascal distribution problem. I can’t believe that I did

P(X=6) = [(1-p)^(3)]*(p) with p=(0.5)^4

because we need four successive successes, instead of

P(X=6) = (5C3)*(p^4)*[(1-p)^2]

But then, even the way I interpreted it into geometric is wrong. Heck, what am I talking about? When you choose your distribution wrongly, there is no way to do it the right way in the wrong way!

To Prof. Inoue, please apply normal distribution into the grading. I know everyone got at least a B+ for the first midterm but the second midterm is a disaster for the whole support. There is no way anyone in the class will get an A- with the current 95-for-A cut off. I dare bet, letting X is the set of discrete grades (X = {A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F}) and P(X=x) is a probability with X=x,

P(X>A-) = 0 and thus P(XA-)

Sigh…

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[235] Of restricted military aid due to the “Jews rule the world by proxy”

Due to Dr. Mahathir’s “Jews rule the world by proxy” speech, the US Senate has agreed to restrict a total of $1.2 million in military aid.
Just a point here, Malaysia’s GDP is measured in billion.

And guess what, ball pen does work in space. Apparently, the “Russian used pencil story was a hoax”. However, the million dollar pen, known as Fisher pen, does exist. Read all about it here.

p/s – Anybody that plays with fire alarm should be amputated.

Categories
Economics

[218] Of playing hockey in a globalized world

While I was on the way back to Ann Arbor from a hockey match at Michigan State University in Lansing, Aaron asked my opinion on globalization. I said to her that I generally believe globalization is good but the only thing that is making it not work are the restrictions forced on trade. Taxes, tariffs, subsidies etc. are preventing globalization.
Though the restrictions are bad, I went on further and told Aaron, Louisa and Amy that I understand why there are restrictions to trade. Smaller economies, I used Malaysia as an example find it very hard to compete with the US and Europe on the global scale. Malaysia needs and wants to protect its local industries. When a small tiger spars against a fully grown lion, certainly the cub is nothing but a dead meat. The only way to help the cub is to protect it and only let the fight happens after the cub has grown into a mighty tiger.

As I continued to vomit my thoughts, I said though restrictions done by the developing countries are acceptable due to the analogy, the restrictions imposed by the developed nations are a bit unfair. If the US and the EU really want globalization, they should be fair to the developing countries, in particular the Asian tigers and the Latins, by abolishing the subsidies and tariffs that are enforced on industries and imports. While eliminating these restrictions, the US and EU shouldn’t expect the developing countries to do the same thing at the same time. The developing countries should be given extra time to adapt to free trade and let their local industries to gain sufficient capital to compete internationally. Until the developing countries have done that, globalization will never work the way it should have been.

And before the conversation topic moved on to the upcoming Aaron’s Rosh Hashanah celebration, I said both parties on each side of the fence, the advocates and the oppositions both have valid points and both are right. To decide which are you, you only need to see where you are. If you are rich, you possibly would be the advocates; if you are otherwise, most likely you will oppose it.

I said that in the Mercedes drove by Louisa with Aaron seemingly to agree. Amy was quietly thinking about it and the GPS kept on its mission to annoy us. Though I managed to convince them, the idea that I threw out had begun to hunt me down while I was trying to get some sleep after doing my statistics homework on correlation and regression later that night.

On the comfy bed, my mind raced to find a better way to explain why some people think globalization is bad and why I believe in a world without border. Thus, I tarried with a pillow under my head and a blanket covering my body for almost two hours. As the precious sleeping time slipped from my clumsy fingers, my thought brought fruit.

If I could rewind the time and be with those three girls of whom I am growing fond of, I would say globalization is like standing in the middle of the Diag during a warm day, naked with the surrounding strangers staring at you. (My apology to all non-Michigan readers. The Diag a huge students’ square with green grasses and trees around it. During a warm day, no doubt it is the densest place in the town of Ann Arbor.)

How do you feel?

The feeling certainly would be insecurity because there is nobody to help you out. There is nobody for you to call out for help. You are alone, naked.

Similarly, globalization describes the same thing, only that you are possibly wearing a tie with a black coat on. Similarly, it’s like a typical graduating undergraduate. After three, four or five years of college, finally you are facing the real world and you have no idea what you want or have to do. All you see is the sheer magnitude of reality bites. All you see is an omnipresent fierce competition to gain the ultimate objective of this world – money and power.

Nobody is saying hi, nobody is saying howdy; everybody is minding their own business.
But, between freedom and dependency, which would you choose?

I do not know about you but I prefer to be independent, free of all things, dependent on nobody. Therefore, I to a certain degree believe in globalization.

As a note, being a green certainly does not contradict with this belief. Damage to the environment is done by the irresponsible industrialists, not by globalization itself.
And oh, the Wolverines lost to the Spartan 4 – 1 and I think I was responsible for the first two goals scored passed Amy. I’d stopped the ball but the ball somehow went to a Spartan player. I stood there like a statue, not amused by my own mistake. Sigh…

The second goal happened simply because I was out of position but I guess I could shift the blame to Aaron since she was the one that asked me to support her. =)

Categories
Economics

[205] Of there are three kinds of lies

The first day of class started early in the morning with a phrase:
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

– Britain Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli.
What a nice way to start the semester, with Econ 405/Stats 405.

