Categories
Economics Environment

[975] Of 300 MV coal power plant versus 2400 MV hydroelectric dam

Yesterday, The Star reported that there’s an opposition to a plan to construct a coal power plant in Sabah:

LAHAD DATU: A coal-fired power plant in an area earmarked for eco-tourism in Silam is yet to get off the ground but already it is stoking up anger among several groups in this part of east coast Sabah.

The most vocal opponents to the 300MW plant, said to cost between RM1.2bil and RM1.3bil, are a group of environmentalists, social activists and local businessmen in this booming agriculture town.

They fear the plant will do more harm than good for them and the environment stretching from Darvel Bay to the pristine Danum Valley forest, some 80km away.

According to officials, the power plant would utilize clean coal technology:

KUALA LUMPUR: The technology used for coal-based power plants is different compared to that used previously, Deputy Energy, Water and Communications Minister Datuk Shaziman Abu Mansor said.

There has been a lot of talk of clean coal technology for the past few years in Malaysia but I’m still skeptical on how clean the power plants, including the one in Sabah, would be. Furthermore, I’m unsure how the power plant plans to store the carbon byproduct, i.e. waste.

Regardless the technology used, I wonder though, why do we need a 300 megawatts power plant when we are going to have a 2,400 megawatts Bakun hydroelectric dam soon? Why do we need another 300 MV coal power plant when most output of the 2,400 MV dam would not be used?

Not too long ago, the Sarawak state government wanted to build a metal smelter plant as an economic justification of the construction of the mightily huge Bakun dam. Without the smelter, the state government believes that the construction of the dam wouldn’t be justified, especially when the plan to connect the Malay Peninsula with Borneo via an underwater cable was scrapped due to the Asian financial crisis of the last decade. If the operator of dam really couldn’t find a buyer for its electricity, surely the Bakun dam could accommodate whatever the Sabah coal plant would accommodate. By the way, the Bakun dam is expected to become operational by mid-2009.

Perhaps, certain engineering issues regarding electricity transmission between Bakun, Sarawak and Sabah necessitates the construction of the new coal power plant in Malaysian Borneo?

If there’s none, then somebody better explain.

Categories
Economics Liberty

[973] Mengenai pengkhianat bangsa

Kadang-kala, terguris rasanya hati ini mendengar rakan-rakan memanggil diri ini sebagai pengkhianat bangsa. Walaupun terasa, aku tidak berminat untuk menukar pendirianku hanya kerana perasaanku tercabar. Aku percaya, perasaanku tidak setanding fikiranku. Selagi dasar-dasar penindasan masih berdiri tegak dengan angkuhnya, selagi tidak diyakinkan kepada ku dasar-dasar penindasan itulah yang terbaik untuk tanahair ini, untuk alam ini, selagi itu akan aku mempertahankan pemikiranku. Walaupun jatuh tertumbuk serta keris terbenam di perut, darah Melayu mengalir di tangan Melayu.

Bagi ku, bukan susah untuk membezakan sesuatu yang jelas buruk daripada yang baik. Hanya kematangan fikiran dan kejujuran sahaja diperlukan untuk mengenali perbezaan di antara dua itu. Jika seseorang itu melakukan sesuatu kesalahan dengan sengaja mahupun tidak, terutamanya jika seseorang itu adalah seorang pemimpin, tegurlah. Janganlah kita menyorokkan kesalahannya, merasakan seolah-olah, kerana beliau pemimpin bangsa, beliau perlu dipertahankan. Beliau juga hanya manusia biasa. Bila pula beliau dilantik menjadi rasul, bebas dari kesilapan?

Janganlah engkau berkata kepada aku yang kita Melayu, kita perlu mempertahankan pemimpin-peminpin Melayu, walau apapun yang berlaku. Janganlah engkau berkata, kita Melayu, kita perlu taat kepada pemimpin demi bangsa. Tidakkah engkau sedar yang ketaatan yang buta membawa padah?

Lihatlah Tuah. Lihatlah bagaimana dia sanggup melupakan segala yang tidak adil, demi raja. Sanggupkan engkau membutakan matamu kepada semua yang tidak adil demi ketaatan kepada pemimpin bangsa?

Pada ku, Jebat jauh lebih hebat. Pada ku, raja adil disembah, raja zalim disanggah.

