Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1307] Of lesson from Turkey

One of many lessons that could be learned from Turkey: take care of the economy and the economy will take care of you, perhaps, regardless of your leaning.

The breadth of Mr Erdogan’s success is best illustrated by the new political map: nearly all of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including seven mainly Kurdish ones, are painted in the AK party’s yellow hue. Female representation in parliament doubled with some 50 women winning seats—more than ever before. The party’s liberalising political reforms, which persuaded EU leaders to begin long-delayed membership talks with Turkey in 2005, played a part in the victory. But above all it was the government’s economic performance—7.3% average annual growth, record foreign investment and lower inflation—that won the day. [The burden of victory. The Economist. July 26 2007]

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1306] Of discretionary and rule-based policies

What is the difference between calvinball and a game of chess?

The centrality of a ball in the former and the absence of such sphere in the latter is one of the differences. The main difference however is not so obvious; it is the ever-changing rules of calvinball. Whatever Calvin changes his mind, so do the rules. In fact, with such discretionary-based game, there is nothing that could prevent calvinball from becoming a game of chess. In contrast, it is a faux pas for one to change the rules of chess.

Policymaking could be observed within a spectrum of consistencies or rather, a gradual duality of flexibility and consistency; at one end, it is fully rule-based while the other is fully discretionary. Any successful society, organization or entity, even individual, would find the best policy fit for its situation. As I gain greater experience from my employment and life in general, I have come to especially appreciate the need to strike a balance within the consistency spectrum.

Discretionary policies are best whenever flexibility is valued highly. It frees an entity from whatever constraints associated with rules, save exogenous laws such as physics and economics. It provides a policymaker the freest of hands to wrestle any situation.

If consistency is desired instead, then rule-based policy is the option. While it may limit choices given a situation, it helps in building reputation. Such reputation is important for any law, rule or regulation to be respected. Furthermore, such policies make auditing processes possible. On top of that, consistent policies manage expectation and thus, making planning possible.

In contrast, discretionary policies will change every factor a plan depends on and ruin expectation. When the only expectation is no expectation, planning is an useless exercise.

Perhaps, the current and the last Malaysian administrations — Mahathir and Abdullah administration — illustrate the consistency spectrum within local context. Mahathir administration as far as I can remember was decisive, that whatever was said was done, except, maybe during the Asian Financial Crisis when Malaysia reneged from its payment commitment. Under Abdullah administration (or perhaps more popularly, the Badawi administration), there is too much second guessing being done. Few examples are the “scenic bridge“, the double tracking project and, arguably, matters concerning liberty. This liberal use of discretionary policies might contribute to the declining reputation of the current administration among certain quarters, if not the Malaysian society in general; that words mean increasingly little.

In the realm of politics, compared to rule-based, I am inclined to say that discretionary policies as a set is the favorite tool of any populist. Like As Heraclitus the Greek philosopher once wrote, the only constant is change; a populist has no opinion of his own but instead, rely on the mob.

This may not need an acute observation and I may not be the first to notice this but I have discovered that an established organization usually is guided with procedures that it takes an expert to know every nook and cranny of the company to maneuver. The atmosphere is far simpler in an entrepreneurial setup. Anything could be done here and now and all that is required is willpower.

As a young participant in the labor market, rule-based policies could be excessively suffocating. At each juncture, rules have to be observed and sometimes, one is not at liberty to choose. An organization that is based purely on discretionary policies on the other hand could be intimidating. There is little guidance in a discretionary-dominated entity while ruled-based entity offers one a manual to navigate through corporate maze.

Due to the nature of each policy type, rules encourage stability while discretionary policies encourage creativity, tolerate or accommodative of change. Both policies have a myriad of other effects but at the moment, I am convinced that the two are the most important characteristics of the policies.

