Categories
Economics

[382] Of the US – Australia Free Trade Agreement

While at the library today, an article in the New York Times caught my eyes. The report is about an effect of a free trade agreement between Australia and the United States. I must admit that I do not know the details of the agreement but the predicted outcome caused by the pact does not sound like an effect of free trade. The reason why I think so is because experts in Australia say that prices of drugs in Australia are due to rise if the agreement is to be signed and enforced.

I was terribly disturbed by this and did some research over the net to overcome the confusion. (Actually, I googled. I think Google is the best that has ever happened to the internet. Online gaming is the second best thing; online shopping is third. And pr0n is the fourth bes – nay I’m kidding. But where should I place piracy? Hmm…)

After a number of clicks probably comparable to the amount of clicks needed to play Blizzard’s Diablo I, I found more information on the deal.

The Times in its report does not explicitly mention why prices could actually go up. The report merely says that the free trade agreement (FTA) could somewhat affect the Australian subsidy on drugs. From there, I got the impression that the FTA demands an existing subsidy to be removed.

However that is not the case. From a girly webbie:

The 50 year old scheme guarantees drug companies a larger market – mostly poorer consumers – while allowing the government to negotiate “price for volume” discounts.

It seems that instead of typical subsidization, the Australian government buys drugs in a very large quantity. Due to economies of scale, the government is able to obtain the drugs at a price lower than the market-without-the-scheme price. And the government probably acquires stuff from firms that manage to produce drugs at a price cheaper than its American counterpart.

Furthermore, in the pharmaceutical benefits scheme (PBS) – name of the subsidy program – the government chooses certain drugs to be included in a list. The government in turn will only buy drugs listed and then resell it at a subsidized price. All other drugs left out of the lists will not be subsidized and thus, will be priced higher while facing of cheaper substitutes. An ugly result of the unsubsidized firms.

That is not really a fertile ground for competitive market but it seems to work fine at the moment.

And here, to my understanding, is how price could go up.

Drugs in the US are expensive. I do not need a statistic to know that drugs in the US are goddamn expensive. When I dislocated my arm last year, I was billed roughly USD 2000 for the service I received from the hospital; a huge chuck of the $2000 was due to morphines and whatever other stuff that was applied on me.

With the FTA, the US pharmaceutical industry would have a say on what will go on the PBS list (PBS is not Public Broadcasting Service if you are not paying attention to what I am rambling about). When this happens, certain expensive American drugs will be on the list regardless the prices of the drugs.

And if the expensive drugs get to get on the list, the government would have to pay more in order to make the PBS goes on. Or the Australian government could pay as it had before the effect of the FTA (as the government is paying right now) and transfer the cost to consumers. Either way, Australians are bound to pay more. In the first case, more eventual taxes or less surplus if there was a surplus in the first place; in the second, well, part of the cost would be passed directly to the consumers.

Notice that the problem arises if expensive drugs (read the US drugs) are to be included into the PBS list. If the US pharmaceutical industry do not have a say, then everything should be fine as long as the Australian selection of drugs is based on price; cheaper drugs with the same quality get to get into the list, as it is right now I presume.

In my opinion, this is wrong and calling the agreement as FTA is a misnomer. But, I could be wrong on that because the FTA concerns lots of other stuff according to Global Trade Watch and this drugs issue is a subset of a larger picture. In the website, you could read the fact sheets provided by both Australia and the US.

If I were an Australian, I would join hand in hand with the Labour Party and oppose this arrangement.

But, what would Australia get if the FTA is signed? Again, from the girly site:

US government negotiators are pressing the Australian government to agree to modifications to the government subsidised pharmaceutical benefits scheme in exchange for allowing Australian farmers better access to US markets, as part of a free trade agreement.

