February 8th, 2013 by Hafiz Noor Shams
Export and import numbers for December 2012 do not look good. Export contracted by 5.8% while imports decreased by 6.5% from a year ago. Despite the bad numbers, industrial production index grew by 3.7% from a year ago.
I find this curious. Import contracted and that means the domestic economy might have slowed down. Exports contracted too and that means external demand did not do too well either. So, industrial index should take a hit but it grew anyway, albeit slower than the 7.1% growth in November versus a year ago. It is possible that there is a lag between the index and trade figures but strong index number last month did not reflect in this month’s trade figures.
Maybe the inventory went up. The fourth quarter GDP figures will be released later this month. We will see what happened to the inventory soon.