Apabila aku melantik memimpin, aku bukannya menjual maruahku kepadanya. Aku melantik memimpin untuk melakukan perkara yang aku mahu dilaksanakan. Bodohlah aku jika aku menjadi seekor lembu yang ditarik hidungnya oleh tuannya untuk dikorbankan, taat sehingga terlambat untuk menukar fikiran.

Mungkin engkau akan berkata, “tetapi tidakkah engkau sedar ada di antara ahli-ahli bangsa-bangsa yang lain yang mahu melemahkan Melayu, yang benci Melayu. Yang engkau memecah-belahkan Melayu dengan tidak menyokong pemimpin bangsa? Yang bersatu kita teguh, bercerai kita roboh.”

Aku mengakui yang itu benar, ada yang membenci Melayu. Tetapi jawapan kepada kebencian bukannya kebencian. Sifat benci-membenci hanya akan memburukkan lagi keadaan yang sedia keruh. Dan aku bersejutu, kita perlu bersatu untuk menjadi kuat. Tetapi biarlah kita bersatu di pihak yang benar. Tiada gunanya bersatu tetapi salah. Jika pemimpin itu gagal, ketepikanlah. Apabila pemimpin itu gagal, itulah masanya kita memerlukan orang yang baru. Jika benar engkau sayang kepada bangsa ini lebih daripada ku, kenapakah engkau patuh kepada ketuamu yang telah gagal membangunkan bangsamu? Yang menggagalkan bangsamu? Bangsamu dan bangsaku akan gagal jika pemimpin yang gagal itu dibenarkan untuk terus melakukan kegagalan tanpa segan silu. Aku lebih rela berpecah dari terus jatuh tersungkur kerana kita enggan berubah.

Bercakap tentang bersatu, ketaatan kepada bangsa tidak bermaksud ketaatan kepada pemimpin. Pemimpin yang mahu engkau percaya kepada sebaliknya hanya berminat tentang dirinya, bukan bangsa. Mengapa pula engkau percaya pemimpin-pemimpin itu membantu Melayu apabila Melayu di kampung masih miskin tapi dirinya sendiri semakin hari semakin kaya?

Percayakah engkau kepada pemimpin-pemimpinmu itu yang hari demi hari, berteriak tentang hak-hak Melayu, tapi hanya rakan-rakan mereka yang telah kaya dibantu? Adakah engkau percaya yang dengan membantu Melayu-melayu yang kaya ini, Melayu-melayu yang miskin akan terbantu secara serentak?

Jika ya jawapanmu, maka tergamanlah aku. Tidakkah engkau sedar yang apa yang miskin terima hanya serbuk-serbuk roti, bukan roti itu sendiri? Aku fikir, jika benarlah kita hendak membantu yang miskin, tidak kiralah warna kulit, kita berikan yang miskin roti itu, bukannya serbuk-serbuk halus. Serbuk itu hanyalah sisa. Fahamkah engkau apakah itu sisa?

Mungkin aku terlampau kuat mendokong kebebasan pasaran dan tidak yakin akan tindakan-tindakan sosialis kurang percaya kepada dasar-dasar kebebasan. Tetapi, sekurang-kurangnya, apabila para sosialis ini berkata tentang pembasmian kemiskinan, mereka memberikan bantuan secara terus kepada yang miskin, bukan melalui yang kaya. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis itu menghadiahkan makanan yang segar kepada yang miskin, bukannya sisa. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis ini jujur dan tahu kebodohan di sebalik alasan-alasan serbuk-serbuk halus itu. Sekurang-kurangnya, para sosialis ini tahu apa itu penipuan apabila mereka melihatnya. Ini membolehkan aku menghormati para sosialis itu lebih dari mu. Kejujuran itu sendiri membolehkan aku menghormati para sosialis itu lebih dari mu.

“Ya. Kita mesti taat kepada pemimpin-pemimpin bangsa kita. Endahkanlah serangan-serangan itu. Melayu-melayu ini bagaikan kacang lupakan kulit. Mereka hanya berbohong tentang dakwaan penipuan itu. Tidak mungkin pemimpin-pemimpin kita menipu kita. Mustahil! Engkau pengkhianat! Pengkhianat bangsa! Kita perlu menyokong pemimpin-pemimpin kita walau apa pun!”

