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Economics

[2531] PEMANDU and its real significance to private investment

PEMANDU claims “confidence from the ETP saw private investment hit RM94 billion and RM131 billion worth of GNI generated in 2011.”

A bold claim.

Let us see the trend of private investment in the last 11 years.

Do you see anything special about 2010 and 2011?

What I see is only a reversion to mean. What I see is that there is something in the economy that causes that. That something is bigger than PEMANDU.

Note also that in 2009, there was a severe recession. What that means is that there was a temporary disruption, and the subsequent recovery was just a reversion to mean (i.e. delayed investment planned before the recession, or just typical investment that happens as the economy goes along that requires no further incentive), not because of PEMANDU.

Yet PEMANDU claims that it is the cause.

You know when PEMANDU can make that claims of theirs? When those points are significantly above the line. That will probably happen in 2012 or 2013 with the construction of the MRT. Until then, no.

The figures for private investment can be verified by consulting the Bank Negara’s Monthly Statistical Bulletin.

By Hafiz Noor Shams

For more about me, please read this.

2 replies on “[2531] PEMANDU and its real significance to private investment”

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

We have to understand the audience whom the announcement is for. Simpletons won’t read your blog, nor understand the concept of “reversion to mean”. Heck, they’ll even conveniently forget that 2009 was a year of economic slowdown. All they’ll read is that things are improving and Party X is responsible.

Ini semua tipu belaka hahaha.

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