Categories
Economics Environment Future Kitchen sink Liberty Sci-fi Society

[199] Of if I ruled the world…

If everything in this world rested on me, I will make sure that the world will be a greener place to live in. All of my policies will be based on three of the Green Four Pillars – okologisch (ecological sound), sozial (social stability) and basisdemokratisch (democratic society).

The economy will not be based simply on capitalism. There are more to life than just capitals. Though free trade is important, certain things will be given some leeway, of such as subsidies so important industries to the green ideology may flourish for the benefit of the whole. Taxes and tariffs will still play an important role in a laissez faire market.

The most important thing that will be made compulsory is the pollution market. Each firm will have its own amount of pollution allowed to be produced. Of course, the amount of pollution it is entitled to will vary according to its size and sector. In this way, the firm will be allowed to do whatever it wants with the permit as long as the activity is within the boundary of the law. Furthermore, the firm will need to pay for each extra ton of pollution it makes as a fine. The amount fine will be large enough as to offset the violating firm profit. In this, it is hoped that the fine will be a sufficient deterrent without hurting the industry greatly.

The only way to produce more products is to obtain pollution permit first. However, it cannot obtain such permit directly from the government but rather, it needs to buy the extra privilege from other firm that uses only partially of their share. Despite this, the government still has the ability to issue such permit as it deems necessary for a sustainable economic growth of a particular sector and not of a particular firm. It is important to state that the permit transaction between firms will still be needed to be approved by the government. In a way, this is similar to the coupon system when in the market, both monetary and coupon units are used for transaction activities. Through this, carbon based economy or rather green economy will be born.

The government on the other hand distributes the permits that in turn given by a world body that regulates the permit circulation internationally. Each country will receive a particular amount of permit after that particular country’s industry, population, resources and area size are considered. A world body, perhaps a neo-WTO will be given the power to make sure that the carbon trading will run smoothly on the international level.

Reward and punishment philosophy will be upheld in order to convince countries to accept this economy. Economic sanction will be imposed on countries that commit serious environmental breach. Most common sanction will be the withdrawal of pollution permits. The heaviest penalty would be an economic isolation on all sorts of goods save essential such as food and medicine. However, environmental violation does not include environmental accidents though inaction may lead to moderate punishment. Through this, it is hoped that pollution problem will be reduced significantly.

Furthermore, developed countries will be demanded to commit a small portion of its income, if it could be afforded, to contribute to global organizations such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN to fight hunger and poverty. The contributors will be rewarded with extra pollution permits at a discounted price.

Income originated from the sale of pollution permits will be used as near free aids to the third world nations. The aid however will be given as long as the receiver commits itself to green economy. At the first sign of diversion from green economy, the receiver will need to repay the aid in full plus backdated interest.

Politically, countries’ traditional borders will be preserved due to cultural difference but within countries, a new kind of political lines will emerge – the ecoregions. Ecoregions are, as stated in Wikipedia, area that has strong ecological connection to other area. These areas will be considered as one political unit. As a simple example, Southeast Asia will be considered as one ecoregion due to its vegetation similarity throughout the region. In introducing new political border, it is hoped that problem such as polluted river or burning forest will be able to be fought effectively. Though this seems to be difficult and annoying redistribution, such method has already been carried among the great lakes states such as Michigan, Illinois and Ontario (3 of the 11 members of the Great Lakes Commission) in order to manage the administrative matters concerning the great lakes. Note that this caucus crosses the US-Canada border.

Free will and democracy will be paramount in governance though it will not be as free as the libertarians would like. Minimal restrictions will be applied in order to maintain social order. Then again, freedom of expression will be observed to almost the fullest extend.
Socially, recycling will be the way of life. To make it a reality, Californian styled system will be practiced. Recyclable consumer products (i.e. cans, bottle etc.) will be sold a little bit higher than its market price. The additional cents will be returned to the buyer once the post-consumer product is returned back to any recycling center. Of course, the price of recyclable product will be lower than any non-recyclable counterpart so as to encourage consumer to buy recyclable product.

Population will be redistributed to various areas so one area will not have too dense with Humans. Also, population control will be enforced through. By doing this, not only could the government prevent overstraining the ecosystem but the social standard including the health system could also be maintained with high standard. Draconian population control however will not be allowed in the constitution because of the observance ofhuman rights.

The opening of new lands will be minimized. Land will only be allowed to be opened for essential activities when it is needed. Land opening for holiday resort, golf course and such will be made difficult if not impossible. Also, to reduce environmental impact due to development, tight Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) will be made compulsory to every project without exception.

Transportation also plays an important role in pollution control. To combat pollution, public transportation will be the main method of moving around and the vehicles ownership will be discouraged by the introduction of special tariffs and taxes. Regular public transportation users (including carpoolers) will be rewarded with various schemes such as privilege in government and privately controlled services. In addition, car manufacturers will be needed to meet high environmental standard (engine efficiency and such) before their products are allowed to hit the street.

Area on land and in the water (the Amazon, Great Coral Reef etc.) that are recognized as essential to biodiversity will be preserved aggressively. No development will be tolerated in the area and violation will be met to the fullest extend of the law.

The Earth will be given time to adapt to us and repair herself. We as Humans will not only give the Earth time, we will also be proactive in repairing her. In this, the hope of a peaceful coexistence between Humans, other biotics, abiotics and Gaia will come to reality.