{"id":3931,"date":"2009-04-29T20:21:22","date_gmt":"2009-04-29T12:21:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=3931"},"modified":"2009-04-30T23:42:21","modified_gmt":"2009-04-30T15:42:21","slug":"1965-of-malaysian-recovery-began-in-february","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=3931","title":{"rendered":"[1965] Of Malaysian recovery began in February?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some concrete evidence that the economy may have recovered faster than expected:<\/p>\n

\n

The Coincident Index (CI) rose by 0.5% in February 2009. The increase of the index was mainly contributed by real sales in manufacturing sector (0.5%), real salaries & wages in manufacturing sector (0.2%) and real contributions in EPF (0.2%). The six-month smoothed growth rate of CI showed a slight improvement to -9.8% from -11.9% recorded in the previous month.<\/p>\n

The Leading Index (LI) which monitor the economic performance in advance also increased in February 2009. The index grew by 1.1% to 158.2 points in the current month. These were attributed by real total trade of eight major trading partners (0.5%), number of new companies registered (0.5%), Bursa Malaysia industrial index (0.1%) and number of housing permits approved (0.1%). The six-month smoothed growth rate of LI improved -0.7% in February 2009.<\/p>\n

The six-month smoothed growth rate of Leading Index (LI) and Coincident Index (CI) showed a slight improvement in February 2009. However, it is too early to conclude that the improvement of these index provide signal of the slow economic growth to be over in the near term. [Malaysia Economic Indicators – Leading, Coincident And Lagging Indices February 2009<\/em><\/a>. Department of Statistics. April 29 2009]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

If indeed the economy began its recovery in February, it would provide a damning evidence proving the worthlessness of fiscal stimuli announced earlier. Why?<\/p>\n

By February, there was no real spending with respect to the first fiscal stimulus and money only beginning to be distributed among various ministries. That is of course with the exception of the RM5 billion given to ValueCap but we can safely discount that RM5 billion because throwing money in the equity market is like hoping to raise the sea level by throwing is a pabble.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the second stimulus was yet to be announced.<\/p>\n

In other words, the economy might be recovering even without the stimulus packages so celebrated by Malaysian Keynesians. But as mentioned by the Department of Statistics, it is still too earlier to confirm the worthlessness of economic stimuli. Let us wait for March first.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, I am taking bets that March data is going to confirm February’s trend!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some concrete evidence that the economy may have recovered faster than expected: The Coincident Index (CI) rose by 0.5% in February 2009. The increase of the index was mainly contributed by real sales in manufacturing sector (0.5%), real salaries & wages in manufacturing sector (0.2%) and real contributions in EPF (0.2%). The six-month smoothed growth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[129,118,59],"class_list":["post-3931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-business-cycle","tag-economic-indicator","tag-stimulus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3931"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3931\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3953,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3931\/revisions\/3953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}