So, trade surplus in the first quarter of 2013 very much contracted. Net exports in current prices were down by 44%. Although imports fared considerably better than exports in the quarter (hence the big drop in trade surplus), imports of consumption goods were weak, which may suggest that consumption itself slowed. Another bad news is that industrial production also did not grow. I do not think it was mostly due to the fact that 2012 was a leap year since March y-o-y figures were weak.

I am unsure about the investment figures but those investment figures are already high, thus making faster growth unrealistic.

On the plus side, government expenditure was likely up due to electioneering. But that part of the economy is the smallest among all of the components.

Whatever it is, that quarter growth will be significantly slower than the surprising 6.4% y-o-y achieved in 4Q2012. Consensus has it at 5.4% y-o-y according to Bloomberg. I have a feeling it will be lower.

How fast do you think did the Malaysian economy grow in 1Q2013?

  • Above 6.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.5% - 6.0% (6%, 1 Votes)
  • 5.0% - 5.4% (17%, 3 Votes)
  • 4.5% - 4.9% (33%, 6 Votes)
  • Below 4.5% (39%, 7 Votes)

Total Voters: 18

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The official GDP estimates will be released by the Department of Statistics on Wednesday’s evening.

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