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Economics Environment History & heritage Politics & government

[392] Of 59 years later

Today is the 59th anniversary of the dropping of the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima. Approximately 80 000 people died on that day and many others in later due to deadly radioactivity. It was the finale of the greatest war in human history.

Let us hope that such weapon may never be used again. The first step to ensure that is to urge the US to adhere to ABM Treaty that it signed more than three decades ago. And the only way to do that is to remove Bush from the White House.

Go Ralph Nader!

Heh.

Anyway, I donated a few bucks to the local Green Party earlier. Hopes it is worth it.

p/s – there is a plan in California for a greater expansion of solar energy:

California officials are proposing that half of all new homes in the state be running on solar energy in 10 years, an effort spurred by $100 million in annual incentives paid for by electricity consumers.

Denmark is known for its wind energy, California will be known for its solar energy.

Categories
Economics

[391] Of $50 per barrel

I have always believed that $50 per barrel of crude oil is possible but for the price reach that level before the year ends is way too soon.

p/s – a must read entry. Extremely hilarious. I had my first smile of the day because of that blog.

Categories
Economics Environment Politics & government

[388] Of DNC, John Kerry and Howard Dean

I will have a vice president who will not conduct secret meetings with polluters to rewrite our environmental laws

– John Kerry, July 29th 2004, Boston.

Nuff’ said.

Anyway, the Republican convention will be on August the 30th if I am not mistaken. It will be interesting to see how the GOP will react to the Democrats’ call for more positive competition instead of a cynical one.

So far, a lot of Bush’s campaign ads on the TV have been trying to discredit Kerry. Kerry has a few too but Kerry has not spent as much as Bush on negative ads.

And after four days of watching the DNC, I say Barack Obama is the best speaker.

Nevertheless, it is quite hard to see who will win the coming election.

On the other day, on the second day to be exact, Howard Dean gave his speech and he said democrats should not be ashamed of being democrats. People were confused with his words but later in an interview on PBS with Jim Lehrer, Dean explained that statement.

He said, people think Clinton got into office because Clinton was more of a centrist rather than a liberal. When he said that, then the “ah” came.

David Brooks, of who was on the show along with Mark Shields, disagreed and stressed later that Clinton won because Clinton took a sort of centrist position instead of a more liberal one.

Howard Dean is probably one of the true Democrats but I have to agree with Brooks. Clinton won because he took a centrist position.

I agree so because there is sort of case in economics that supports Clinton-was-a-centrist argument. It is something like this.

Imagine a one dimension line that represents a beach. At the same time, there are a lot of people on the beach, the sun is up there, clear sky and there are two ice-cream vendors at both end of the beach. Now, people from the right till the middle would go to the right-positioned ice-cream booth while the left-positioned will be visited by people from the left till the middle; this is based on the assumption that distance is the deciding factor on which booth should be visited and price is the same.

Now, if the right booth moved closer to the left while the left booth stayed left, the owner of the moved booth would get more customers. This is true because more people would be closer to the right booth than the left booth. If the right booth shifted straight to the middle while left stayed left, all the people on the right side would go to the right booth and half of the people on the left side of the beach would visit the right booth; the left booth would get only half of what it would have gotten if both booths had stayed at both end of the spectrum.

This is applicable to political party and certainly true in the case where there are two dominant parties. And this certainly dismisses Dean’s suggestion.

Anyway, I heard Ralph Nader has a good chance of getting into Michigan’s ballot. I would love to see Ralph Nader wins but given the situation, I will have to go with John Kerry.

Categories
Economics

[382] Of the US – Australia Free Trade Agreement

While at the library today, an article in the New York Times caught my eyes. The report is about an effect of a free trade agreement between Australia and the United States. I must admit that I do not know the details of the agreement but the predicted outcome caused by the pact does not sound like an effect of free trade. The reason why I think so is because experts in Australia say that prices of drugs in Australia are due to rise if the agreement is to be signed and enforced.

I was terribly disturbed by this and did some research over the net to overcome the confusion. (Actually, I googled. I think Google is the best that has ever happened to the internet. Online gaming is the second best thing; online shopping is third. And pr0n is the fourth bes – nay I’m kidding. But where should I place piracy? Hmm…)

After a number of clicks probably comparable to the amount of clicks needed to play Blizzard’s Diablo I, I found more information on the deal.

The Times in its report does not explicitly mention why prices could actually go up. The report merely says that the free trade agreement (FTA) could somewhat affect the Australian subsidy on drugs. From there, I got the impression that the FTA demands an existing subsidy to be removed.

However that is not the case. From a girly webbie:

The 50 year old scheme guarantees drug companies a larger market – mostly poorer consumers – while allowing the government to negotiate “price for volume” discounts.

