Blog Archives

From time to time, economic statistics get revised. Usually statisticians require a lot of time to compile data and in that mad rush, certain data could left out first and included only later when everybody gets a chance to reflect. There is nothing structural about the revision. It is just about errors, corrections and business […]

The Malaysian GDP figures released yesterday suggest there was indeed a pre-GST spending spree. Private consumption growth was phenomenal especially if you consider the fact that previous quarterly growth figures have been slowly dropping gradually over the past year from 8% year-on-year to all the way down to mid-6% in the third quarter of 2014. The […]

The Malaysian federal government appears committed to cutting its fiscal deficit down to 3.0% of NGDP by 2015 (from 3.9% in 2013) and then balancing it by 2020. I think the 2015 target is achievable, especially with the GST coming in next year. As for the 2020 goal, that is far into the future to matter right now (in […]

I was optimistic that the 4Q13 GDP figures would be strong. I was betting on export recovery while mindful that other components, mostly consumption growth, might slow down. Indeed export growth recovered. But trade surplus was not as strong I thought it would. Still, the prospect of Malaysia experiencing a trade deficit is unlikely. The […]

The GDP in the third quarter grew respectably at 5.0% from the same quarter last year. I think it is the most satisfying growth in a long time. I have not checked for the base effect but consumption grew strongly and net exports did well. It was a plain old growth in the simplest terms, […]

I have not been this optimistic in a long time. I was right for being bearish for 1Q2013 and 2Q2013. I have also mentioned that 2Q growth would have been much worse if it was not for government spending. Even for the 4Q2012 when actual growth beat all estimates, I was not too impressed. Only the politicians were […]

This chart can be a bit confusing but it essentially shows the contribution of the four GDP components to Malaysia’s overall real GDP growth. This is exactly the reason why I said it was all government spending previously (okay, all is not exactly accurate. It was a significant contributor, if you like). You can see how […]

Malaysia’s GDP grew 4.3% YoY in the second quarter of 2013, slightly faster than 4.1% YoY in the previous quarter. While it is faster growth, I find the numbers worrying because if it was not for government spending, overall growth would have been much worse. Investment growth was down, private consumption was down and exports […]

It is that time again. Malaysia’s Department of Statistics will release the second quarter GDP figures on August 21. Growth in the first quarter was 4.1% YoY no thanks to eroded trade surplus. Domestic demand however held up well and prevented the growth figure from being worse. The situation on the trade surplus front has […]

The soon-to-be Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department overseeing the Economic Planning Unit Abdul Wahid Omar commented on the 1Q real GDP growth earlier this week. He said: “The gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter was a bit slow, but that’s reflective of the economic activities which are typically slower (in this […]

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