Categories
Economics

[699] Of looming economic recession?

Yield curve is currently a hot topic in the United States. At least, in the economic circles . Why is it so hot?

Well, yield curve is a locus of points of interest rate for bonds of different maturities and right now, it’s inverted. Inverted yield curve means expected future short term interest rates are falling. At the same time, inverted yield curve usually precedes a recession.

Earlier in December 2005, the Federal Reserve raised the US interest rate. While at it, the all-powerful Alan Greenspan for the first time in many months, abandoned the word “accommodating” from his vocabulary. Many see that as a hint that the US market has reached its peak.

Greenspan however has dismissed the talk of upcoming recession. He and a few others don’t believe that an inverted yield curve is a signal of a downturn. I hope he’s right.

If he’s wrong, given that the US is Malaysia’s largest trading partner, Malaysian export might suffer quite a bit unless demands from elsewhere pick up. Malaysia certainly doesn’t need to catch an American flu.

How about that to start the new year? Pessimistic already?

Categories
Economics Environment

[698] Of top ten Malaysian environmental issues of 2005

With 2005 scurrying away fast, let’s see what I consider as top ten green issues in Malaysia for 2005.

Topping my list is definitely the haze that covered Malaysia, no thanks to weak Indonesian enforcement and possibly, irresponsible Malaysian firms. With Malaysians breathing smog, the term “fog you” started to gain currency. This was a signal of a growing discontent, directed towards Indonesian ineffectiveness in handling a grave major regional environmental emergency. There was even a small protest in front of the Indonesian embassy in Kuala Lumpur, and I was there. Though the problem is no more, despite a decade of this annual haze, I’ve yet to see any concrete action taken to completely solve the problem. So far, people in ASEAN have been treating the symptoms but not the cause. Hence, mark my word – the haze will return in 2006. So, stock up those masks now.

Second to the haze is the mis-development of Bukit Cahaya Seri Alam Agriculture Park in Selangor. The park is a nature reserve – what’s left of it anyway. Part of it was illegally developed by certain people and was approved by the local government in spite of the park’s status. And this happened under the nose of the state Chief Minister. Believe it or not, the Chief Minister’s office is not too far from the park. I’m very much dissatisfied with the outcome of the “investigation” since the people in the state government got away relatively unscathed. Those people should’ve been sacked and brought to justice – including the Chief Minister. But no. They even have the audacity to declare Selangor as a developed state…

Third is poarching and illegal trade of endangered wildlife. Remember the Malayan tiger that was butchered? How about the tiger cub that was saved from the soup bowl? That might be a tip of an iceberg but thanks to public exposure, awareness is starting to creep up. Slower than I would like but up nonetheless. Still, the government is not doing enough. Malaysia wildlife law needs serious upgrading. Or at least better enforcement.

Fourth is water shortage. It was rather surpising to see dams water level dangerously fell how it had fallen this year. The odd thing is, Malaysia is a tropical country and it suffers from water shortage. It’s like, going to the north pole and having a shortage of snow! Well, not really but, you know. Water rationing was imposed at several places. Thank goodness Kuala Lumpur was spared. One thing history tells us is that we never learn. This shortage is set to happen again next year and I’m convinced of that.

Fifth is still about water. This time, it’s about too much water. Northern Malaysian states suffered their worst flood in 30 years. The flood was partly due to above average torrential rain and inadequate drainage system. Crazy. Malaysians could have used that extra rain earlier but no, someone up there had a different idea. Meanwhile, Vietnam, mainland China and Japan suffered record breaking rain and snowfall. Possibility of a repeat? It depends on the climate.

Sixth, the Johor Department of the Environment fire. The fire did one thing – documents on a toxic waste case are in form of unreadable ashes now. The fire brings in suspicious circumstances given that the DOE was closing in on a toxic waste dumping case. Soon after, police comfirmed that it was an arsonist’s work. Later, a DOE officer was murdered. He was the one that reported the fire and a few other things to the police.

Seventh, mistreatment of pets. But thanks to wide coverage by Malaysian press and in part to SPCA’s efforts, Animal Ordinance 1953 is undergoing study and might have sharper teeth soon.

Number eight, bird flu. Malaysia wasn’t hit hard but culling of chickens did occur in Kelantan, near the Thai border. If Malaysia had been hit harder, eight would have been too low a rank.

Ninth. Tsunami. The 2004 tsunami convinced authorities in Malaysia and indeed all around the world of the importance of mangrove swamps. Efforts to conserve and rehabilitate mangrove swamps are receiving much needed attention due to how the swamps softened the destructive force of the tsunami.

Finally, protection of green lungs in and around Kuala Lumpur. These green areas faced possible extinction but protests from local residents prevented that. Better still, the opposition comprises of influential and filthy rich people. Thus, any effort to violate the green areas in the future will meet above average, fierce opposition.

