September was not a pretty month for Malaysian exports. Exports for the month fell 6.8% from a year ago. When seasonally-adjusted, it still dropped 3.6% month-on-month. The decline was definitely caused by lower export volume, which points towards weaker global demand. But we know this already: trade war is bad for Malaysia. Once it gets […]

The 2019 first quarter GDP will be out on May 16. Since we live in an age of trigger warning, let us play the game first: The consensus views are that growth for the quarter will be weak, possibly in the lower half of the 4.0%-5.0% range. Some are even betting on something lower. There […]

It is the final GDP release before the year goes to the dogs! The Department of Statistics will announce the fourth quarter figures tomorrow at noon. Before that, let us play a game: For some context, the year 2017 was a pretty good year for GDP growth. It came after a pretty bad two-year period […]

I have been slacking off a little bit. My models have not been updated as frequently as it should. Reason is, one fine March day, something wiped the models out. Electrons arranged neatly disintegrated into disorder, destroying the microfoundations (heh!) of my models. I have backup files, but updating them is a tedious exercise. So, my projections, especially […]

There is something quite weird going on in the imports data. In the last quarter, we all know we had GST for the first time. It replaced an older consumption tax. After all have been said and done, the effective rate was higher than it was under the old regime. That means higher tax. You could also […]

Among those who oppose the TPP in Malaysia, the US is on their crosshair, always. The opposition is so US-centric that I wonder whether they are anti-TPP, or anti-US. Malaysia has signed several other FTAs in the past years and negotiating more but you do not hear any complaint against those. Among the pro-TPP too, whether it is about […]

Malaysian exports continue to take a hit. This time, it contracted by close to 6% in May. Imports also decreased. Those domestic cylinders better get going.

The United States Federal Reserve has come under criticism for its third round of quantitative easing – or QE3 – from many countries, especially emerging ones, who are concerned it will lead to the creation of asset bubbles that will cause problems within their economies. What will be the effect of this QE3 on Singapore’s […]

The Nuclear Security Summit in Washington D.C. suggests that Malaysia is siding with the United States with respect to the issue of Iran and nuclear proliferation. Apparently, even before the meeting between Prime Minister Najib Razak and President Barack Obama, Petronas, the state petroleum enterprise of Malaysia, has ceased shipping of gasoline to Iran in early March, […]

There are a lot of things to be optimistic about. The recent increased in Malaysian net exports however is not one of them. The increase is due to fallen imports. That is generally bad and especially so within Malaysian context. So, I will find my blood pressure spikes slightly whenever I read in the news […]

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