Categories
Economics History & heritage

[1347] Of Kant’s perpetual peace

Immanuel Kant wrote that free trade creates perpetual peace. Under the mercantilist era which he had lived in, the truth behind such idea cannot be any clearer.

Mercantilism holds that trade is a zero-sum game with constant volume of global trade. As such, the most prosperous country is the country with the most supply of capital. To a mercantilist, this means export should be encouraged while import should be actively discouraged. One may recognize this as some sort of protectionism.

In a world dominated by mercantilists, low volume of trade would be a norm as each and every mercantilist seeks to accumulate vast amount of capital. This is so because everybody refrains from buying anything from anybody. Trade meanwhile is dependent on the act of buying and selling; without either one, there can be no trade. Mercantilism necessarily limits resources any mercantilist state could muster to only those found within its boundaries.

Individuals demand so many things and not all of those things could be obtained locally. Without trade, demand would be unfulfilled, turning life duller than it should be. Mercantilists of the past realized this and sought to solve it by expanding its boundaries; they internalized resources into their boundaries. In doing so, mercantilists eliminated the need for import and possibly maintained a positive trade balance. This requirement for expansion is one of many factors that fueled colonialism and wars in the past.

As demand becomes more sophisticated, it becomes impossible for local industry to satisfy local demand in the absence of trade. Boundaries of mercantilist states thus require further expansion to internalize more resources to satisfy greater demand. In the end translates into one conclusion: the biggest state, all else being equal, would have the greatest amount of resources. Britain of old, the great mercantilist state, was well on its way to be the largest empire the world has ever seen.

Alas, the Earth is only so big. Continuous expansion eventually will bring mercantilists to each other door step and finally, in absence of trade, the only way to obtain what a mercantilist state needs is by expanding its boundaries into other states’ borders. This typically means war and wars involving mercantilist states did happen from the 16th to the 18th century.

The madness brought by mercantilism was only suppressed after the rationale of trade overwhelmed the prevailing thinking in the late 18th century. Through trade, various states can obtain what it requires without the need to expand its boundaries, without going to war. Sooner or later, trading states will depend on each other to achieve prosperity. To quote Kant:

By virtue of their mutual interest does nature unite people against violence and war… the spirit of trade cannot coexist with war, and sooner or later this spirit dominates every people. For among all those powers… that belong to a nation, financial power may be the most reliable in forcing nations to pursue the noble cause of peace… and wherever in the world war threatens to break out, they will try to head it off through mediation, just as if they were permanently leagued for this purpose.

Categories
Economics

[1337] Of Fed cuts discount rate!

The Fed, in a surprise announcement in Washington, lowered the so-called discount rate by 0.5 percentage point, to 5.75 percent. Policy makers dropped language indicating their bias toward fighting inflation, and instead highlighted a rising threat to economic growth. [Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75% to Ease Credit Crunch (Update4). Bloomberg. August 17 2007]

Economic slowdown has taken over inflation as the greater concern!

I cannot wait to see what will happen to the federal fund rate in about a month time! By the way the market is reacting, the FFR might stay unchanged though.

It is worth noting that the T-bills yield curve is slight inverted in the short run and pretty much flat in the long run.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — amid the cut, dissent emerges. The reason for dissent against rate cut revolves around the economic concept of moral hazard.

The subprime crisis is really created by borrowers lending to those that do not have the credit rating to borrow money. With the Fed coming out to bail a risky market, it only encourages risky activities to continue because lenders know that the Fed provides them with a safety net. This is why bail out is usually frowned upon.

Normatively, I am against rate cut but a rate cut is what I am expecting as far as the subprime mortgage episode is concerned.

This issue surrounding moral hazard might prevent the FFR from declining next month. So, the roller coaster ride might not end just yet.

Categories
Economics Society

[1335] Of now, moving on to something more important than Negarakuku…

I find it amazing how too many people are preoccupied with Namewee’s Negarakuku, especially but those that want punishment to be brought upon him for whatever he did. The thing is, he did nothing but criticized the state of our society. His action affects nothing but a lot of people’s ego, being too sensitive to criticism. It’s okay to disagree with any criticism but demanding a person to be silence by force because we disagree with him?