With that, happy new year to you. I’m off to witness some fireworks.

Categories
Economics

[696] Of Proton to sell Lotus?

When I first heard that Proton was selling Agusta of Italy for €1, in my mind, it’s purely economics and it’s an acceptable immediate loss cutting step. Now, with this new cooperation with Volkswagen of Germany, it’s rumored that Proton might cut its ties with Lotus. For me, this is starting to go beyond economics. According to Business Times:

This was the second provision Proton made for the year after RM165 million set aside in the first quarter. “(The sale) may be a prelude to a tie-up with VW. The German carmaker may have stipulated the sell-off of loss-making non-core assets as a precondition to taking up a strategic stake in Proton,” Mayban Securities added.

The research house speculates that the next major non-core asset to be sold could be its Group Lotus plc unit, as it reckon VW has superior engineering expertise and experience in performance cars in the Lamborghini and Bugatti marques.

“Lotus would, therefore, be a duplication of resources. At this juncture, this view is purely speculative,” said the research house.

I first came across it here:

1316 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Mayban Securities speculates Proton’s (5304.KU) sale of 57.8% Agusta stake “might be a prelude to a tie-up with Volkswagen”. Move also shows new Proton management prepared to bite bullet, make painful decisions so as to turn around Proton. Also speculates Proton may sell 100%-owned sports carmaker Lotus in run-up to VW tie-up. But admits, “at this juncture, this view is purely speculative.” Keeps Trading Buy call with MYR7 target price. Shares +2.4% at MYR6.30.(CAL)

I hope that Proton would hold on to Lotus. I hope, however the people inside Proton do the cost and benefit analysis, the result is that keeping Lotus brings on net benefit to Proton.

And if I weren’t an economics graduate, I would say, screw the German and keep Lotus.

Categories
Economics

[694] Of economic experiment: bartering

I’m kinda in a hurry. So, this will be a quickie.

My mom wanted to simply throw way this blender. It’s a little bit leaky down under.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

I told her that she should recycle it but she said, it’s easier to simply throw it away. I, feeling guilty seeing that thing goes unrecycle, took it and am turning it into a little economic experiment . Bartering.

Inspired by one red paperclip, let’s see how a blander will do me good.

Here’s the deal: I want to do some bartering. If you for some reason that I don’t want to know, want or need to this blender, offer me something and if our wants or needs, mostly wants, coincide, we’ll trade. Simple. And no money please.

If you are interested, email me or simply leave behind a comment here. Aight?

Later.

Categories
Economics Science & technology

[692] Of Finance Ministry, lies, damn lies and statistics

Yesterday in the Malaysian Upper House, the Malaysian Finance Ministry Parliamentary Secretary was reported of saying that “ringgit is relatively stable compared with the currencies of Malaysia’s major trading partners after the government removed the ringgit peg on July 21.”

More:

Hilmi said that since the transition, where the ringgit exchange rate was determined by market forces, the local currency had risen compared with the euro by 11.9 percent, yen (9.7 percent) and between 0.2 percent to 7.7 percent compared with regional currencies.

“After the depeg and up to Nov 30, the ringgit has increased compared with the US dollar by 0.6 percent to RM3.7783,” he said in his reply to a question posed by Senator Datuk Seri Lam Kang Sang at the Dewan Negara sitting, here Tuesday.

Hilmi said that the ringgit also rose compared with the euro by 3.8 percent and yen by 6.7 percent and mixed against regional currencies.

The funny thing is, while what he said is true, somehow, I feel that he has conveniently omit what’s going on in December 2005. For this month, the ringgit is growing weaker against:

USD

Yahoo! Fair Use.

EUR

Yahoo! Fair Use.

JPY

Yahoo! Fair Use.

SGD

Yahoo! Fair Use.

United States, Japan and Singapore are the top three major Malaysian trading partners.

From the graphs, capital flight is apparent.

Earlier last month, I realized that Malaysia seems to have a negative real interest rate. Soon after, Bank Negara raised Malaysian nominal interest rate up to 3%. At 3%, I feel the real interest rate is still negative. Another rate hike is a must for Malaysia to have positive real interest rate given that inflation is above 3%. A positive real interest might stop and reverse this December’s run.

Unless the Bank Negara increases the rate and in turn, halts this gradual and minor capital outflow, I would hardly call ringgit as stable.

p/s – Chinese statisticians say: Whoops. We forgot to add USD280 billion into our 2004 GDP. With that corrected, we just want to say that we’re the sixth largest economy in the world.

Others: Ack! You forgot USD280 billion? (Malaysian estimated GDP for 2005 according to Wikipedia is USD290 billion)

pp/s – SuprNova.org, the site that I depended on many things fun before it was shut down, speaks.