Categories
Economics

[1362] Of another bad news for Malaysian export-driven economy

As Malaysian electrical and electronics export takes a hit from slower US demand, news from the third largest market for Malaysian export might not be welcomed:

TOKYO – Japan’s economy contracted in the April-June quarter, the government said Monday in a revision of its preliminary estimate that it had expended.

The latest data suggest that the world’s second largest economy – which has been recovering in recent years – may be suffering a slowdown in its pace of growth, making it harder for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates anytime soon. [Japan Says Economy Contracted in 2Q. Associated Press via Forbes. September 10 2007]

Categories
Economics

[1358] Mengenai Bajet 2008

Saya amat membenci perkataan bajet dan lebih mengemari akan perkataan belanjawan. Itu bagaimanapun adalah satu perkara yang remeh dan mungkin hanya mengambarkan keadaan terkini dunia bahasa Melayu. Tiada apa yang perlu digusarkan.

Bacaan pertama belanjawan negara untuk tahun 2008 akan dibentangkan di Dewan Rakyat Jumaat ini. Saya ingin bertanya, apa pendapat anda akan belanjawan kali ini?

Saya pasti ia akan berputar kepada satu paksi: pilihanraya. Oleh itu, investment horizon kerajaan pimpinan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkemungkinan akan berjangka pendek bertujuan untuk mempergunakan satu kelemahan kebanyakan manusia: tidak ramai mempunyai kebolehan untuk melihat disebalik bukit, walau serendah mana bukit itu.

Defisit perbelanjaan mungkin akan bertambah melalui perbelanjaan kerajaan dalam usaha untuk mengatasi kelemahan komponen eksport bersih yang disebabkan oleh tahap kecerdasan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat yang menurun serta penambahan nilai ringgit Malaysia berbanding dolar Amerika. Cukai pula mungkin akan dipotong, sekaligus memperkuatkan lagi kemungkinan pertambahan defisit perbelanjaan. Saya rasa, Keynes akan tersenyum seketika, jika ini benar.

Tetapi, kebolehan mendengar mungkin satu kebolehan yang semua individu yang rasional perlu ada. Mari kita berlaku adil dan dengar apa yang Perdana Menteri mahu dilakukan untuk tahun 2008.

Categories
Economics Environment

[1350] Of macaques pose a question on asymmetric information

I might be agreeable to the lifting of ban on the capture and export of macaques in Peninsular Malaysia. The lift of the ban — which was set in place in 1984 to combat the declining of the primate population — was announced by the Minister Azmi Khalid just last month:

PUTRAJAYA, Aug 17 (Bernama) — Malaysia has lifted the ban on the export of long-tailed macaques, better known as long-tailed monkeys, in an effort to reduce the population of these primates in urban areas, Natural Resources and Environment Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid announced Friday. [Ministry Lifts Ban On Export Of Monkeys. Bernama. August 17 2007]

But I have a few questions and one of them concerns this:

He said the ministry had done a non-detrimental study before lifting the ban and it had been decided that only monkeys in urban areas be caught and exported. [Ministry Lifts Ban On Export Of Monkeys. Bernama. August 17 2007]

How does the authority plan to immediately ascertain the origin of any caged macaques at the gates of Peninsular Malaysia?

It seems that the ministry might face a problem known in economics as asymmetric information.

One solution to this problem is to randomly tag members of the macaque community with passive RFID, urban and wild. Done properly, a simple act of sampling will reasonably solve the problem. I will leave the question on the size of the tagging operation to real statisticians. My statistics skill is deteriorating after being out of college for too long.

Categories
Economics History & heritage

[1347] Of Kant’s perpetual peace

Immanuel Kant wrote that free trade creates perpetual peace. Under the mercantilist era which he had lived in, the truth behind such idea cannot be any clearer.

Mercantilism holds that trade is a zero-sum game with constant volume of global trade. As such, the most prosperous country is the country with the most supply of capital. To a mercantilist, this means export should be encouraged while import should be actively discouraged. One may recognize this as some sort of protectionism.

In a world dominated by mercantilists, low volume of trade would be a norm as each and every mercantilist seeks to accumulate vast amount of capital. This is so because everybody refrains from buying anything from anybody. Trade meanwhile is dependent on the act of buying and selling; without either one, there can be no trade. Mercantilism necessarily limits resources any mercantilist state could muster to only those found within its boundaries.

Individuals demand so many things and not all of those things could be obtained locally. Without trade, demand would be unfulfilled, turning life duller than it should be. Mercantilists of the past realized this and sought to solve it by expanding its boundaries; they internalized resources into their boundaries. In doing so, mercantilists eliminated the need for import and possibly maintained a positive trade balance. This requirement for expansion is one of many factors that fueled colonialism and wars in the past.

As demand becomes more sophisticated, it becomes impossible for local industry to satisfy local demand in the absence of trade. Boundaries of mercantilist states thus require further expansion to internalize more resources to satisfy greater demand. In the end translates into one conclusion: the biggest state, all else being equal, would have the greatest amount of resources. Britain of old, the great mercantilist state, was well on its way to be the largest empire the world has ever seen.

Alas, the Earth is only so big. Continuous expansion eventually will bring mercantilists to each other door step and finally, in absence of trade, the only way to obtain what a mercantilist state needs is by expanding its boundaries into other states’ borders. This typically means war and wars involving mercantilist states did happen from the 16th to the 18th century.

The madness brought by mercantilism was only suppressed after the rationale of trade overwhelmed the prevailing thinking in the late 18th century. Through trade, various states can obtain what it requires without the need to expand its boundaries, without going to war. Sooner or later, trading states will depend on each other to achieve prosperity. To quote Kant:

By virtue of their mutual interest does nature unite people against violence and war… the spirit of trade cannot coexist with war, and sooner or later this spirit dominates every people. For among all those powers… that belong to a nation, financial power may be the most reliable in forcing nations to pursue the noble cause of peace… and wherever in the world war threatens to break out, they will try to head it off through mediation, just as if they were permanently leagued for this purpose.

Categories
Economics

[1337] Of Fed cuts discount rate!

The Fed, in a surprise announcement in Washington, lowered the so-called discount rate by 0.5 percentage point, to 5.75 percent. Policy makers dropped language indicating their bias toward fighting inflation, and instead highlighted a rising threat to economic growth. [Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75% to Ease Credit Crunch (Update4). Bloomberg. August 17 2007]

Economic slowdown has taken over inflation as the greater concern!

I cannot wait to see what will happen to the federal fund rate in about a month time! By the way the market is reacting, the FFR might stay unchanged though.

It is worth noting that the T-bills yield curve is slight inverted in the short run and pretty much flat in the long run.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — amid the cut, dissent emerges. The reason for dissent against rate cut revolves around the economic concept of moral hazard.

The subprime crisis is really created by borrowers lending to those that do not have the credit rating to borrow money. With the Fed coming out to bail a risky market, it only encourages risky activities to continue because lenders know that the Fed provides them with a safety net. This is why bail out is usually frowned upon.

Normatively, I am against rate cut but a rate cut is what I am expecting as far as the subprime mortgage episode is concerned.

This issue surrounding moral hazard might prevent the FFR from declining next month. So, the roller coaster ride might not end just yet.