Categories
Economics Politics & government

[1364] Of off with fuel subsidy, but what about election?

At 10 per cent — the official estimate — of the fuel subsidy, the Economic Planning Unit in 2005 characterised the illegal outflow as “akin to giving to foreigners the subsidies intended for Malaysians”. Now that our neighbours have reduced their fuel subsidies, it is perhaps time to stop subsidising them and to take away the incentive to smuggle out our diesel by aligning our prices closer to theirs. [Narrowing differentials. New Straits Times. September 11 2007]

Finally, it sinks in one of the local mainstream media. But does this mean there would be a fuel price hike in the future?

I refuse to believe that the NST says such thing out of “mere” economic rationale. The possibility of somebody higher up told them so simply appeals to me. The NST is a government’s mouthpiece after all. If that is so, it would definitely be an odd move however since the general election expected to be just around corner. Or maybe, election is not so close after all!

The recent budget in my opinion itself might not be as populist as the previous ones, despite what I wrote preemptively. Hmm…

I have stated earlier that the government of the day has missed its chance to ride on positive sentiment due to slowing economy. There has been talk of having the election in November but given the latest news from Japan.

If I were BN, I would somewhat favor to have the general election at later dates, perhaps after the release of economic reports for the third or even the fourth quarter are out. I would ride out the bad news and wait for a better time. Maybe, after Chinese New Year in February when economic activities, local and abroad, are up due to seasonal demand. Therefore, from being too late, November now seems too early.

Categories
Economics

[1363] Of a sensible policy on electricity

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 11 (Bernama) — Independent power producers (IPPs) could end up supplying power to an electricity exchange instead of directly to Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) once the current power purchase agreements (PPAs) expire, said Minister of Energy, Water and Communications Datuk Seri Dr Lim Keng Yaik.

[…]

Dr Lim said under the proposed exchange, TNB would buy electricity from the most cost-effective power producers. [Govt Mulls Electricity Exchange For TNB. Bernama. September 11 2007.

I am excited because this suggestion provides a basis for a better policy compared to what Malaysia is having at the moment.

Categories
Economics

[1362] Of another bad news for Malaysian export-driven economy

As Malaysian electrical and electronics export takes a hit from slower US demand, news from the third largest market for Malaysian export might not be welcomed:

TOKYO – Japan’s economy contracted in the April-June quarter, the government said Monday in a revision of its preliminary estimate that it had expended.

The latest data suggest that the world’s second largest economy – which has been recovering in recent years – may be suffering a slowdown in its pace of growth, making it harder for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates anytime soon. [Japan Says Economy Contracted in 2Q. Associated Press via Forbes. September 10 2007]

Categories
Economics

[1358] Mengenai Bajet 2008

Saya amat membenci perkataan bajet dan lebih mengemari akan perkataan belanjawan. Itu bagaimanapun adalah satu perkara yang remeh dan mungkin hanya mengambarkan keadaan terkini dunia bahasa Melayu. Tiada apa yang perlu digusarkan.

Bacaan pertama belanjawan negara untuk tahun 2008 akan dibentangkan di Dewan Rakyat Jumaat ini. Saya ingin bertanya, apa pendapat anda akan belanjawan kali ini?

Saya pasti ia akan berputar kepada satu paksi: pilihanraya. Oleh itu, investment horizon kerajaan pimpinan Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkemungkinan akan berjangka pendek bertujuan untuk mempergunakan satu kelemahan kebanyakan manusia: tidak ramai mempunyai kebolehan untuk melihat disebalik bukit, walau serendah mana bukit itu.

Defisit perbelanjaan mungkin akan bertambah melalui perbelanjaan kerajaan dalam usaha untuk mengatasi kelemahan komponen eksport bersih yang disebabkan oleh tahap kecerdasan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat yang menurun serta penambahan nilai ringgit Malaysia berbanding dolar Amerika. Cukai pula mungkin akan dipotong, sekaligus memperkuatkan lagi kemungkinan pertambahan defisit perbelanjaan. Saya rasa, Keynes akan tersenyum seketika, jika ini benar.

Tetapi, kebolehan mendengar mungkin satu kebolehan yang semua individu yang rasional perlu ada. Mari kita berlaku adil dan dengar apa yang Perdana Menteri mahu dilakukan untuk tahun 2008.

Categories
Economics Environment

[1350] Of macaques pose a question on asymmetric information

I might be agreeable to the lifting of ban on the capture and export of macaques in Peninsular Malaysia. The lift of the ban — which was set in place in 1984 to combat the declining of the primate population — was announced by the Minister Azmi Khalid just last month:

PUTRAJAYA, Aug 17 (Bernama) — Malaysia has lifted the ban on the export of long-tailed macaques, better known as long-tailed monkeys, in an effort to reduce the population of these primates in urban areas, Natural Resources and Environment Minister Datuk Seri Azmi Khalid announced Friday. [Ministry Lifts Ban On Export Of Monkeys. Bernama. August 17 2007]

But I have a few questions and one of them concerns this:

He said the ministry had done a non-detrimental study before lifting the ban and it had been decided that only monkeys in urban areas be caught and exported. [Ministry Lifts Ban On Export Of Monkeys. Bernama. August 17 2007]

How does the authority plan to immediately ascertain the origin of any caged macaques at the gates of Peninsular Malaysia?

It seems that the ministry might face a problem known in economics as asymmetric information.

One solution to this problem is to randomly tag members of the macaque community with passive RFID, urban and wild. Done properly, a simple act of sampling will reasonably solve the problem. I will leave the question on the size of the tagging operation to real statisticians. My statistics skill is deteriorating after being out of college for too long.