Categories
Economics Environment

[2137] Of 40% cut in carbon intensity may not be something to shout about

Bernama wrongfully reported that the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak, put up a conditional offer to cut 40% of Malaysia’s 2005 carbon emissions by 2020.[1] The same goes with the New Straits Times, except it did it more badly by not directly quoting the Prime Minister.[2] This is sloppy reporting. The truth is that it is a conditional cut of 40% to Malaysia’s carbon emissions intensity in terms of GDP within the base and time frame mentioned. Regardless of the inaccuracy, is the cut impressive?

The size of the cut seems big but cutting carbon emissions intensity is a lot easier than cutting outright carbon emissions; a cut in emissions is more expensive than a cut in carbon intensity. Achieving 5% cut as demanded by Kyoto is a lot harder than 5% cut in carbon intensity. The difference is clearer when one takes note that emissions itself can increase even under a situation of decreasing carbon intensity.

A demostration is in order. The most convenient way of showing this is by using intensity per capita as a unit rather than per GDP. In order words, this refers to emissions per person.

Assume that the emissions per person is 2 and there are a total of 10 persons in a neighborhood. The total emissions is therefore 20.

Assume further than emissions per person improves to 1.5 and total population increase to 15. Total emissions gets worse: it is now 22.5.

A cut in emissions will address total emissions. A cut in carbon intensity does not guarantee that.

A concrete example is the United Kingdom. According to the National Environmental Technology Centre of the UK, total emissions fell slightly between 1990 and 2005. Carbon intensity? It fell more or less by 40%. [3]

Hence, the act of stressing the difference is not a matter of splitting hair.

Carbon intensity has the tendency to decrease over time due to application of technology. The typical criticism directed at any commitment at reducing carbon intensity is that even without such commitment, carbon intensity will decrease anyway. This is especially true for developing countries where there is a lot of space for technological improvement through by merely copying.

Given this, the Prime Minister’s conditional offer is not something to shout about. China also made an offer to cut carbon intensity and it has been rightly criticized for trumpeting an unremarkable target and then demanding moral authority at the negotiation table in Copenhagen during the 15th Conference of the Parties that ended recently.

(Despite this tendency, Malaysia’s carbon intensity between 1990 and 2004 increased. I suspect a Kuznets curve.[4] The ratio may increase up to a certain level before decreasing. Malaysia after all was industrializing during the 1990s and now, Malaysia is largely done with industrialization.)

It should only be seen as a brilliant diplomatic maneuver and not a big effort at cutting emissions. It is brilliant not just because that the commitment is very likely to be achieved anyway and thus, making the offerers look good, it is brilliant because it makes demand for aid — and making the exercise cheaper than it would — even when the cut in carbon intensity is very likely to be achieved without any binding commitment.

This is not to dismiss the importance of cut in carbon intensity. I myself believe that technology is the answer to climate change but it is important to get the right message across while the Malaysian mass media failed the public miserably.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — COPENHAGEN, Dec 17 (Bernama) — Malaysia has agreed to reduce its carbon dioxide emission to 40 per cent by the year 2020 compared to the 2005 levels subject to assistance from developed countries.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said the cut was conditional on receiving the transfer of technology and adequate financing from the developed world.

“I would like to announce here in Copenhagen that Malaysia is adopting an indicator of a voluntary reduction of up to 40 per cent in terms of emissions intensity of GDP (gross domestic product) by the year 2020 compared to 2005 levels,” he said in his speech at the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 here, on Thursday,

United Nations data shows Malaysia’s carbon emissions in 2006 stood at 187 million tonnes or 7.2 tonnes from each Malaysian. [Malaysia Announces Conditional 40 Per Cent Cut In Emissions. Bernama. December 17 2009]

[2] — PM Najib says Malaysia is committed to do its best in combatting climate change.

