Categories
Economics

[1175] Of supply-sider versus demand-sider, round n

Approximately 40 years after the debate began, the battle between supply-siders and the Keynesians (and to some extent, monetarists) continues.

It first came to surface with Bruce Barlett’s article at the NYT:

Today, hardly any economist believes what the Keynesians believed in the 1970s and most accept the basic ideas of supply-side economics — that incentives matter, that high tax rates are bad for growth, and that inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon. Consequently, there is no longer any meaningful difference between supply-side economics and mainstream economics. [How Supply-Side Economics Trickled Down. Bruce Bartlett. NYT April 6 2007]

Mark Thoma at the Economist’s View enlightens his readers on the difference between supply-side and New Keynesian schools…:

There is much more to say about all of this, I haven’t even mentioned New Classical models, but that will have to do for now. Summarizing, contrary to what is implied in Bruce Bartlett’s commentary, there are two distinct schools in economics, the RBC school and the NK school, and they have very different policy implications. Not everyone will agree with this, and that is the point I suppose, but I would argue that the mainstream view today is the NK model, though the RBC school has strong advocates and has made important contributions to our thinking (the long-run incentives Bruce Bartlett mentions are a good example). [Bruce Bartlett: How Supply-Side Economics Trickled Down. Economist’s View. April 6 2007]

…while DeLong gives a little bit summary of what is going on the next day:

Mark Thoma quotes large chunks of Bruce Bartlett’s views on supply-side economics… [A Very Good Conversation on Supply-Side Economics. Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Brad DeLong’s Semi-Daily Journal. April 7 2007]

Then, it is Paul Krugman at Economist’s View, defending Keynesianism:

The key thing is that good Keynesianism, as embodied even in undergrad textbooks of the time, was *perfectly OK*: Dornbusch and Fischer, 1978 edition, offered a description of what disinflation would look like that matches the experience of the 80s reasonably well, and the textbook does not seem all that dated even now. The idea that we needed a new doctrine to get our heads straight is just all wrong. [Supply-Side Economics: Paul Krugman Responds. Economist’s View. April 11 2007]

James Galbraith on his opposition to supply side and monetarism:

Brad DeLong’s summary of Bruce’s summary of our vulgar Keynesian policy beliefs is, here, reasonably close to the mark, except in one respect. No one in my circle doubted the capacity of monetary policy to crush the economy if pushed sufficiently far. Rather, we believed (accurately, as events would prove), that monetary policy worked against inflation *only* insofar as it brought on a brutal recession. We did not accept the monetarist/supply-side claim, which was presented at the start of the Reagan administration in official projections, that the trick could be pulled off without a recession. We were, of course, perfectly right about that.

Second, as a matter of economics, we thought that the combination of supply-side economics and monetarism was fundamentally incoherent — and we were well aware that the supply-siders and monetarists disagreed with each other more violently than they disagreed with us. As an anti-monetarist and one of the very few Democrats willing to criticize the sainted Paul Volcker, I found myself in rough alliance with the supply-siders more than once (and I have a few handwritten notes from Jack Kemp in my files somewhere). [Jamie Galbraith Speaks for the “Vulgar Keynesians”. Economist’s View. April12 2007]

Watch those comments at the Economist’s View.

Categories
Economics

[1174] Of straight from the broker: Dialog suspended!

I just received a call informing me that trading of Dialog Group Berhad in the Main Board has been suspended. I was a little bit panic upon hearing the news because I have some holding there. A search on the internet is unhelpful:

Trading in Dialog Group Bhd’s shares was voluntarily suspended early on April 12 ahead of an announcement to be made on the same day.

The share price had risen 12 sen to RM2.09 with 12.25 million shares done before it was suspended at 9.49am.

The company informed Bursa Malaysia Securities that it had requested for a suspension in the trading of its securities until 5pm on April 12. [Dialog suspended ahead of announcement. The Edge Daily. April 12 2007]

Rumor has it that it is going to be good news. As for me, I can only wait patiently.

Earlier, Dialog clinched several contracts earlier and that caused the share to jump for about 40% since late March 2007. I was one of probably many that reacted to the news and profited.

Categories
Economics

[1172] Of pressure for liberalization builds up

The International Herald Tribune, one of many, picks up a report by Associated Press:

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: Foreign funds inflows are keeping Malaysia’s markets on a long rally, but the money is staying in the country because of central bank restrictions and is starting to create economic imbalances, analysts say.