Rules themselves come through exploration of ideas. Rules themselves are symptoms of knowledge. When a society has a certain set of knowledge, it no longer becomes worthwhile to explore the same idea all over again, discounting pedagogic purposes. To clearly express this idea, an example is in order. Take classical mechanics for instance. Usually, it is cheaper to simply accept the assertions made by the relevant laws rather than trying to discover the same laws over and over again through trial and error or simply extrapolation. After all, it took hundred of years for the field to be where it is now and alas, we as mortals do not have hundred of years to make the same discovery; having an apple falling down on one’s head everyday of every year might be a painful experience.

Some rules however are based on false, or limited explored ideas or assumptions which might include superstition and religion. Certain ideas become obsolete as new knowledge offer new better methods to deal with old problems. This is where freedom unfettered by rules — rules that suffer from status quo bias — has a large role to play. Alas, identifying such rules is hard.

Reiterating my words, a successful society has a certain mix of rule and discretionary-based policies. The right mix conserve true knowledge while weeding out false ones as well as adding new knowledge to our knowledge tank.

How does one get to that perfect fit?

Now, that is a more interesting question but harder to answer.

Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1302] Of hail trade! Hail the NYT!

Hail to the NYT for staying with rationality, instead of populism.

Trade has been getting an unfair beating from Democrats. Party leaders backpedaled from their agreement with the White House to approve free trade pacts with Peru and Panama and are opposing the agreement with South Korea. They also refused to extend so-called fast track authority, which guarantees a simple up or down vote on trade deals. And Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — playing to the campaign crowds — are backing legislation that would punish China for manipulating its currency and, not incidentally, could trigger an ugly trade war.

Yet for all their concern about globalization’s impact on American workers, Democrats are going after the wrong targets. It is true that wages for most workers are going nowhere. Many fear for their jobs. But, as many centrist Democrats have argued for years, throttling trade would end up hurting a lot more people than it helped. [The Case for Trade. NYT. July 27 2007]

I however am not quite certain what is implied with this statement:

Research suggests that trade inspires less protectionist feelings in countries with bigger governments and bigger social safety nets. Promoting trade and helping America’s workers are two ideas that Democrats should get behind. [The Case for Trade. NYT. July 27 2007]

Categories
Economics

[1300] Of the rate stays at 3.50%

In the US, a lot of people pay a lot of attention to what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has to say. In Malaysia, I do not feel that atmosphere whatever the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes. Partly because of that, the Malaysian economic scene is so boring compared to the US. The local economic discourse is limited to populism and hardly receives the academic attention economic news receive in the US. So, let us try to create that atmosphere here instead of complaining what a boring country we have. Be proactive baby!

First off, the MPC seems to have a template for the announcement regarding the overnight lending policy. If I may add, just like the FOMC. The first paragraph goes straight to the point.

In May:

At its meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.50 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

At its meeting today, Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.50 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

So it stays. What a boring comment. They need to put in some spice into it, put in some mystery, like what Greenspan did, you know?

The second paragraph talks about Malaysian economic growth in general.

In May:

Despite the less favourable external environment which has had a moderating effect on Malaysia’s export growth, strong domestic demand has sustained the growth of the Malaysian economy. The public sector has also had an important positive impact on domestic economic activity. The Malaysian economy is therefore expected to sustain steady growth over the medium term. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

The overall growth of the Malaysian economy in the first half of the year has remained favourable with the slower growth in the external sector being balanced by stronger growth in domestic demand. During the second half of 2007, the growth momentum of the economy is expected to strengthen. Recent trade data suggest that the sustained growth in Malaysia’s major trading partner economies is starting to provide support to export growth. This will complement the robust growth in both domestic consumption and investment that is expected to be sustained for the rest of the year. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

The July statement seems to be more bullish in future prospect of the export component of the GDP. Concerning the export component, I wonder if it is caused by diversification. Also, I could not help but notice the word “public sector” in the May statement. That “public sector” probably refers to government spending. I also wonder if that “domestic demand” is caused by government spending.

Next paragraph clearly talks of the greatest enemy of most central bankers: inflation.

