We are back and tomorrow, the Department of Statistics Malaysia will be releasing the second quarter GDP figures. Without further ado… And… what. A. Ride. It. Has. Been. Politics. Economics. The result is… there is no doubt the second quarter GDP figures will be terrible with a capital T. The question now will be by […]

We are experiencing a supply-side crisis. The lockdown is inducing labor shortage, and it has the potential of exerting lasting damage on the economy if not handled properly. It seems to me that the last time Malaysia or any of its components had a supply crisis was in the 1940s during World War II and […]

I have been slacking off a little bit. My models have not been updated as frequently as it should. Reason is, one fine March day, something wiped the models out. Electrons arranged neatly disintegrated into disorder, destroying the microfoundations (heh!) of my models. I have backup files, but updating them is a tedious exercise. So, my projections, especially […]

January inflation clocked at only 1.0% from a year ago while in December it was 2.7%. That was a pretty drastic slowdown that I bet someone will cry deflation wolf somewhere soon. The cause of the slackening is easy to explain. It is unambiguously due to the drop in retail petrol and diesel prices. RON95 […]

There is a curious logic going in the market and I am guilty of it myself. I only realized of my contradictory views only after I read a view claiming deflation encourages consumption spending (Austrians…) and asked myself a few questions about inflation/deflation. To properly highlight what I see as a contradiction, answer the following […]

Next »