Hah! Good luck competing with those protectionists.

p/s – read the Australian Prescriber for more info on PBS. The article wants the abolishment of the subsidy altogether. I agree. Subsidy is an inefficient way of spending money but that is not the focus of what I am trying to say here. If disbandment of the regime was the issue, the current debate would take a different light. Price would definitely be higher but possibly not as high as the US thus, the US entry would not affect anything in Down Under.

pp/s – the propaganda war against couch ban has begun at the Michigan Daily.

Categories
Economics Environment

[378] Of to use or not to use

One of my dilemmas of being a green is the usage of plastic bag. Yes, things as small as plastic bag do bother me.

I am a green and therefore, whenever I shop, I will ask for paper bag. The reason is simple; I do not want to encourage the petroleum-based industry too much at the expense of the Earth. Paper bag on the other hand is a recycled product and plus, it is biodegradable; clearly better alternative from my point of view.

Only when it is very inconvenient for me will I accept plastic bag. Even then, I will feel a hint of guilt.

Now, the dilemma – if I do not accept plastic bag and go for paper bag instead, other people will use the plastic product nonetheless. If I use the plastic bag, I can rest assure that I will properly dispose it or even use it as a durable product. If somebody else goes for plastic bag, I do not have the assurance that that somebody would do what I will do. And thus, in comes asymmetric information – the lack of information for one to make an informed decision.

With this realization, my policy of using paper bag is being challenged. The question now, should I use plastic bag so that I could be sure that it will be properly treated or should I not?

Further problem is this – if I go for plastic bag due to the reason stated earlier, and if every green thinks like me, that would signal the firms that nobody would want to use paper bag. Firms will then reduce the number of paper bags or maybe even downright stop supplying it for the consumers. At the same thing, the increase usage plastic bag signals the firms to get more of it for the consumers. Thus, more plastic bag with less of its paper counterpart.

Hamlet would say, to be or not to be, that is the question. I would say, to use or not to use.

Of course, I could easily take both types at the same time; that would certainly solve the dilemma. However, another problem arises – over-consumption.

OMG, I have never thought being a green and taking up economics as a major is tough.

But the only real solution is to get one’s hand on the information on how plastic bag is being used and disposed by the consumers.

Somebody should do a survey.

Categories
Economics Environment Science & technology

[359] Of the third agricultural revolution

http://www1.oecd.org/publications/observer/216/f-toc.htm OECD's L'ObservateurWhat do I think of genetically engineered food?

After more than a year of thinking, I am still undecided on the issue despite being a green. Another green related issue that I am undecided is the usage of nuclear power. James Lovelock’s supportive statement on nuclear power as a short run solution to the problems brought upon by the six greenhouse gases has not helped me form a concrete opinion for or against nuclear power.

Genetically modified food has the capacity to save millions and possibly a few billions from hunger. Technology has helped revolutionized agricultural sector before the Industrial Revolution and now, we are on the eve of another agricultural revolution, apart of a larger ongoing life science revolution.

The only difference between the last two with today’s revolution is the tools that were and are used.

Back in the 18th century, new techniques of growing crop were discovered. The introduction of machineries helped distribute nutrient better throughout farmlands. Soils were more protected by four field crop rotation. More importantly, this revolution jumpstarted the industrial revolution that forever changed mankind’s course of history.

The second agricultural revolution happened in the mid 20th century with the introduction of fertilizers and pesticides. Output increased greatly thanks to the development done during the Second World War. This revolution introduced to us pesticide; one of them is a chemical known as DDT – the one that persuaded Rachel Carson to write Silent Spring. In the book, she familiarized the public with the idea of food chain and that in turn prepared the world for modern environmental movement.

Now in this new revolution, we are playing with the building blocks of life itself – the proteins that create you and me and all living beings. We are playing God and scarily, we excel at it. In fact, we have managed to create new species of plants and animals for better or for worse, for a greater purpose or for our mere amusement. For instance, fluorescence fish is one of the first ever genetically modified pets in the world. This fish, glow in the dark.