In May:

Inflation during the first four months of 2007 averaged 2.4% and has continued its downward trend. Going forward, the continued high prices of commodities and agricultural products, and the rise in global food prices could have implications for domestic food prices and overall inflation. Taking into account these developments and the low inflation prevailing currently, the expectations are that the average rate of inflation for 2007 would be within the projected range of 2-2.5 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

Inflation moderated in the first half of 2007 to a level of 1.4% in June and averaged 2% for the period as a whole. During the second half of 2007, inflation may edge up due to both domestic and external factors, but the average rate of inflation for 2007 is expected to be at the lower end of the projected range of 2-2.5 percent. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

Considering the second as well as third paragraph of the July statement, it sounds like the policymakers are confused. Good, bad, going up, going down… Maybe, the word guarded celebration is in order. Or maybe, neutral bias?

I feel like they are mirroring their counterparts at the Federal Reserve, with a hint of oxymoron.

The last paragraph tries to describe the future.

In May:

Given the medium term outlook for inflation and economic growth, the current level of the policy rate remains appropriate. In view of the uncertainty in the external environment, developments in the international economy would be monitored closely. The future stance of monetary policy would be determined by Bank Negara Malaysia’s assessment of new data and information and its implications on the prospects for price stability and economic growth. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. May 28 2007]

In July:

The future stance of monetary policy would be determined by Bank Negara Malaysia’s assessment of new data and information and their implications on the medium-term prospects for price stability and economic growth. [Monetary Policy Statement. Bank Negara. July 24 2007]

In May, the confusion is pronounced. In July, the explicit signal for uncertainty is gone. Odd. Does that mean Bank Negara feels the economy is growing at a good pace while inflation is comfortably low?

Categories
Economics Liberty Society

[1299] Of don’t tread on me

Public domain.

Dedicated to Raja Petra Kamarudin, and liberty at large.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — pardon the low frequency of post. Work now demands extra labor.

But do not forget, DAP is organizing a forum on Negara Islam on Thursday, July 26 2007 at the Chinese Assembly Hall in Kuala Lumpur at 1930 hours.

Later on July 30 2007, Prof K.S. Jomo will be speaking at a talk at the same place:

Malaysia Economic Development Since Merdeka: Lessons for the Present and Future

Date: 30 JULY 2007 (Monday)

Time: 8.00PM-10.00PM

Venue: Kuala Lumpur & Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall, No. 1, Jalan Maharajarela, 50150 Kuala Lumpur (Near Maharajarela Monorail Station)

Guest Speaker: Prof. KS Jomo

Jomo K. S. has been Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development in the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since January 2005. He was Professor in the Applied Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya until November 2004, and was on the Board of the United Nations Research Institute on Social Development (UNRISD), Geneva (2002-4). He is Founder Chair of IDEAs, International Development Economics Associates ( www.ideaswebsite.org)

Born in Penang, Malaysia, in 1952, Jomo studied at the Penang Free School (PFS, 1964-6), Royal Military College (RMC, 1967-70), Yale (1970-3) and Harvard (1973-7). He has taught at Science University of Malaysia (USM, 1974), Harvard (1974-5), Yale (1977), National University of Malaysia (UKM, 1977-82), University of Malaya (since 1982), and Cornell (1993). He has also been a Visiting Fellow at Cambridge University (1987-8; 1991-2) and was Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore (2004).

He has authored over 35 monographs, edited over 50 books and translated 11 volumes besides writing many academic papers and articles for the media. He is on the editorial boards of several learned journals. Some of his most recent book publications include Malaysia’s Political Economy (with E. T. Gomez), Tigers in Trouble, Rents, Rent-Seeking and Economic Development: Theory and the Asian Evidence (with Mushtaq Khan)

Abstract: Malaysia as a nation turns into 50 this year. In commemoration of 50 years of nationhood, there has never a better time for Malaysians to reflect on the present, its origins in the past and what the future holds. The economic crisis that began in 1997 has reduced growth rates since.

Ten years after the crisis, how far has Malaysia recovered? What is the present situation of the Malaysian economic? Is FDI the solution for Malaysia’s economic stagnation? All these questions and many more will be addressed by Prof. Jomo. This discussion should open a debate on our shared future as a nation.

Language: English

ALL ARE WELCOME!