It seems that instead of typical subsidization, the Australian government buys drugs in a very large quantity. Due to economies of scale, the government is able to obtain the drugs at a price lower than the market-without-the-scheme price. And the government probably acquires stuff from firms that manage to produce drugs at a price cheaper than its American counterpart.

Furthermore, in the pharmaceutical benefits scheme (PBS) – name of the subsidy program – the government chooses certain drugs to be included in a list. The government in turn will only buy drugs listed and then resell it at a subsidized price. All other drugs left out of the lists will not be subsidized and thus, will be priced higher while facing of cheaper substitutes. An ugly result of the unsubsidized firms.

That is not really a fertile ground for competitive market but it seems to work fine at the moment.

And here, to my understanding, is how price could go up.

Drugs in the US are expensive. I do not need a statistic to know that drugs in the US are goddamn expensive. When I dislocated my arm last year, I was billed roughly USD 2000 for the service I received from the hospital; a huge chuck of the $2000 was due to morphines and whatever other stuff that was applied on me.

With the FTA, the US pharmaceutical industry would have a say on what will go on the PBS list (PBS is not Public Broadcasting Service if you are not paying attention to what I am rambling about). When this happens, certain expensive American drugs will be on the list regardless the prices of the drugs.

And if the expensive drugs get to get on the list, the government would have to pay more in order to make the PBS goes on. Or the Australian government could pay as it had before the effect of the FTA (as the government is paying right now) and transfer the cost to consumers. Either way, Australians are bound to pay more. In the first case, more eventual taxes or less surplus if there was a surplus in the first place; in the second, well, part of the cost would be passed directly to the consumers.

Notice that the problem arises if expensive drugs (read the US drugs) are to be included into the PBS list. If the US pharmaceutical industry do not have a say, then everything should be fine as long as the Australian selection of drugs is based on price; cheaper drugs with the same quality get to get into the list, as it is right now I presume.

In my opinion, this is wrong and calling the agreement as FTA is a misnomer. But, I could be wrong on that because the FTA concerns lots of other stuff according to Global Trade Watch and this drugs issue is a subset of a larger picture. In the website, you could read the fact sheets provided by both Australia and the US.

If I were an Australian, I would join hand in hand with the Labour Party and oppose this arrangement.

But, what would Australia get if the FTA is signed? Again, from the girly site:

US government negotiators are pressing the Australian government to agree to modifications to the government subsidised pharmaceutical benefits scheme in exchange for allowing Australian farmers better access to US markets, as part of a free trade agreement.

Hah! Good luck competing with those protectionists.

p/s – read the Australian Prescriber for more info on PBS. The article wants the abolishment of the subsidy altogether. I agree. Subsidy is an inefficient way of spending money but that is not the focus of what I am trying to say here. If disbandment of the regime was the issue, the current debate would take a different light. Price would definitely be higher but possibly not as high as the US thus, the US entry would not affect anything in Down Under.

pp/s – the propaganda war against couch ban has begun at the Michigan Daily.

Categories
Economics Environment

[378] Of to use or not to use

One of my dilemmas of being a green is the usage of plastic bag. Yes, things as small as plastic bag do bother me.

I am a green and therefore, whenever I shop, I will ask for paper bag. The reason is simple; I do not want to encourage the petroleum-based industry too much at the expense of the Earth. Paper bag on the other hand is a recycled product and plus, it is biodegradable; clearly better alternative from my point of view.

Only when it is very inconvenient for me will I accept plastic bag. Even then, I will feel a hint of guilt.

Now, the dilemma – if I do not accept plastic bag and go for paper bag instead, other people will use the plastic product nonetheless. If I use the plastic bag, I can rest assure that I will properly dispose it or even use it as a durable product. If somebody else goes for plastic bag, I do not have the assurance that that somebody would do what I will do. And thus, in comes asymmetric information – the lack of information for one to make an informed decision.

With this realization, my policy of using paper bag is being challenged. The question now, should I use plastic bag so that I could be sure that it will be properly treated or should I not?

Further problem is this – if I go for plastic bag due to the reason stated earlier, and if every green thinks like me, that would signal the firms that nobody would want to use paper bag. Firms will then reduce the number of paper bags or maybe even downright stop supplying it for the consumers. At the same thing, the increase usage plastic bag signals the firms to get more of it for the consumers. Thus, more plastic bag with less of its paper counterpart.

Hamlet would say, to be or not to be, that is the question. I would say, to use or not to use.

Of course, I could easily take both types at the same time; that would certainly solve the dilemma. However, another problem arises – over-consumption.

OMG, I have never thought being a green and taking up economics as a major is tough.

But the only real solution is to get one’s hand on the information on how plastic bag is being used and disposed by the consumers.

Somebody should do a survey.