The capability to save millions of lives is the key point presented by the people that believe in GE food. This point is particularly attractive when you are dying from hunger in Africa due to drought, war or any unwelcome situation. The people that believe in GE food are confused by the opposition to such technology. One of the proponents of GE food is the giant biotechnology firm Monsanto of which, according to Wikipedia, controls 70 per cent of the world genetically engineered crop supply.

One of the arguments against GE food is safety. Unlike the effect of pesticide, the effect of GE food is still unknown. It would take several years, or even decades before the effect takes place. Furthermore, some assert that GE plants somehow alter soil composition in a negative way, making the soil less fertile and impedes future food output.

Though people may disagree on a lot of things, in my opinion, the benefits could be seen in the short run, almost immediately, if the distribution system is efficient, which I doubt very much. The ugly side of the story would probably be revealed in the future – nobody knows for sure. It all depends on your investment horizon, as few economists that I have the pleasure of knowing would have called it.

For this lack of information, I will always err on GE issue. But for all I know, I may have eaten some of it unknowingly.

However, cases like the Monsanto versus Schmeiser, a multimillions/billions firm against a small Canadian farmer, tend to force me to side with typical greens even if I disagree with some of the greens.

p/s – Akamai, one of the main players in the World Wide Web, is having a problem. As a result, countless sites such as Yahoo!, CNET, Reuters and Greenpeace going at a very slow pace since late Friday. Sometimes, the page loading process even failed.
Suddenly, the world seems to be slowing down.

Categories
Economics Environment Humor Personal Politics & government

[358] Of French Constitution and the word environment

The French Parliament is inserting the word environment into their constitution. And the Green opposes such change.

Very amusing. Of all fractions, it is the Green that opposes (the other lefties abstain) instead of the right.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
p/s — Safire is a goddamn hilarious man. He hates the French, he hates the democrat and he hates the penny. And yeah, abolish the penny! LOL!
Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
pp/s — I thought the oil price was stabilizing at the new price. But, the new price is at $42.45 per barrel – no thanks to the newest incident in Saudi Arabia. And hell, air travel is going to be expensive.
Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
ppp/s — Jeffrey Chen died in a plane crash on Monday. I first read about it in the paper but I was not sure whether it was the same Jeff that I knew. A news through the Solar Car Team’s mailing list later confirmed this, unfortunately.

I don’t really know him because I didn’t really talk to him a lot. But I do remember that he was cheerful in most cases and he gave me rides to and fro Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor. And he did smile to me whenever he bumbed up with me.

May God bless him.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved
p4/s — A joke on Bush for comparing so-called war on terrorism with WWII.

If Bush was alive on December 8, 1941:

“My fellow Americans. Yesterday was a day that will live in infamy. We were the victims of a vicious and unprovoked attack by the Empire of Japan.Therefore, I have decided to attack Spain.”

Categories
Economics

[355] Of another 7.0%

For the first quarter according to Bank Negara (Malaysian central bank for you non-Malaysians), Malaysian gross domestic product has grown for 7.6%. That is quite high and it definitely reminds me of the days during the Asian boom when Malaysia and a few others Southeast Asian countries earned the Asian tigers nick. Back in those days, Malaysia had consistently grown for more than 7.0% annually.

But of course, this is nothing compared to China, which is growing at almost 10%. Then again, China has only recently started to develop its economy. In contrast, I have read a report somewhere that states a country in Africa has a growth rate of about 70% – my guess, there is not even a toilet bowl there.

Forget about the toilet and let us concentrate on a few things that caught my eyes. Actually there are only two things. First:

The underlying fundamentals will continue to accord flexibility for monetary policy to support stronger economic activities, without creating inflationary pressures.

What flexibility? The Ringgit is pegged to the Dollar! Bank Negara is obliged to buy or sell the US Dollar in order to keep the exchange rate fixed at a certain rate. There is little room for maneuvering when it comes to monetary policy.

Secondly:

Interest rates can remain low for some time to come to support the growth momentum.

That sounds totally like Alan Greenspan. I am starting to wonder if all central bankers speak the same language.