How fast, do you think, did the Malaysian economy grow in the fourth quarter of 2012 in real terms from a year ago?

  • 6% and above (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 5.5%-5.9% (16%, 3 Votes)
  • 5.0%-5.4% (47%, 9 Votes)
  • 4.5%-4.9% (11%, 2 Votes)
  • 4.0%-4.4% (5%, 1 Votes)
  • Less than 4.0% (21%, 4 Votes)

Total Voters: 19

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Here is some background. Malaysian exports did badly in the fourth quarter. Europe and the US suffered from contraction at the same time.

Nevertheless, domestic demand appeared strong. Private consumption growth was likely pretty solid.

In the first, second and third quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.1%, 5.6% and 5.2% from a year ago respectively.

Out of 21 private economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the median estimate is 5.5% growth. The highest projection is 6.4%. The lowest is 4.3%. My own model estimates it to be 5.2% (this is based on old data and I have not touched it for almost two months).

But they are economists. What do they know, eh?

So, what is your favorite number?

The official GDP numbers will be released tomorrow by the Department of Statistics.

One Response to “[2662] Guess the GDP growth rate!”

  1. on 19 Feb 2013 at 23:43 hishamh

    Our team had three separate estimates -> 5.3, 5.3, 5.4. Standard error’s are about 0.5% and RMSE is about 0.3%-0.4%; based on the latter, GDP should come in at around 5.0%-5.6%.

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