Category: Economics

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Economics

[1163] Of blog war between DeLong, The Street Light and Free Debate

Economists are taking sides. It starts at The Economist:

Despite a dispiriting start that saw the imposition of steel tariffs, the Bush administration has made great efforts on trade, pushing forward with both multilateral and bilateral deals. Its biggest goal, a substantive deal from the Doha round of World Trade Organisation negotiations, is currently on life support. But the administration has managed to secure a variety of smaller deals, while letting steel tariffs die a death at the hands of the WTO. Now even progress of that sort may end. [Trouble with trade. April 2 2007. The Economist]

The Street Light fires the first shot:

The Economist takes a massive dive today, as they continue to bizarrely and irresponsibly assume the best (or maybe “the least bad” would be more accurate) of the Bush administration. [The Economist on Bush on Trade. April 2 2007. The Street Light.]

The DeLong as reinforcement:

Kash Mansouri writes… [Kash Mansouri Is Very Unhappy with the Economist on Bush on Trade. April 3 2007. Grasping Reality with Both Hands]

Free Debate, the blog of the Economist, counterattacks:

BRAD DE LONG approvingly links Kash Mansouri, as he goes after us for claiming that the Bush administration has been relatively strong on free trade issues…

[…]

Despite the good professor’s endorsement, this take on the Bush administration’s trade policy is an implausibly uncharitable reading. I confess I am stonkered at the willingness to blame the Bush administration for being insufficiently active on Doha, since without the trade team’s efforts, Doha would not be on life support; it would be dead. The Bush administration did everything but a fan dance to lure all parties back to the table after the catastrophe at Cancun, and while it has not gone as far on farm subsidies as anyone would like, this is widely regarded as driven by (Democratic and Republican) farm interests in Congress, not some failure on the administration’s part. It does the administration no good to negotiate a treaty that can’t be signed.

[…]

The Bush administration is far from perfect on trade; I think particularly of its ridiculous stance on sugar ethanol. But the Bush administration is constrained by political realities. It has failed to take many damaging steps despite intense political pressure, such as declaring China a currency manipulator, and where it does impose anti-trade measures, they are pleasingly often something like the steel tariffs, which were guaranteed to be overruled by the WTO. And as Mr DeLong’s commenters point out, whatever Mr Bush’s trade sins, they are at this point thoroughly overshadowed by the Democratic protectionists currently flexing their muscles in the House. That’s less an endorsement of the Bush administration than a sad comment on the state of trade policy in the world today: the Bush administration is the best we’ve got. [Tu quoque. April 3 2007. Free Debate]

Would Mankiw and Krugman (or heh, by proxy, Mark Thoma) get a keg and make a merrier party?

Categories
Economics

[1161] Of why Malaysia is the center of Islamic banking

From the Wall Street Journal, via the Free Debate at the Economist:

Six years ago, a Malaysian bank asked 80 financial institutions in the Persian Gulf for help in selling a corporate bond that complied with Islamic prohibitions on interest.

All but one declined to participate, branding the novel security “haram,” or banned by Islam. Just a few months after the $150 million offering proved a success, however, many of these doubters shelved their theological qualms and came up with similar Islamic bonds of their own.

The global Islamic bond market that has developed since then is now worth an estimated $50 billion in securities outstanding, part of a burgeoning Islamic financial industry that’s fast approaching $1 trillion in assets. The torrents of cash that fuel this boom mostly come from the Persian Gulf’s oil bonanza. But it is distant Malaysia, thousands of miles to the east, that has emerged as the industry’s unlikely trailblazer.

“Malaysia is the catalyst for change,” says Faiz Azmi, Kuala Lumpur-based global head of Islamic finance at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accounting and consulting firm. Much of what is now considered conventional in the industry, he explains, was test-driven here first — often against the objections of conservative clerics in places like Saudi Arabia. Now such innovations are not just commonplace in the Gulf, but also have become an important revenue source for Western financial giants with Islamic-banking divisions, such as Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings PLC. [Malaysia Transforms Rules For Finance Under Islam. Wall Street Journal. April 4 2007]

I remember religious conservatives claiming that the stock market is haram as well.

Categories
Economics

[1160] Of why the Chinese economy will not be Malaysia’s savior in 2007

For those that read this blog, perhaps you have taken notice that I expect the Malaysian economy to take a dent this year. This is based on expectations that the US economy might experience an economy slowdown later in this year. With a slowdown in the US, demand for Malaysian goods in the US should go down. With worrying data on sub-prime mortgages, I do think the probability is little bit higher than otherwise. There are those that disagree with that prediction. One of the reasons cited to rebuke my prediction is the booming Chinese economy. I would like to prove how the Chinese economy, while important to the Malaysian export sector, is not as nearly as important as the US market.

Firstly, in 2006, the worth of Malaysian export to the US was approximately RM111 billion (roughly, USD32 billion). At the same time, export to the People’s Republic of China was less than half of that to the US. It stood at RM43 billion (roughly, USD12 billion). While the amount going to the Chinese market could increase — it increased by about 21% from 2005 — I do not think it is rational to expect the Chinese economy to be as important as the US market in 2007. Further, the given the size of the US economy, if a slowdown does occur, I do not think the Chinese economy will be able to cushion the entire fall in US demands for Malaysian goods. If the Chinese would to become our savior, each dollar fall in export to the US market needs to be compensated by a dollar worth of export to China or more, with all else being equal, of course.