MALAYSIA will voluntarily slash by up to 40 per cent her carbon emission by 2020 compared with 2005 levels.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who made this commitment yesterday, said the cut was part of Malaysia’s contribution to global efforts to combat climate change. [40 per cent reduction of carbon emission by 2020. Mimi Syed Yusof. New Straits Times. December 18 2009]

[2] — COPENHAGEN: A roadmap towards realising the 40% reduction of carbon emission per capita from the 2005 level by 2020 will be presented to the Cabinet soon. [40 per cent reduction of carbon emission by 2020. Mimi Syed Yusof. New Straits Times. December 18 2009]

[3] — [Page 18 and 19. Carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in the UK. The National Environmental Technology Centre]

[4] — See Kuznets Curve at Wikipedia. Accessed on December 25 2009.

Categories
Economics Environment

[2131] Of compensation yes but there are concerns

It appears that Malaysia and other similar countries with significant forest cover may end up as winners out of the ongoing 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Whether these set of countries will be net winners are another matter altogether but as far as compensation for maintaining forest cover, or within the context of COP15, carbon sink goes, reports are coming out that this is one aspect that is going pretty well.[1]

The economics behind such compensation is as sound as the economics behind carbon tax or cap and trade. It is about pricing externality.

The difference between such compensation and carbon tax or cap and trade is that the former addresses positive externality while the latter addresses negative externality. That is in econolese. In English, it means paying someone for doing something that affects others in a good way and penalizing someone for doing something that affects others in a bad way. It is about accounting for spillover effect. In a way, it is a full cost accounting.

While I am excited at seeing an economic theory being put into practice, I am curious at how exactly will it be implemented. The biggest issue here is related to opportunity cost. The compensation will have to be big enough to address the problem of opportunity cost faced by owners of forest.

Some forested land may not be opened even without compensation. That put the opportunity cost of such land very low. I would imagine, some countries would not admit to that and instead, would overestimate their opportunity cost. It is not hard to come up with a plan to open up new land, project its economic value to some monstrous value that could be outrageous compared to actual situation and have that as the opportunity cost.

I know, forest has its inherent value. I am sympathetic to that argument. Inherent value however is hard to measure, and no one will pay for it despite all the sound moral argument defending it. The best way to price forest by its concrete opportunity cost: what other alternatives are possible to have a covered land and what is the value of that alternatives?

While I do support such compensation, these concerns must be resolved conclusively. Else, the arrangement will be a farce that only redistribute wealth unfairly.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

[1] — COPENHAGEN — Negotiators have all but completed a sweeping deal that would compensate countries for preserving forests, and in some cases, other natural landscapes like peat soils, swamps and fields that play a crucial role in curbing climate change. [Climate Talks Near Deal to Save Forests. Elisabeth Rosenthal. New York Times. December 15 2009]

Categories
Environment Politics & government

[1474] Of hero of the COP 13

The US changed its mind after this was uttered (via):

We ask for your leadership. We seek your leadership. But if for some reason you’re not willing to lead, leave it to the rest of us. Please get out of the way.

— Kevin Conrad, Papua New Guinea.

For background:

After two weeks of intense discussions and bitter wrangling, delegates from over 180 nations at the Bali climate summit reached agreement on a two-year “roadmap” for finding a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

The last-minute deal came on Saturday after the US delegation made a U-turn in a final negotiating session. The US had opposed a proposal by the G77 bloc, which represents developing countries, for rich nations to do more to help the developing world combat increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

Paula Dobriansky, leader of the US delegation, and her colleague James Connaughton found themselves the targets of naked animosity. When Dobriansky announced that the US would not sign up for the Bali roadmap, boos echoed through the room. The Americans were sharply attacked by several delegations. “If you’re not willing to lead, please get out of the way,” said a US environmental activist representing Papua New Guinea.

Other opponents of binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as Japan or Russia, failed to come to the US delegation’s defense. Left isolated, the American delegation gave in and agreed to the roadmap. “We will go forward and join consensus,” said Dobriansky. This time the delegation was rewarded with a standing ovation from some participants. [Climate Change Deal Reached after US U-Turn. Spiegel. December 15 2007]

There still a long way to go but we are marching on to 2012. But what exactly were achieved?

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS:

It recognizes that “deep cuts” in global emissions will be required to prevent dangerous human interference in the climate. It references scientific reports that suggest a range of cuts between 25 and 40 percent by 2020, but prescribes no such targets itself.

