It is that time of the quarter again. The second quarter 2019 GDP will be released by the Department of Statistics next week, on August 16 2019. Malaysia’s 2Q19 industrial production growth so far has been stronger than it was in the first quarter. For illustration, April and May factory output expanded 4.0% year-on-year each. […]

The 2019 first quarter GDP will be out on May 16. Since we live in an age of trigger warning, let us play the game first: The consensus views are that growth for the quarter will be weak, possibly in the lower half of the 4.0%-5.0% range. Some are even betting on something lower. There […]

It is the final GDP release before the year goes to the dogs! The Department of Statistics will announce the fourth quarter figures tomorrow at noon. Before that, let us play a game: For some context, the year 2017 was a pretty good year for GDP growth. It came after a pretty bad two-year period […]

I have been slacking off a little bit. My models have not been updated as frequently as it should. Reason is, one fine March day, something wiped the models out. Electrons arranged neatly disintegrated into disorder, destroying the microfoundations (heh!) of my models. I have backup files, but updating them is a tedious exercise. So, my projections, especially […]

Malaysian exports continue to take a hit. This time, it contracted by close to 6% in May. Imports also decreased. Those domestic cylinders better get going.

Export and import numbers for December 2012 do not look good. Export contracted by 5.8% while imports decreased by 6.5% from a year ago. Despite the bad numbers, industrial production index grew by 3.7% from a year ago. I find this curious. Import contracted and that means the domestic economy might have slowed down. Exports […]

The fourth quarter of 2009 saw Malaysian economy recorded strong recovery on year-on-year basis.[1] So strong it was that the monetary authority of Malaysia went for a rate hike, making Malaysia the second country after Australia to adopt a hawkish monetary policy.[2] The question that should be asked now is, did we need the big […]

Economics has been labeled as some sort of a discipline that predicts the future. The application of various models and efforts at testing its various hypotheses that sometimes result in the affirmative may have contributed to that reputation but it is not about predicting the future. Rather, it is about finding lessons from the past, […]

Apparently, the second quarter GDP results came out way better than expected. Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Malaysia’s economy is expected to resume growth this year after slipping into its first recession in a decade last quarter, mirroring recoveries across Asia. Gross domestic product shrank a less-than-expected 3.9 percent in the three months ended June from […]

The Economist reviews economist Dani Rodrik’s latest work: The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of ”export-led growth”, which served countries like South Korea so well. […]

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