Secondly, the argument that booming Chinese economy will prevent a slowdown in Malaysia ignores the fact that China is a major exporter to the US. The China exports USD288 billion. It has been estimated that 21% of Chinese export goes to the US in 2006; in the same year, about 19% of Malaysian export goes to the US. Needless to say, a US slowdown will affect China. Therefore, I doubt the Chinese would be our savior.

There are of course many other economies in this world and the US is just one of them. Yet, we would be digging our own grave if we underestimate the importance of the US economy to Malaysia. So, I hope that would put the booming Chinese economy argument to rest.

Categories
Economics

[1159] Of how to increase productivity of the civil service?

Talk, talk, talk…

PUTRAJAYA: Civil servants should reframe or condition their minds to work harder and longer to increase the country’s productivity and realise the National Mission.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said: “There is no substitution for hard work and it should become our goal and culture.”

“Work is a virtue and not a punishment,” he said while addressing the monthly gathering of staff and officials of the Prime Minister’s Department here on Monday.[DPM: Civil servants should work harder to increase productivity. The Star. April 2 2007]

There is no substitution for hard work. Empty words are no substitutes for real incentives either. Words, even if it comes from a supreme being, means nothing without incentives. Unless, the supreme being is the Invisible Hand. Yes, hang me for blasphemy but economics is the all-powerful being. And I could hear the supreme being laughing at the Deputy Prime Minister’s words.

Despite that, I concur with the Deputy Prime Minister; the civil service needs to increase its productivity. I asked the almighty, “What kind of incentive could back up the Deputy Prime Minister’s word and realize the dream of higher productivity?”

The supreme being, as merciful as he is wise, brought light to darkness. And the Lord God said, “Behold! Increase thy civil servants’ salary up to competitive market level and cut down thy gluttonous workforce. Once wages are at par or even surpass that of the private sector, thy would have every reason to expect the best of men and women on this earth to flock in volume to join the realm of public service. Lo! Higher productive. Have faith in me and we shall make fruitful of your faith. Disbelieve in me and we shall leave you at the mercy thy own foolishness.”

Listen to the all powerful being. For he has spoken; before that is done, words are just words!

Categories
Economics

[1158] Of keen Koreans and myopic Malaysians

In Malay, there is a saying that roughly goes “hendak seribu daya, tidak hendak seribu dalih“. It means where there is a will, there is a way. The proverb aptly describes the just recently agreed upon free trade deal between South Korea and the United States of America. The deal is agreed upon despite the fact that both parties missed the first two deadlines twice. As such, while “hendak seribu daya” belongs to the Korean, “tidak hendak seribu dalih” truly belongs to the Malaysian.

As reported by AP earlier:

The United States and South Korea successfully concluded a free trade agreement after almost 10 months of contentious negotiations, a U.S. official said Monday.

The deal, which requires legislative approval in both countries, is the biggest for the United States since the North American Free Trade Agreement signed in 1992 and ratified in 1993. It is the biggest ever for South Korea. [South Korea, U.S. Reach Free Trade Deal. AP via Forbes. April 2 2007.

With the deal, the South Koreans are probably going to move farther up the economic ladder, leaving behind Malaysia which is too scare to face the reality out there in the world. So far behind that we would, as our leaders ever so proudly declare, be first among third world nations.

We, unfortunately, seem to prefer to sit in the dark inside a box, ignoring the wave of changes outside the box. While South Korea will continue to roar, there we are, sleeping with policies crafted nearly half a century ago, thinking such outdated policies are our savior.

Between the world of wonders in one hand and world of stagnation in the other, Malaysia chooses the latter, thinking it is not worth it to be better tomorrow than what we are today. We would rather defend an outdated policy that has failed instead of creating new one that promises greater prosperity.

All is not lost though. Malaysia and the US plan to get back to the negotiation table in mid-April:

WASHINGTON, April 1 (Bernama) — Malaysia and the United States Saturday missed their deadline to submit a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to the US Congress that would have secured fast-track approval from Capitol Hill.

US Ambassador to Malaysia Christopher LaFleur said here Friday “although the two countries won’t make the deadline, what’s important is not the timing but the substance of the agreement.”

The goal of the two countries was “to reach a high quality FTA that would benefit both countries,” he said when addressing the Malaysian-American Society at the American University here.

[…]

Meanwhile, US-Malaysia trade talks which stalled in Sabah will be revived in Washington in mid-April. [Malaysia And US Miss FTA Deadline. Bernama. April 2007]

The ambassador is right in every sense. Nevertheless, with the Democrats in control of Congress, it will be harder to get a free trade agreement that comes close to the the spirit of free trade. Further, previously, Malaysia had great advantage over the US negotiators. Time was the leverage and time was on our side.

Alas, that window had come and passed. With the end of the TPA, Malaysia now truly stands alone against a giant, unless we jumpstart the Doha round.