{"id":11936,"date":"2014-02-13T12:28:34","date_gmt":"2014-02-13T04:28:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=11936"},"modified":"2014-02-13T13:14:42","modified_gmt":"2014-02-13T05:14:42","slug":"2725-malaysias-4q13-gdp-figures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=11936","title":{"rendered":"[2725] Malaysia’s 4Q13 GDP figures"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was optimistic that the 4Q13 GDP figures would be strong. I was betting on export recovery while mindful that other components, mostly consumption growth, might slow down.<\/p>\n

Indeed export growth recovered. But trade surplus was not as strong I thought it would. Still, the prospect of Malaysia experiencing a trade deficit is unlikely. The trade surplus was strong enough for me to say, hey, there would be no twin deficits for Malaysia, no siree.<\/p>\n

So, I missed by full-year growth by about 18 basis points. I projected 4.9% growth (well, more like 4.86%) for 2013 but actual growth came at 4.7% (4.68% really).<\/p>\n

While the 5.1% YoY for the quarter was still good, especially given the first two quarters had about 3% YoY only, this is one of those quarters which I find growth confusing.<\/p>\n

I looked at the numbers and I saw consumption growth slowed, gross fixed capital formation growth slowed, government spending growth slowed and trade balance growth slowed too. I think the exports growth is the only real good news around, but clearly it was not strong enough to make overall growth accelerate.<\/p>\n

Now, with every one of those major components had their quarterly YoY growth slowed, what could possible make the overall GDP numbers grew faster?<\/p>\n

Inventories had a role in it.<\/p>\n

You could see the contribution of all the GDP components to the 5.1% growth below. For the investment contribution, it is the fixed capital formation, which includes inventories:<\/p>\n

\"20140213<\/p>\n

I am not so sure how I feel about that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was optimistic that the 4Q13 GDP figures would be strong. I was betting on export recovery while mindful that other components, mostly consumption growth, might slow down. Indeed export growth recovered. But trade surplus was not as strong I thought it would. Still, the prospect of Malaysia experiencing a trade deficit is unlikely. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[304],"class_list":["post-11936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-gdp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11936"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11947,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11936\/revisions\/11947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}