Archive for the 'WDYT' Category

The final quarterly GDP figures will out next week on February 16. The GDP grew 4.3% YoY in the third quarter, up from 4.0% YoY in 2Q16. In the first quarter of 2016, it was 4.2% YoY. So, as the game goes… Judging from industrial and import figures, I would think the domestic demand part of […]

The Department of Statistics will release the third quarter GDP numbers this Friday. Growth, I think, unlikely to be pretty and will likely be the worst so far yet this year. This slowdown has lasted longer than I expected but the good news is, I think we might be close to the trough. There is not much […]

I have been slacking off a little bit. My models have not been updated as frequently as it should. Reason is, one fine March day, something wiped the models out. Electrons arranged neatly disintegrated into disorder, destroying the microfoundations (heh!) of my models. I have backup files, but updating them is a tedious exercise. So, my projections, especially […]

The Department of Statistics will release the GDP figures for the last quarter of 2015 tomorrow. I fear we will see the ugliest numbers within the past three years, if we are lucky. It will not be a contraction but for a country like Malaysia — a young population which suggests strong potential growth — anything […]

Growth in 2Q15 was bad but we know it due to the GST with all the front-loading spending. The question now is, was the GST largely the one exerting negative pressure on growth? In a very superficial way, growth should rebound in 3Q15 if the answer to the question is in the affirmative because it suggests consumption […]

UAE scored 10 goals against Malaysia in the World Cup qualification. That is right. Ten against none. It is such a happy coincidence given the 1MDB and Najib scandals. It is UAE of all countries, the country which somebody sold Malaysia to. But up next in the schedule, for September 8, is Saudi Arabia, which […]

The Malaysian GDP figures for the 2015 second quarter will be out next week on Thursday. I think it will be bad because of how the GST has hit consumption. This will be the focus next week as people write out their commentary. I am a believer of the frontloading theory but admittedly there are some problems with it as […]

Folks, the PAC wants to question Jho Low but the Ministry of Finance cannot find him. Let us help our beloved government find him!

It is that part of the week again when government-sanctioned mosques deliver government-prepared sermons to all Muslims beforeFriday prayer. Here, I give you a chance to guess what will the topic be today. Hurry. The sermon will be due in an hour. You can choose up to two options.

I have not been this optimistic in a long time. I was right for being bearish for 1Q2013 and 2Q2013. I have also mentioned that 2Q growth would have been much worse if it was not for government spending. Even for the 4Q2012 when actual growth beat all estimates, I was not too impressed. Only the politicians were […]

Next »