{"id":10743,"date":"2012-10-01T17:48:36","date_gmt":"2012-10-01T09:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=10743"},"modified":"2012-10-02T20:15:02","modified_gmt":"2012-10-02T12:15:02","slug":"2605-how-well-does-the-government-forecast-its-expenditure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/?p=10743","title":{"rendered":"[2605] How well does the government project its expenditure?"},"content":{"rendered":"

After reading a number of commentaries in the market, in the Malaysian econosphere and various research houses’ research papers, I became curious of the accuracy if government projection with respect to its finance. I was also curious at how serious I should take the government’s plan to cut its expenditure<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, here is part of the answer.<\/p>\n

Below is the percentage deviation of actual total expenditure from budgeted expenditure all the way back to 2000. I obtained the budget data from various Economic Reports<\/em> published by the Ministry of Finance and the actual expenditure from BNM Monthly Statistiscal Bulletin<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

On average, the government underestimates its own expenditure by 8.6%. From the graph, it is quite clear that there is a unrandom negative bias in the projection. Even if you remove 2008 (which is an outlier, and potentially 2009 too), the average does not change by much.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After reading a number of commentaries in the market, in the Malaysian econosphere and various research houses’ research papers, I became curious of the accuracy if government projection with respect to its finance. I was also curious at how serious I should take the government’s plan to cut its expenditure. So, here is part of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[988,1111,43,500],"class_list":["post-10743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-federal-budget","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-government-spending","tag-projection"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10743"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10747,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10743\/revisions\/10747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/maddruid.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}