The Malaysian GDP figures for the 2015 second quarter will be out next week on Thursday.
I think it will be bad because of how the GST has hit consumption. This will be the focus next week as people write out their commentary. I am a believer of the frontloading theory but admittedly there are some problems with it as I have highlighted yesterday: consumption imports have been growing strongly much against expectations.
The trend in trade is not great either. The funny thing is trade surplus is improving in the quarter. The widening is not something to be celebrated however. Imports raced against exports to the bottom. Imports won that race no thanks to weak consumption. But that should push the GDP up a bit.
The industrial index has been doing quite well despite the gloom all around. That is another funky stats that refuse to line up cleanly. The excellent EconsMalaysia believes it is really inventory build-up. That hypothesis can easily be assessed with the GDP figures.
I think, the only real good news will come from investment, especially with the Petronas Pengerang project down south. I have been there myself and it is truly massive. Still, I struggle to think of any other new big public infrastructure project that started recently. I have not heard any large scale work for the Pan-Borneo Highway despite earlier fanfare. MRT and LRT are old news. New water treatment plant? Ask Selangor. New power plant? Ask 1MDB. There are some (an understatement?) residential construction in Danga Bay but…
I could talk about inflation but with the GST in the way, it is hard to be confident about the exact CPI message. My core inflation is out of whack. The Stats Department produces a seasonally-adjusted CPI series but I have no learned to trust it just yet.
On the balance, I think our GDP growth for 2Q15 will probably be in the region of 4.1%-4.2%. I think there is an upward risk with the the weirdness in import composition and the industrial index.
What do you think?
How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy grow in 2Q2015 from a year ago?
- 0%-2.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
- 2.1%-3.0% (17%, 3 Votes)
- 3.1%-4.0% (28%, 5 Votes)
- 4.1%-4.5% (39%, 7 Votes)
- 4.6%-5.0% (11%, 2 Votes)
- 5.1%-5.5% (0%, 0 Votes)
- 5.6%-6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
- Faster than 6.0% (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 18