So much for a matured society.

Islamists and nationalists, the Cabinet even, are harping on the issue so hard as if there is nothing else that is important, more deserving of their attention. To me, the issue surrounding fiasco surrounding the Port Klang Free Zone, is much more crucial to our society.

And here is something that affects a lot of people but receives too little attention as well. According to last week edition of HSBC Research, quoted by The Edge, total trade for June 2007 is 0.9% lower than a year ago. It is pretty much attributed to a 22% drop in export to the US.

From the Malaysian Department of Statistics:

In June 2007, external trade data posted a surplus of RM8.7 billion as compared with RM8.2 billion in the same month of 2006. A growth of 5.6% or RM458.1 million in the trade surplus was due to a lower decline in exports of 0.4% or RM186.8 million vis-a-vis a higher decline in imports of 1.6% or RM645.0 million. Total imports and exports for the month were valued at RM40.3 billion and RM49.0 billion respectively as against RM41.0 billion (imports) and RM49.2 billion (exports) a year ago. [Malaysian external trade statistics, June 2007. Malaysian Department of Statistics. August 9 2007]

On the surface, several factors could be attributed to the fall in export. One is the fall in demand for electronics in the US, which itself could be attributed to the current slowdown in the US economy. Second is the appreciating MYR against the USD.

I however unable to find a reason for a fall in import. It might be due to slowdown in consumption component of the GDP which could signal an economic slowdown. I have yet to see a data on consumption to strengthen the base of my suspicion.

Regardless, issue of subprime mortgage in the US brought the Fed to do a helicopter drop. Several others central banks went to do the same thing in hope to increase market liquidity. In fact, increasing number of people now believe a rate cut is coming.

A rate cut would signal this: a transfer of focus from inflation to economic slowdown; there are few that prefer to use the word recession instead. The FOMC convened earlier this month and decided to keep the federal fund rate untouched, apparently confused whether the economy was growing or shrinking.

Given how important the US economy is to the Malaysian economy, I expect a dent though government spending via the Ninth Malaysia Plan might take up the slack. Keynesians would love that possibility.

As for the election, well, suffice to say, I think the government of the day has missed the chance to dissolve the Parliament during a time of exuberance. From now onwards, only uncertainty remains.

Categories
Economics Environment Science & technology

[1333] Of less trees means less cloudiness

A recent observation in Australia suggests that cloud formation is related to vegetation:

A fence built to prevent rabbits from entering the Australian outback has unintentionally allowed scientists to study the effects of land use on regional climates.

The rabbit-proof fence — or bunny fence — in Western Australia was completed in 1907 and stretches about 2,000 miles. It acts as a boundary separating native vegetation from farmland. Within the fence area, scientists have observed a strange phenomenon: above the native vegetation, the sky is rich in rain-producing clouds. But the sky on the farmland side is clear. [At Australia’s Bunny Fence, Variable Cloudiness Prompts Climate Study. New York Times. August 14 2007]

That may not sound as astounding as seeing a pig flying but wait till you see this picture:

NYT. Fair use. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/14/science/earth/14fenc.html

And what is so interesting about this finding?

Dr. Nair speculates that increases in the world’s population will prompt the clearing of more land to increase food production. But he wonders whether, in the long run, “we will reach a point of land clearing that will diminish food production,” because rainfall has decreased. [At Australia’s Bunny Fence, Variable Cloudiness Prompts Climate Study. New York Times. August 14 2007]

Can anybody say decreasing returns to scale?

Categories
Economics

[1332] Of is this privatization or nationalization?

With the proliferation of government intervention in the market nowadays, the terms privatization and nationalization can be confusing. For instance, PNB which has expressed its interest to take MIDF private:

PETALING JAYA: Pemodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) has proposed to take private Malaysian Industrial Development Finance Bhd (MIDF) by buying the remaining 79.98% shares it does not own for RM1.90 each. [PNB offers RM1.90 to take MIDF private. The Star. August 14 2007]

Take private?

PNB is no private equity entity. Instead, PNB is an investment firm ultimately wholly-owned by the government of Malaysia through Yayasan Pelaburan Bumiputra. Wouldn’t that mean this exercise would actually nationalize MIDF?