{"id":11543,"date":"2013-05-22T16:14:46","date_gmt":"2013-05-22T08:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=11543"},"modified":"2013-05-22T16:28:08","modified_gmt":"2013-05-22T08:28:08","slug":"2689-dear-soon-to-be-minister-it-is-y-o-y-not-q-o-q","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=11543","title":{"rendered":"[2689] Dear soon-to-be minister, it is y-o-y, not q-o-q"},"content":{"rendered":"

The soon-to-be Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department overseeing the Economic Planning Unit Abdul Wahid Omar commented on the 1Q real GDP growth earlier this week. He said:<\/p>\n

\u201dThe gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was a bit slow, but that’s reflective of the economic activities which are typically slower (in this period),\u201d\u009d Wahid said. [Liz Lee.\u00a0Wahid: M\u2019sia growth prospects still bright, will be driven by Govt identified projects<\/a>. The Star.<\/em> May 21 2013]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That is untrue. He has very likely confused his base.<\/p>\n

It is true on quarter-on-quarter basis that 1Q tends to grow slower than the other quarters but the 4.1% is not measured on quarter-on-quarter basis. Instead, it is measured on year-on-year basis which pretty much controls the seasonality that bedevils quarter-on-quarter measurement (by the way, seasonality makes unadjusted quarter-on-quarter measurement unhelpful in most cases).<\/p>\n

If you take a look for the past 11 years or so, there is not enough evidence to show that it is typical for year-on-year growth of 1Q RGDP to be slower than other quarters. You can see it for yourself:<\/p>\n

\"20130522GDP1Qtypicalgrowth\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In fact, the more than 10% growth that some BN politicians liked to crow without contextual understanding happened in 1Q2010.<\/p>\n

I hope whatever he said to the media was an honest slip of the tongue mistake. Otherwise, his term as a minister will be full of statistical controversies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The soon-to-be Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department overseeing the Economic Planning Unit Abdul Wahid Omar commented on the 1Q real GDP growth earlier this week. He said: \u201dThe gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was a bit slow, but that’s reflective of the economic activities which are typically slower (in this […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[1616,304],"class_list":["post-11543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-abdul-wahid-omar","tag-gdp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11543"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11555,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11543\/revisions\/11555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}