DEADLINE:

Negotiations for the next climate accord should last for two years and conclude in 2009 in order to allow enough time to implement it at the end of 2012. Four major climate meetings will take place next year.

RICH AND POOR:

Negotiators should consider binding reductions of gas emissions by industrialized countries, while developing countries should consider moves to control the growth of their emissions. Richer countries should work to transfer climate-friendly technology to poorer nations.

ADJUSTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

Negotiators should look at supporting urgent steps to help poorer countries adapt to inevitable effects of global warming, such as building seawalls to guard against rising oceans.

DEFORESTATION:

Negotiators should consider “positive incentives” for reducing deforestation in developing countries, many of which are seeking international compensation for preserving their forest “sinks” absorbing carbon dioxide. [A Look at the Bali Climate Change Plan. Associated Press via NYT. December 15 2007]

The last point, which essentially the internalization of positive (i.e. living trees) and negative externalities (i.e. loss of carbon sink) though on theory is fantastic, in practice, pricing might be tough or even expensive if done properly. The reason is, the forest should be priced as high as the most productive activities that cause deforestation. This means that those that enjoy positive externality and suffer negative externality from forest and deforestation need not only to match returns from the timber industry but also from industries such as agriculture. This would mean the full compensation could amount to billions.

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

p/s — I have just realized this:

Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

— Thomas Paine (January 29, 1737 — June 8, 1809)

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved

pp/s — Or more explicitly…

Categories
Environment History & heritage Science & technology

[1076] Of AR4: Eroding uncertainty

According to the NYT, in the First Assessment Report (AR1) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published in 1990:

The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.

In the AR2 of 1995:

The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate.

AR3 of 2001:

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

AR4, 2007:

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Categories
Environment Science & technology

[1075] Of AR4 is out: humanity is very likely to cause the current climate change

The much awaited first part of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is out. The copy is not yet available at the IPCC website and so I have not read it but according to the BBC:

Climatic changes seen around the world are “very likely” to have a human cause, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded.

By “very likely”, the IPCC means greater than 90% probability.

The scientific body, in a report to be released formally today, forecasts temperatures will probably rise by between 1.8-4C (3.2-7.2F) by 2100.

Uncertainty, you say?

Further:

As discussions entered their final phase, the journal Science published a study comparing the IPCC’s 2001 projections on temperature and sea level change with what has actually happened.

IPCC models start from the year 1990, so that gives 16 years of data to compare.

The models had forecast a temperature rise between about 0.15 and 0.35C over this period. The actual rise of 0.33C is very close to the top of the IPCC’s range.

Graphically:

Copyrights by the BBC. Fair use.

There are scientists that insist the AR4 underestimates future sea level rise. At the New York Times:

In a brief report in today’s issue of the journal Science, an array of leading climate researchers said recent findings “raise concern that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly than climate models indicate.”

[…]

Dr. Shindell, who emphasized that he was speaking as an individual, said, “The melting of Greenland has been accelerating so incredibly rapidly that the I.P.C.C. report will already be out of date in predicting sea level rise, which will probably be much worse than is predicted in the I.P.C.C. report.”

James McCarthy, a climate expert at Harvard who was a leader in the 2001 assessment, noted in an e-mail message that the panel’s report could be changed until the moment it was made public. Nevertheless, he said he worried that unless its discussion of sea level rise was altered, the panel would so underestimate the problem that it would look “foolishly cautious and maybe even irrelevant” on the issue.

Also at the NYT:

With the clock ticking down and translators juggling six official languages, and government representatives trying to ensure that findings do not clash with national interests, tussles have intensified between climate experts and political appointees from participating governments.

Scientists involved in the discussions said today that the U.S. delegation, led by political appointees, was pressing to play down language pointing to a link between intensification of hurricanes and warming caused by human activity.

[…]

Some scientists are suggesting that the very search for consensus may now be distracting from the need for action.

That particular article reminds me of Leggett’s The Carbon War.

Regardless, can we act now?

Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reserved Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams. Some rights reservedp/s — the summary for policymakers (SPM) of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has been published. Let us read it together. If you are interested in comparing the SPM for AR4 with the previous one, do read the 2001 SPM at the UNEP. I also have the full SPM AR3 if you are interested.