The first quarter 2017 Malaysian GDP figures will be out on May 19. So… Industrial production in 1Q17 did not grow as strongly as it did in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, manufacturing had swell of a time. Trade figures were very good, with both goods exports and imports grew double digits, which indicates both the […]

The final quarterly GDP figures will out next week on February 16. The GDP grew 4.3% YoY in the third quarter, up from 4.0% YoY in 2Q16. In the first quarter of 2016, it was 4.2% YoY. So, as the game goes… Judging from industrial and import figures, I would think the domestic demand part […]

The Department of Statistics will release the third quarter GDP numbers this Friday. Growth, I think, unlikely to be pretty and will likely be the worst so far yet this year. This slowdown has lasted longer than I expected but the good news is, I think we might be close to the trough. There is not much […]

The GDP growth for the second quarter decelerated further to 4.0% YoY from 1Q16’s 4.2% YoY. But the most interesting GDP component ever since the GST was implemented in April 2015 is private consumption. And there was a huge jump in that part of the equation. The 2Q16 private consumption expanded 6.3% YoY from 5.3% YoY in […]

I have been slacking off a little bit. My models have not been updated as frequently as it should. Reason is, one fine March day, something wiped the models out. Electrons arranged neatly disintegrated into disorder, destroying the microfoundations (heh!) of my models. I have backup files, but updating them is a tedious exercise. So, my projections, especially […]

The 4Q15 GDP figures came out better than my expectation. I had projected about 4.3% YoY but the official figure came slightly higher at 4.5% YoY. However, it is still an overall slowdown as warned earlier. But there is a good news here. The blue line in the chart above representing consumption growth picked up. That is a green shoot, a […]

The Department of Statistics will release the GDP figures for the last quarter of 2015 tomorrow. I fear we will see the ugliest numbers within the past three years, if we are lucky. It will not be a contraction but for a country like Malaysia — a young population which suggests strong potential growth — anything […]

Growth in 2Q15 was bad but we know it due to the GST with all the front-loading spending. The question now is, was the GST largely the one exerting negative pressure on growth? In a very superficial way, growth should rebound in 3Q15 if the answer to the question is in the affirmative because it suggests consumption […]

Apart from the slowdown in consumption, I was wrong. The Malaysian GDP grew 4.9% from a year ago, considerably higher than what I thought it would be at 4.1%-4.2% YoY. Still, economic growth is decelerating quite drastically. Trade surplus did not improve as exports contracted worse than imports, and not the other way round as I wrote […]

The Malaysian GDP figures for the 2015 second quarter will be out next week on Thursday. I think it will be bad because of how the GST has hit consumption. This will be the focus next week as people write out their commentary. I am a believer of the frontloading theory but admittedly there are some problems with it as […]

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