Has austerity failed? In the sense of expansionary fiscal contraction, it has. Expansionary fiscal contraction, in short, suggests that government contraction will immediately expand the private sector. That particular interpretation of fiscal austerity has clearly failed to bear out in countries under crisis. It is like the argument that says reducing taxes will increase government […]

Does anybody know why the leading indicator went up in October? I see the money supply went up, which means demand for money went up, which in turn suggests there were increase in economic activities. But why?

There are always victims in an economic recession. It can push individuals into desperation and force them potentially to do something that they would not otherwise do. It can turn the man on the streets into a criminal. There is a relationship between economic recessions and unemployment rates and there is a relationship between unemployment […]

There have been talks of recession hitting the United States again. Extremely shocking manufacturing data from the US today is probably partly fueling the talks. Although prediction is a risky game, there are various indicators one can use to gauge the likelihood of a recession. One of them is the US treasury yield curve. An inverted yield […]

For some economists, such as Prescott (1996), the renewed interest in growth over the last 20 years stems from their belief that business cycle fluctuations ”˜are not costly to society’ and that it is more important for economists to worry about ”˜increasing the rate of increase in economy-wide productivity and not smoothing business fluctuations’. This […]

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