Jika ketaatan yang engkau minta adalah buta, maka banggalah aku digelar pengkhianat. Aku lebih rela engkau mempersoalkan ketaatanku daripada suara hati aku mempersoalkan kejujuranku. Kebenaran merentasi semua, termasuk Tuah.

Categories
Economics Liberty

[969] Of in honor of Milton Friedman

What most people really object to when they object to a free market is that it is so hard for them to shape it to their own will. The market gives people what the people want instead of what other people think they ought to want. At the bottom of many criticisms of the market economy is really lack of belief in freedom itself.

— Milton Friedman (July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006)

A brilliant mind is lost forever.

Categories
Economics

[966] Of a major slowdown in 2007?

If you think 2006 is bad because of higher energy prices, you probably haven’t heard about what’s in store for you in 2007. Consumption in the US is slowing down and there’s an expectation that the slowdown will affect world economy:

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 (Bernama) — The slowdown of consumer spending in the United States is expected to dampen overall global economic growth in 2008, says UBS Investment Bank’s deputy global economic head Paul Donovan.

“We are looking at a slower growth of the global economy, led by a slowdown in US consumer consumption,” he told reporters here Monday.

Donovan said the overall global economy is expected to be at 3.7 percent in 2008 compared with 4.5 percent last year.

The yesterday edition of The Edge has a few interesting articles in it. One of its reports highlights the slowdown of demand for electronics in the US. I’m unable to find the same article online but it’s titled “Who’s afraid of an electronics slowdown?” if you’re interested in searching for the article.

Worry not though because The Star has a report on similar issue:

KUALA LUMPUR: Anecdotally, equity analysts are seeing corporate book-to-build rates falling for electronic firms in the US, according to UBS Investment Bank managing director, deputy head of global economics Paul Donovan.

“Economies such as Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia, with substantial semiconductor sectors, can expect a slowdown in demand,” he told a press briefing yesterday.

You might notice that both Bernama and The Star reports quoted the same person from UBS. The Edge report however does not do the same. The Edge report was written by individuals from DBS. So, it’s not really an one-man opinion.

According to a graph attached to The Edge article, electronics makes up about 40% of Malaysian total export. Needless to say, the slowdown in demand will affect Malaysia.

Already, people are talking about a bearish 2007. Just check out this Mongan Stanley article:

Surely, there must be more to a US$46 trillion global economy than the American consumer and the Chinese producer. Not only is that the current verdict of financial markets, but it is also consistent with the sentiment I have been picking up from a broad cross-section of our clients — business executives, investors and senior government officials — as I travel the world this fall. While they concede the possibility that these two engines of global growth may, indeed, slow in 2007, there is a general belief that other economies are now perfectly capable of filling the void. Hope springs eternal that such a global decoupling would allow an increasingly vibrant global economy to keep growing while barely skipping a beat. My advice: Don’t count on it.

So, before 2007 comes, let’s live 2006 to its fullest – spend till you drop! If you haven’t dropped already, that is. LOL!

(It’s better start saving now though. But like all good things in economics, it depends on your personal preference — in this case, inter-temporal preference; i.e. interest rate — which is really hard to measure in spite of progress made in economics.)

p/s – I admit. The talk of a recession started way early in the year back in January when an inverted yield curve made an appearance.

Categories
Economics Environment

[964] Of human development index 2006, in graphics

You’ve heard how the Malaysian government pat itself at the back after the Human Development Report 2006 puts the country on par with the developed world. A Wikipedian has produced a map to put it into global perspective:

GNU FDL. Wikipedia, by Danutz.

Green is considered developed, yellow as developing while red signifies underdeveloping countries.

Within Southeast Asia, Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia are considered as the only developed countries in Southeast Asia. Though I don’t mind Singapore, the inclusion of Brunei and Malaysia does make me frown a bit. Nevertheless, sweet.

Before you jump around patting yourself at the back, the report mentions the state of water pollution in Malaysia (*.pdf):

Water quantity is not the only benchmark indicator for scarcity. Quality also has a bearing on the volume available for use—and in many of the most stressed water basins quality has been compromised by pollution. All of India’s 14 major river systems are badly polluted. In Delhi, to take one example, 200 million litres of raw sewage and 20 million litres of waste are dumped into the Yamuna River every day. In Malaysia and Thailand water pollution is so severe that rivers often contain 30—100 times the pathogen load permitted by health standards.