The 4Q15 GDP figures came out better than my expectation. I had projected about 4.3% YoY but the official figure came slightly higher at 4.5% YoY. However, it is still an overall slowdown as warned earlier. But there is a good news here. The blue line in the chart above representing consumption growth picked up. That is a green shoot, a […]

Apart from the slowdown in consumption, I was wrong. The Malaysian GDP grew 4.9% from a year ago, considerably higher than what I thought it would be at 4.1%-4.2% YoY. Still, economic growth is decelerating quite drastically. Trade surplus did not improve as exports contracted worse than imports, and not the other way round as I wrote […]

There is something quite weird going on in the imports data. In the last quarter, we all know we had GST for the first time. It replaced an older consumption tax. After all have been said and done, the effective rate was higher than it was under the old regime. That means higher tax. You could also […]

January inflation clocked at only 1.0% from a year ago while in December it was 2.7%. That was a pretty drastic slowdown that I bet someone will cry deflation wolf somewhere soon. The cause of the slackening is easy to explain. It is unambiguously due to the drop in retail petrol and diesel prices. RON95 […]

The Malaysian GDP figures released yesterday suggest there was indeed a pre-GST spending spree. Private consumption growth was phenomenal especially if you consider the fact that previous quarterly growth figures have been slowly dropping gradually over the past year from 8% year-on-year to all the way down to mid-6% in the third quarter of 2014. The […]

There is a curious logic going in the market and I am guilty of it myself. I only realized of my contradictory views only after I read a view claiming deflation encourages consumption spending (Austrians…) and asked myself a few questions about inflation/deflation. To properly highlight what I see as a contradiction, answer the following […]

There are a lot of things to be optimistic about. The recent increased in Malaysian net exports however is not one of them. The increase is due to fallen imports. That is generally bad and especially so within Malaysian context. So, I will find my blood pressure spikes slightly whenever I read in the news […]