The local currency, the ringgit, is not allowed to be traded offshore, which means currency transactions are limited to within Malaysia. That has created a massive pool of money. [Awash in foreign funds, Malaysia faces economic imbalances over central bank restrictions. AP via IHT. April 8 2007]

Too much many chasing too few capital is a classic, or rather, a textbook recipe for inflation, as mentioned in the same report:

The excess cash in the country is leading to inflationary pressures as there is more money than before, chasing the same amount of goods. [Awash in foreign funds, Malaysia faces economic imbalances over central bank restrictions. AP via IHT. April 8 2007]

Further in the article:

Speculation is now mounting that Bank Negara might eventually lift a curb on the offshore trading of the ringgit that was imposed in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. [Awash in foreign funds, Malaysia faces economic imbalances over central bank restrictions. AP via IHT. April 8 2007]

It is time to dump our neomercantilist policy in favor of liberal ones.

Categories
Economics

[1171] Of remember Suria Capital?

Yesterday, it opened trading at 68 sen. Today, it closed at 92 sen.

Categories
Economics

[1169] Of market liberalization or government intervention?

There has been noticeable liberalization in the Malaysian economy. Statement by the Managing Director of Khazanah Nasional Berhad, Azman Mokhtar further affirms the trend of an increasingly liberal economy:

KUALA LUMPUR, March 28 (Bernama) — Khazanah Nasional Bhd is prepared to cut its stakes in government-linked companies (GLCs) in line with the government’s aspiration to reduce its stake in state-controlled companies.

Its managing director, Datuk Azman Mokhtar, said the government investment arm was committed to reducing its GLC stakes in a gradual and orderly manner. [Khazanah Ready To Cut Stakes In GLCs. Bernama. March 28 2007]

This is in line with sentiment expressed by the chairman of Khazanah, the Prime Minister himself:

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi recently announced that the government would reduce its stakes in GLCs that had high concentration of government linked ownership. [Khazanah Ready To Cut Stakes In GLCs. Bernama. March 28 2007]

However, there might more than market liberalization going on at the moment. I suspect so after reading several sources that seem to suggest that the government might be intervening with the market under the guise of liberalization.

At Bernama today:

KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 (Bernama) — The government will increasingly float the shares of government-linked companies (GLCs) to make the stock market more attractive and competitive, generating interest among foreign equity investors.

“The foreign investors are looking for liquidity and big companies in the market,” Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussin said, Tuesday. [Govt To Increasingly Float Shares Of GLCs On Local Bourse. Bernama. April 10 2007]

How could the government intervene in the market through the floating of GLCs’ shares?

A short visit to how a central bank operates might shed some light on the matter.

The central bank to some extent could influence the prevailing interest rate. It does that by buying or selling money. Keep in mind that money comes in many forms and does not necessarily comes in cash.

In order to raise the interest rate, the central bank buys, or perhaps more precisely, hoards money in the market. Once that is done, the quantity of money in the market is reduced and hence, the interest rate goes up. If the central bank would like to decrease rate, it just floods the market with money by selling it. This is a rough explanation but for our discussion, it suffices.

If that is clear, let us consider the equity market. If the government wishes to increase activity, it increases liquidity by releasing its shares to the market. If it would like to curb activity in the market for whatsoever reasons, it buys shares. Instead of a central bank, we have Khanazah, the investment arm of the government.

If that is clear too, it is time to put all that to perspective.

Not too long ago, the Prime Minister said confidently the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index might hit the now famous and magical 1,350 mark. A few days after he shared his opinion, through sheer luck perhaps, the market plunged spectacularly. While the fall was temporary, that was all it took to make the Prime Minister looked bad.

Now, consider the Prime Minister’s expectation and the recent statement on floating GLC’s shares.

If I were the Prime Minister, it would be tempting to act towards the 1,350 goal. One easy way to achieve that goal is by increasing the market liquidity by selling GLC’s shares. Or, more eloquently, in Liar’s Poker:

One trader remembers that “Lewie would say he thought the market was going up, and buy a hundred million [dollar-worth of] bonds. The market would start to go down. So Lewie would buy two billion more bonds, and of course the market would then go up. After he had driven the market up, Lewie would turn to me and say, ‘See I told you it was going up’…” [Liar’s Poker. Michael Lewis]

Hence, the possibility of government interference in the market. Of course, it is not intervention if the reduction of government influence in GLCs is done genuinely for the sake of liberalization.

But the question remains: are we seeing real liberalization or is it just a convenient cover to self-fulfill a Notradamus-style prophecy (oops, I mean expectation…)?